General Election Betting: Fifty seats that will decide the election - Seats 36 - 40

General Election Betting / Paul Krishnamurty / 05 March 2010 / Leave a Comment

Cameron is wobbling but if he secured these seats then the election will surely be his

"In mathematical terms, the Conservatives face a tough task overhauling the Lib Dems in the Winchester seat lost in the 1997 landslide. Their cause here has been considerably aided by outgoing MP Mark Oaten's sex scandal though, and Winchester's affluent Home Counties profile looks fertile territory for Cameron's 'liberal conservatism'."

Poll show the Tory lead is shrinking - but if they pick up these seats then it'll be a very good night indeed for Cameron and co

Telford
Conservative Target No. 141 (7.4% swing required)

Before the recent shrinking of David Cameron's double-digit poll lead, the Conservatives had good reason to be confident of winning seats like Telford. Even if they didn't quite manage to achieve this 7.4% swing nationally, they were expected to perform above that level in the key marginals. However, last night's Channel 4/Yougov poll showed the Tory lead across such marginals at just 2%, down five points over the last year.
Labour are just about back in the game.

Verdict: On a knife-edge, like the wider result.

Winchester
Conservative Target No. 142 (7.45% swing required)

In mathematical terms, the Conservatives face a tough task overhauling the Lib Dems in this seat lost in the 1997 landslide. Their cause here has been considerably aided by outgoing MP Mark Oaten's sex scandal though, and Winchester's affluent Home Counties profile looks fertile territory for Cameron's 'liberal conservatism'.

Verdict: A more plausible gain from the Lib Dems than many others higher up the target list.

Batley and Spen
Conservative Target No. 143 (7.45% swing required)

Here's the flip-side to Tory targets like Winchester; a West Yorkshire seat where Cameron must sell his liberal brand to working-class voters. This looks a tough task given that the Tory share dropped by 5% in 2005, apparently to the benefit of the BNP. Like many other seats where a big swing is required, the presence of smaller parties complicates Tory ambitions.

Verdict: Labour return to slight favouritism after the recent comeback

Newport West
Conservative Target No. 145 (7.65% swing required)

If Labour lose this seat for the first time since their 1983 disaster under Michael Foot, their night will probably have been even worse than that mid-80s nadir. Tory prospects in Wales have definitely improved, but they remain vulnerable here to any sort of Labour comeback. Paul Flynn has been MP since 1987 and should enjoy a decent incumbency factor, especially as he's been a frequent critic of the government.

Verdict: Labour hold

Harrogate & Knavesborough
Conservative Target No. 153 (8.05% swing required)

Whereas incumbency should help Lib Dems perform better than the national swing in several other contests against the Tories, the reverse could be true here. Popular longstanding MP Phil Willis is standing down, significantly raising the prospect of this Yorkshire seat returning to its pre-1997 home. Again, the English middle-class profile of this area makes it natural Tory territory in a good year.

Verdict: This could be the most impressive of a dozen or so Tory gains from the Lib Dems.