- India sweat on Abhishek
- Pakistan could unleash unorthodox Tariq
- RPS surface heavily favours chaser
- Pakistan have to be the value batting second
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India v Pakistan
Sunday 15 February, 13.30
TV: Live on Sky Sports
India v Pakistan T20WC team news
India are sweating on the fitness of Abhishek Sharma, who missed their win over Namibia with a stomach illness. Abhishek, expected to be the star of the tournament, has had a miserable time. He made a duck in his one appearance.
It does feel as though once Abhishek can return and fire, maybe India will do the same. They have produced two bizarre performances, firstly clinging on against USA and then a spectacular batting flop against the Namibians. They were on course for 300 but got in a terrible hole and posted 209.
India could deploy spin twins Kuldeep Yadav and Varun Chakravarthy on a spin-friendly pitch. But it would mean weakening their batting with Rinku Singh the most likely to make way.
Possible India XI: Ishan, Abhishek, Tilak, Sky, Hardik, Dube, Axar, Kuldeep, Varun, Arshdeep, Bumrah
Pakistan have bolstered their hopes of T20 World Cup glory by turning up. If they win, they progress to the Super Eights. If not they should still make it so long as they beat Namibia in their last game.
Selection will be fascinating. Do they go for pacer Salman Mirza or the controversial Usman Tariq? Both have the x-factor. Mirza is a wicket-taker with new-ball and old. Spinner Tariq has a start-stop action and then slings it wide like Lasith Malinga. Given the agitation between the two countries, India may try to unsettle Tariq by questioning his run-up and action in-game.
Possible Pakistan XI: Farhan, Ayub, Salman, Babar, Usman, Nawaz, Shadab, Faheem, Afridi, Abrar, Tariq
India v Pakistan T20WC pitch report
We are not expecting a runfest at the RPS, which has been slow and low. Spinners should be to the fore and any sort of score of 160 or more could hard to come by first up. The runs per overs in the 29 night matches is just 7.7. If we filter that to more recent matches (13 since 2021) the same trend occurs.
Pakistan are reliably stodgy with the bat so the opportunity to lay Pakistan at around the 2.206/5 mark for 160 or more is a starting point on the first dig runs market. That mark is under their average runs scored in the last 30 and also under the number India concede. Any sort of partnership for Pakistan in the front four wickets points to a sell at higher lines. They have a history of collapse against India, losing wickets in chunks. See the last World Cup when they went from 70-odd for to 113-7
India v Pakistan T20WC match prediction
This is the biggest betting event in the world. But with that comes hype and noise. There will be a lot of talk that Pakistan are hopeless in ICC events against India. And it is true that they have lost the last five. But that's more down to India's supreme ability and Pakistan not being very good. It has nothing to do with the suggestions of choking in the epic rivalry.
Until this bet goes down of course (wink). We are backing Pakistan to cause an upset but with a significant caveat. They absolutely have to chase to be considered value at 3.7011/4.
That is because there is a whopping bias for the chaser at the RPS in night matches. In the last 29, 21 have been won by the side fielding first. In the last 13 it is ten.
The surface should also help Pakistan in an attritional affair. The more spin the better for Pakistan and, if they wished, they could bowl 20 overs of it. More likely they go for at least 14. The toss bias and the surface reduce that ability gap significantly.
Back Pakistan batting second
India v Pakistan T20WC player tips
Mohammad Nawaz is a strong on top bowler for Pakistan on a conducive pitch for spinners. He has an excellent win rate and is closer to 7/24.50 than 11/26.50 on implied probability. For runs, Abhishek wins a rate of 38% on top bat and Sportsbook's 11/43.75 will be popular. We don't rule out 30-odd winning it, particularly for Pakistan. So lower-order batters at big numbers could be the way to go. Shadab Khan at 12s, Nawaz at 16s and Faheem Ashraf at 22/123.00 are all solid with stake sensible.