General Election Bet of the Day: Tories to win Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland

Election Bet of the Day / Paul Krishnamurty / 02 May 2010 / 2 Comments

This man could be heading for a very depressing few days

"Labour's problem here is a gradual fragmentation of its core white-working class vote. Some will peel away to the advancing Lib Dems, others to UKIP and the BNP."

Labour's core vote is disintegrating, says Paul Krishnamurty, and previously impregnable seats are not winnable for their opponents

This morning's poll points towards a decisive shift in the outcome of this election, with the Conservatives opening up an average lead between six and seven percentage points. With Labour struggling to avoid third place, seats like Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland look extremely vulnerable.

Rather like yesterday's featured constituency, Morley and Outwood, Labour's problem here is a gradual fragmentation of its core white-working class vote. Some will peel away to the advancing Lib Dems, others to UKIP and the BNP. As with Ed Balls' seat, Tory chances may be under-estimated by odds around [2.5].

Before the Tories even convert one ex-Labour voter to their cause, just a repeat of their 2005 performance could make them competitive. Indeed, across the land, they are going to be hard to beat in any Labour-held seat where they scored 30% last time. In this seat, they scored 32%, less than a percentage point below their national average, and that on a bad night across the region.

Comments (2)

1. Gaswork | 02 May 2010

   Ukip haven’t been allowed to get a word in edgeways, on the state of the economy from the bios BBC and other newspapers that always find new ways of pulling them down with many posts on comment sites deliberately refused towards them, perhaps you should run a front page interview with Nigel Farage and ask him to explain why there will be no more treaties the sixth completes the EU and under article 2-2 and 2.3 our former borders mean nothing, under article 2-4 gives the EU the power to force Britain into the Euro come clean please we are sick to death of being lied too and treated like children.
   MORE than 50 million African workers are to be invited to Europe in a far-reaching secretive migration deal. And how many already speak English so you know where most will end up, it’s the destruction of a beautiful country and the death of a 1000 years of democracy if we stay in the EU and none of the main three are telling you the truth.

2. John Beatson | 02 May 2010

   Middlesbrough just like my home city of Sheffield is a industrial city which has seen all our manufacturing industries destroyed by this Labour Party

   As an ex-steelworker I have witness the destruction of Sheffield tool cutlery and steel making, companies and firms which has created work for thousands of people over hundreds of years shut down for no reason whatsoever

   Not only has this parliament destroyed jobs but allowed thousands of foreigners to flood the employment market place thus demolishing all prospects for our future generations

   Only the BNP oppose this traitorous parliament and will bring back our industries but will also put the British people back to work, this is not racist just common sense