General Election Betting / The Betfair Contrarian / 22 December 2008 / Leave a comment

The Betfair Contrarian took one look at the odds-on quote for a 2010 election and blew a big, fat raspberry. Ladies and gents of the British Isles, 2009 is vote time and here's why...

The Contrarian loves a good election with all those little constituencies going at it hammer and tongs. For a while, when Gordon Brown first got his hands on the prime ministerial reins, it looked as though a fierce and dramatic national poll was imminent. Then, you'll recall, one of the new PM's first decisions was to bottle the early election he'd led everyone to believe was inevitable.

Since that wobble, barely a day can have passed in which he doesn't bitterly regret his dithering, as the Labour party has plunged into a tailspin of unpopularity. But wait! As if by magic, an economic crisis so black and desperate has enveloped the entire planet, allowing Mr Brown to emerge with credit for "saving" the economy. While no one actually feels in any way saved, it has worked wonders for his standing in the polls.

So while the markets say the next election won't be until 2010 (June 3, 2010 is the last possible date), and Betfair has a 2010 election at 1.65, the Contrarian still fancies 2009 as the next big festival of box-ticking.

Gordon Brown will be growing in confidence, and keenly aware of how quickly fortune can turn her back.

A poll on December 17 had Labour just five points behind the Tories, after languishing well behind them for much of this year. The poll, conducted by ICM, showed the Tories losing seven points in just four weeks.

2009 fits a pattern, and is convenient.

The last two elections have been at four year intervals (1997, 2001, 2005), as have four of the last six. The elections of 2001 and 2005 were also held to coincide with local, regional or European elections, in order to keep costs down and turnout up. Elections to the European Parliament and local elections in England are due to be held on June 4, 2009.
2009 makes the PM look decisive again.

The PM would rather be seen to be in control of the date than at the mercy of the clock.

According to The Independent earlier this year: "The Prime Minister is said to want to avoid going "up to the wire" in 2010 in the way John Major was in 1997 when the last Tory Government hung on to office before suffering a crushing defeat. One Brown ally said: 'No prime minister wants to be boxed in and cling on to the bitter end.'"

In 2009, the good times will still be somewhere off in the distance.

The PM may be best served by a struggling economy, as a more trusted governing hand than the novice David Cameron. In last week's ICM poll, 35 per cent said Brown was the best leader to get finances back on track and was more "honest", while just 24 per cent liked how Mr Cameron sounded on the economic crisis. On the other hand, if Mr Brown waits and the economy miraculously recovers, voters may feel a little more confident about placing their faith in the newcomer, and Mr Brown could find himself like Churchill at the end of the second world war rejected.

...and the bad times may not yet have turned to the stuff of nightmare.

Some of the more pessimistic forecasts predict that by 2010 the UK could be suffering from massive unemployment. If the economic mood darkens to unprecedented levels, patience with the Labour party is likely to run out, so they may feel their best chance is in grim 2009 rather than catastrophic 2010.

A June 2009 election would bring a mountain of favourable press.

According to yesterday's Sunday Times, "In May Gordon Brown will be hosting the world economic summit in Britain, and with Obama in town there is bound to be wall-to-wall media coverage. David Cameron will be lucky to get a look-in."