Caribbean Premier League Tips Matches Six and Seven: Three strong top-bat bets

• Patriots under pressure again

• Kings depleted but wrong price

• Falcons big outsiders

• Pooran remains win-rate value

• Waiting for Justin Greaves

• Read the CPL team guide HERE

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v  St Lucia Kings
Wednesday 20 August, 00.00
TV: Live on TNT

St Kitts & Nevis Patriots v St Lucia Kings CPL Tips

Patriots have suffered two defeats in three and the prospect of facing last year's champions may not cheer their mood. With consecutive sixth-placed finishes they are in a danger of the mark of the devil: 6-6-6.

What will concern them is having combined three strong bowling options in Jason Holder, Waqar Salmkheil and Faz Farooqi, they again looked short on nous in the field when conceding 231 against Trinbago. The ability to save 10-20 runs was crucial as they went down by 12. 

They will hope to catch a Kings side, who have yet to play after a washout against Antigua, cold. But the delay may have worked in their favour as Tim David has had time to rest up. He may have missed the first match.

Kings' set-up will be interesting. With skip David Wiese and David certain starters, the final two overseas spots will come from Delano Potgieter, Tim Seifert and Tabrazi Shamsi. Potgieter would only get a game if they decided to give the gloves to Johnson Charles.

We are a little down on Kings this term. They have lost the top tournament wicket-taker in Noor Ahmad while Faf Du Plessis was their second-highest runscorer. Neither have been adequately replaced. Matthew Forde's injury is also a blow.

Despite that, it is a surprise to see the Exchange match odds market struggling to split the pair. Kings are the outsiders at 2.021/1 and there can certainly be no justification for that on the formguide. 

We expect runs at Warner Park again. Trinbago's 231 was nearly chased by Patriots. This is reflected in the odds, however. Both teams to score 180 is no better than 5/42.25. We expect the par line to late 180s minimum on the Exchange. About 25% of first-innings have gone over 180 so it's not huge value.

Fingers crossed that Johnson Charles gets the majority of them for Kings. He is one of our go-to top bat follows with a win rate of 32% in the last two years. Sportsbook offer 13/53.60. 

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Trinbago Knight Riders
Thursday 21 August, 00:00
TV: Live on TNT

Antigua & Barbuda Falcons v Trinbago Knight Riders CPL Tips

Falcons face their stiffest test of the season against the CPL's storied franchise. Trinbago have started in thunderous fashion with a massive score in their openers against Patriots. Falcons are as big as 3.002/1

Perhaps the bad news for Falcons is that it wasn't even Nic Pooran who did the damage. Instead Colin Munro thrashed a century. It is only a matter of time before Pooran gets hold of an attack. 

But the Falcons will have hopes for their own master blaster. If they can find him. It might not be a bad idea to set up crowdfunding to put up posters or put his face on milk cartons: where is Justin Greaves?

Greaves was due to be their main man this season. But he has yet to feature and was not named in the XI for the washout against St Lucia. There has been no mention of an injury on the social channels or reports. 

With four wins from seven on top bat last season and an opening berth waiting for him, punters are desperate to get with him. His sensational knock for West Indies against Pakistan in the final ODI when he hit 43 from 24 will surely mean Falcons will return him to the opening role.

Sportsbook offer 15/28.50 that Greaves top scores. It's way too big and we have to get involved. If he doesn't play again then it is money back. It wouldn't be too big a concern if Falcons didn't even open with him. He should still bat in the top four. On price alone it is a bet. 

For TKR we have to keep faith with Pooran. He has a 36% win rate and is going to cop at some stage. It is true that he can be a difficult one to predict and although his form wasn't great in Major League, we have to expect him to dominate in favoured conditons. Sportsbook offer 13/53.60.

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