MLB Betting: As the pitchers drop, the runs increase

MLB / Nick Shiambouros / 25 August 2010 / Leave a Comment

Stephen Strasburg's 100mph fastball is brutal ... for both the batter and the pitcher

"At this time of year almost every starting pitcher is nursing some kind of injury. This combination of fatigue and injury is the main reason more runs are conceded in the last third of the season. As a result of this the over total runs market on select teams could prove profitable."

As injuries begin to bite teams who were previously able to restrict their opponents are giving up the runs. And you can profit from this, says Nick Shiambouros

The Major League Baseball season starts in the first week of April and ends in the first week of October with an astonishing 162 games played in the regular season.

The first players to arrive for spring training in February are the pitchers and catchers and it's the men on the mound who need a longer conditioning period to prepare due to the demanding nature of the position.

And there is no doubt that the most important component in a baseball team is the pitching roster. This is the heartbeat of a team along with the bullpen.
　
Every team in the league is forced to deal with pitching-related injuries as the season progresses. As we approach the latter stages of the season the average ERA of most teams increases.

At this time of year almost every starting pitcher is nursing some kind of injury. This combination of fatigue and injury is the main reason more runs are conceded in the last third of the season. As a result of this the over total runs market on select teams could prove profitable.

One team that is well worth looking at is the Chicago White Sox.

The White Sox have a respectable team ERA of 3.98 for the year. They are currently second in the AL Central and are in the running for a playoff spot. For most of the year the Chicago bullpen has been ranked first or second in the AL.

But White Sox set-up man Matt Thornton has just been sidelined with a forearm injury. It is unclear when he will return. Reliever J.J.Putz is out with an inured knee.

These injuries along with the poor form of Bobby Jenks and Scott Linebrink will have a dramatic effect on the bullpen. Chicago have an excellent starting rotation but they will have difficulty protecting a lead in the near future due to these injuries. I can envisage then giving up plenty of runs for the rest of the month at the very least.
　
Another team that could give up more runs than usual is Washington Nationals. Their pitching sensation Stephen Strasburg will be out of action for at least two weeks with a forearm injury. This is the second time this year he has had to drop out of the roster through injury. He has a 100mph fastball but it comes at a price. It is almost impossible to pitch at that kind of velocity all year without sustaining some kind of an injury.

The Nationals have a team ERA of 4.16 . Without the services of Strasburg that figure is certain to rise.

Later on this month Washington will have to play a four game series against the hard hitting St Louis Cardinals. It is quite conceivable they will give up a slew of runs against the likes of Albert Pujols and company.

The Nationals will not rush Strasburg back to the pitching roster. In fact I believe there is a chance he will not play again this year.
　
With the exception of Alex Rodriguez, the highest paid player in baseball is CC Sabathia , starting pitcher for the New York Yankees. He is paid an incredible $24m per year and believe me he is worth every penny. One of the biggest reasons he is so highly paid is that he has been injury-free for most of his career. Health is a very difficult commodity to put a price on.
　
Recommended wagers:
Back over total runs Chicago White Sox v Baltimore August 25, 26
Back over total runs Chicago White Sox v New York Yankees August 27, 28, 29
Back over total runs Washington v St Louis August 26, 27, 28, 29