Politics Betting: Odds on March election shorten after Times poll

General Election Betting / Maxliu / 13 December 2009 / Leave a Comment

"A March election has shortened into [2.72] from [4.0], though May is still the hot [1.43] favourite on Betfair."

Price on a March election shortens into [2.72] after poll but Tory majority is still a [1.42] chance on Betfair....

Despite a front page report in today's Sunday Times that the Labour party are gearing up for an early general election after a poll for the paper revealed a narrowing of the Conservative lead to "just" nine points, the Tories remain a [1.42] chance to win a majority at the next General Election.

But a March election has shortened into [2.72] from [4.0] on the back of the piece, though May is still the hot [1.43] favourite on Betfair.

Today's YouGov poll for the Sunday Times puts Labour on 31%, just nine points behind the Tories, who are on 40%. The Liberal Democrats have fallen two points to 16%.

But the Betfair market isn't convinced that the poll gives Labour renewed hope of success - at the moment, at least.

No overall majority is still in the picture at [4.2], but Labour is well behind in the betting at [13.5] on Betfair.

David Cameron's party are as short as [1.14] to win the most seats, suggesting that a hung parliament is the best Labour can hope for at this stage.

Betfair spokesman Tony Calvin commented: "There are conflicting polls in the Sunday papers, and the outright election betting has not been affected.

"But speculation in the Sunday Times that a March 25th poll is possible has seen that month shortened into [2.72] to host the election."

Next General Election Overall Majority - Betfair bet: [1.42] Conservatives, [4.2] No Overall Majority, [14.0] Labour, [220.00] Any Other Party

Next General Election Most Seats - Betfair bet: [1.14] Conservatives, [8.0] Labour, [270.00] Any Other Party

Next General Election Month - Betfair bet: [1.43] May, [2.72] March, [13.0] February, [18.0] June, April, [46.0] January