Pakistan v South Africa first T20 tips: Could Rawalpindi mean runs again?

• Rawalpindi pitch could be a road

• Pakistan recall for Babar Azam

• Miller ruled out for SA
• Side batting first to shorten by break

• Milestone betting for batters

Pakistan v South Africa
Tuesday 28 October, 15.00
TV: Live on PCB Live

Pakistan v South Africa First T20 team news

Pakistan have recalled Babar Azam in a sign that the drive to unleash a thrusting, aggressive batting line-up has been put on the back burner. Babar has not played in the format since facing South Africa in December last year. 

It's a reaction to chastening defeats by India in the Asia Cup. There's no Fakhar Zaman, Mohammad Haris, Haris Rauf or Hussain Talat in the squad. They do look light on big boy power to finish off an innings. Shaeen Afridi's batting remains overrated and he or Moihammad Wasim might bat at No 8 here.

Saim Ayub and Sahibzada Farhan seek consistency at the top of the order. It would be wise to use Babar at No 4 and allow Usman Khan licence for chaos at No 3.

Possible Pakistan XI: Ayub, Farhan, Babar/Usman, Salman, Nawaz, Faheem, Afridi, Wasim, Naseem, Abrar

South Africa have lost David Miller to a hamstring injury, robbing them of much-needed middle-order experience and leadership. Donovan Ferreira will captain a side which may be a hitter light. 

Reeza Hendricks, Lhuan-dre Pretorius and Quinton de Kock will be charged with fast starts and could move around as a top three. Much may rely on the strike rates of Ferriera and Dewald Brevis. Matt Breetzke and Tony de Zorzi has been called into the squad. We're not sure this is the format for the latter.

There is no Kagiso Rabada, Kwena Maphaka or Gerald Coetzee. Andile Simelane, the 22-year-old pacer, could be paired with either Lungi Ngidi or Lizaad WIlliams. Nqaba Peter will be the main spin threat 

Possible SA XI: Hendricks, Pretorius, De Kock, Breetzke, Brevis,  Ferreira, Bosch, Linde, Williams, Simelane, Peter

Pakistan v South Africa First T20 pitch report

There have been only eight T20i played in Rawalpindi with a cumulative run rate of 8.18. This is not data which backs up the evidence that it's been a road in the Pakistan Super League, although in two of the last three 194 and 173 have been chased with ease. In PSL in the last two years the run rate is a massive 9.47. 

The gamble, then, centres on whether we get a PSL pitch or a T20i one. If we go with the former then Sportsbook plays of interest include: South Africa runs at over 160.5 and over 12.5 sixes. Both are available at 5/61.84. There is also value on both teams to score markets. The 160 could be a gimme at 13/102.30 . Likewise both for 170 at 13/53.60. 

In terms of innings runs, more than 200 has been busted nine in the last 12 in PSL and it may be wise just to bet on runs first up on the Exchange. If Sportsbook prices are a guide the line could be low in the late 160s.

Pakistan v South Africa First T20 match prediction

Neither of these teams have been pulling up trees in this format in the last 12 months. Pakistan have 17 wins in 34, a slightly better win-loss ratio than South Africa who have seven in 17. Certainly the former stat suggests a stiff drink could be required if betting the hosts at significantly prohibitive match odds of 1.794/5.

There is a clear trade strategy, though, if we're right about the surface. To that end, waiting or a pitch report is shrewd. We're looking for a flat, straw- and clean-coloured wicket for big runs. If so, the side batting first should be short favourites at the break. That means South Africa can flip these odds. 

Due to the unreliable nature of the outfits it is best not to get involved with massive stakes. In-play, don't rule out big-odds comeback and keep the famous tie trade in mind from up to 40.039/1 into the teens.

Pakistan v South Africa First T20 player bets

Hendricks, back in the South Africa line-up after being unfairly dropped, is not a 4s chance on historic win rates for top team bat. He is one, however, that may need a few sighters before he can really get going so we don't want to be on the meter with him for every game. Babar has been boosted to 11/26.50 for top match bat. We do have to be aware, though, that if it's a flat 'Pindi pitch then milestone betting is the way to go. Hendricks and Babar are 4/15.00 and 9/43.25 respectively on that market. 

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