General Election Bet of the Day: Back turnout to be above 65%

Election Bet of the Day / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Paul Krishnamurty expects a higher turnout than in the last two elections

"I expect a significantly higher turnout. Whatever your political leanings, there is ample motivation to cast your vote."

Voters knew who was going to win the last two General Elections - this time it's anyone's guess and for that reason Paul Krishnamurty believes we will see a bigger turnout...

Ever since New Labour swept to power in 1997 amidst a tide of optimism, its become the norm to lament the depressingly low turnout at just about every type of election. 71.4% turned out in 1997, but the figure dropped markedly to 59.4% in 2001, and 61.4% in 2005.

It's stating the obvious that this trend reflects growing apathy and distrust of politicians, but there has been another major factor in play. In Blair's second and third elections, hardly anybody thought the result was in doubt. Why bother taking the trouble to vote for politicians you don't hold in particularly high regard, when you don't think it will make the slightest difference in your constituency or to the country? The overwhelming majority of voters live in seats that were widely considered safe for the incumbent.

The dynamics this time are completely different, and I expect to that to result in a significantly higher turnout. Whatever your political leanings, there is ample motivation to cast your vote. Conservatives are desperate to regain power. The remaining core Labour voters, amongst whom turnout has become particularly poor, are desperate to keep the hated Tories out. Lib Dems have never been more enthusiastic about their prospects, and their anti-establishment message could also attract a few former abstainers.

Moreover, the leaders' debates have introduced a new dynamic that connects the armchair political viewer. With polls showing the three parties separated by as little as five percentage points, everything is suddenly up for grabs. The message to the electorate is clear - your vote counts more than ever. By laying the two bands below 65%, we're effectively taking odds of around [2.0] on anything higher.

Recommended bets:

Voter Turnout

Lay 60% or fewer @ [5.4]
Lay 60.01 - 65% @ [3.3]