General Election Betting: Tory backers beware of UKIP threat

General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 01 March 2010 / 2 Comments

UKIP could take votes away from the Conservatives in key constituencies

"Even if they don't win their first Westminster seat, any additional coverage gained by Farage's campaign reinforces the threat UKIP pose to the plans of other parties."

As UKIP bid to win their first Westminster seat, Paul Krishnamurty wonders if they might attract anti-Europe voters away from the Conservatives.

In the case of small political parties that rarely rate a mention in the news, there's no such thing as bad publicity. UKIP's Nigel Farage will certainly hope that is the case, after aiming some highly personalised comments at EU President Herman Van Rumpuy and Belgians in general.

While most British voters would take the critical view of last week's Question Time audience, even if sharing Farage's anger about the Lisbon Treaty, UKIP's raison d'etre is to maximise support amongst the significant minority who oppose the consensus on EU membership.

Were any of the mainstream parties to make such remarks, or Europe the centrepiece of their campaign, it would be roundly condemned by psephologists as electoral suicide. Farage's focus is far narrower, however, than Gordon Brown or David Cameron. Rather than expecting to govern the country, winning just one seat would represent a breakthrough for UKIP. Like all the smaller parties, they need to maximise every ounce of media coverage, and in that respect Farage's outburst may work to his advantage.

So long as they can stay newsworthy, there is certainly a section of the electorate that are receptive to UKIP's core message. The party finished second in last year's European elections, maintaining their strong performance from 2004. A repetition at national level is out of the question, but any advance on their 2.2% share from 2005 could yet prove pivotal in determining the outcome of numerous marginal seats and by extension, the overall result.

Besides the Lisbon Treaty angle, UKIP has another trump card to maximise publicity in the form of the ongoing MPs expenses scandal. Farage is standing in Buckingham against the current Speaker, John Bercow, who has suffered his own troubles over expenses. More damagingly, Bercow is widely opposed by supporters of his own Conservative Party, after his election was engineered by Labour MPs. It doesn't help that his photogenic wife is a Labour candidate.

Anyone considering a bet on UKIP to win a seat at [3.3] will surely have Buckingham as their main hope. Victory isn't out of the question, given that by convention the other main parties don't stand against the Speaker, offering Farage the chance to build a tactical coalition to beat up on the political establishment's figurehead. Bercow remains hot favourite though, defending a huge majority.

Nevertheless, even if they don't win their first Westminster seat, any additional coverage gained by Farage's campaign reinforces the threat they pose to the plans of others. Former Tory donor Stuart Wheeler has jumped ship, funding Farage's campaign to the tune of six figures, and has placed a huge bet on UKIP to win the seat. The spread betting magnate has also published a book on the expenses scandal that targets several prominent Tories.

Indeed, it seems that since Cameron reneged on his 'cast-iron guarantee' of a Lisbon referendum, he is struggling like previous leaders to retain a strong Eurosceptic element within their membership. A recent poll showed an astonishing 43% of Conservative activists consider UKIP to be the party that next best reflects their views, (no other party scored more than 7%). UKIP's predecessors as the flag-bearer of Euroscepticism was James Goldsmith's Referendum Party, whose emergence before the 1997 election contributed towards a disastrous defeat. Research suggested that minor party's 2.6% share cost the Conservatives up to 30 seats.

Of course, one can't assume that all UKIP voters are ex-Tories. On the East coast, in marginals like Cleethorpes and Greater Grimsby, it is Labour who appear to be losing support to the anti-EU vote. Nevertheless, its striking how many seats amongst the likeliest 200 Tory targets have a strong enough UKIP presence to complicate matters. UKIP scored at least 2.5% in over a third of those targets in 2005, and over 4% in 17 of them.

Those percentages may sound small, but in the context of a tight marginal, a few hundred votes can make all the difference. The South West is a particularly crucial background, as this region hosts the eight Tory targets where UKIP scored over 5% in 2005, usually in seats won by the less affected Liberal Democrats. Likewise, those considering backing the Tories at short odds to beat Labour in numerous West Midlands seats should be careful not to assume the national swing will be replicated.

These UKIP voters generally fall into two categories. Either ex-Conservative voters who have taken an anti-European option since last voting Tory in 1992, before this issue tore them apart. Alternatively, there are plenty who have abandoned Labour since 1997, yet still not been tempted by the principal opposition party. Either way, with his poll lead and hopes of an overall majority receding by the day, these are voters that David Cameron urgently needs to win over.

Comments (2)

1. mhayworth | 01 March 2010

   'these are voters that David Cameron urgently needs to win over'

   Cameron is not attempting to win over these voters. In fact, he blindly continues to move even further left in an attempt to create a Blair-type centre ground. This makes him look even less genuine from just about every angle. His inability to see EU membership and mass immigration as key economic issues, will send many more Tories over to UKIP in the coming weeks. With 500+ candidates running in this election, UKIP will gain some serious ground.

2. P Hawkes | 04 March 2010

   Up until it became clear that all three UK political parties are just proxies of the unelected and unaccountable group of functionaries based in Brussel I had always voted Conservative. Since it became abundantly clear that we are in the hands of a European dictatorship, as demonstrated by their inability to accept the "no" results of the French, Dutch and Irish referendums, I have only voted UKIP at European elections. This time around at the General Election it will have to be UKIP unless David Cameron has the guts to offer us an unambiguous EU IN/OUT referendum with a proposed date. Vote for Con/Lib or Lab you get Brussels - no more unfulfilled cast iron stuff, thank you Dave!