General Election Bet of the Day: 'Any Other Party' to win Castle Point

Election Bet of the Day / Paul Krishnamurty / 21 April 2010 / Leave a Comment

Spread betting millionaire Stuart Wheeler is backing Bob Spink for victory in Castle Point

"A right-wing Eurosceptic often at odds with the leadership, Spink was reprimanded after producing controversial anti-immigration literature, before finally leaving the party in 2008. Since then, he's sat as an independent and campaigned hard for local issues. "

There are only a few seats where one of the three main parties can win - but this Essex outpost is one of them and Bob Spink is a live runner, says Paul Krishnamurty

With public perception of the political establishment at an all-time low, many believe we could see a handful of independent candidates winning seats at this election. In truth, there aren't very many realistic chances, but Castle Point could be worth a crack at around [4.2].

This Essex contest pits the popularity of the local MP versus the power of the party machine. Bob Spink has been elected three terms as a Conservative in Castle Point, regaining the seat from Labour in 2001 and massively increasing his majority in 2005.

A right-wing Eurosceptic often at odds with the leadership, Spink was reprimanded after producing controversial anti-immigration literature, before finally leaving the party in 2008. Since then, he's sat as an independent and campaigned hard for local issues.

It won't be easy without the benefit of a party label, but there is good reason to think he could hang on. Spink's brand of Conservatism is probably more in tune with this electorate than Cameron's more moderate emphasis, and must have a good chance of retaining a decent chunk of the 48% that supported him in 2005. In addition, Spink's detachment from the Tory label might attract some of the 30% that voted Labour last time to his cause.

Another positive is that Spink's campaign has some wealthy backers, usually associated with Eurosceptic causes. It has been reported that the spread betting magnate Stuart Wheeler has already placed a large wager on Spink.