Bluffing the turn vs bluffing the river

Poker Strategy / Marcus Bateman / 10 June 2010 / Leave a Comment

Most river bets will be called in Limit Hold'em, simply because the price is so good by the end of the hand that folding much is a big mistake.

Many players used to No Limit Hold'em habitually bluff far too much on the river when playing Limit Hold'em. As you can construct your bet sizes in no limit games, you can create prices that will force players off even quite strong hands by laying them a poor price for the hand at any stage.

However, in Limit Hold'em this is simply not the case, and most successful bluffs centre much more around the turn than they do the river.

Say you raise a hand like pocket sevens from the button and both blinds come along. The pot stands at six big blinds on the flop (your raise to two big blinds plus two calls), and the flop comes out a 6h 8s Qc board. The blinds check, and you elect to check behind after the big blind thought long and hard about what to do - an action that you suspect gives him a hand like an eight with a good kicker or a weak queen - neither of which are folding on this board.

The turn comes the Ad. Both blinds quickly check. In this situation you are in a great spot to try and make a play at a pot where you are pretty sure you are behind. Not only has a scare card come, but the betting limits have doubled, allowing you to fire out a third of the pot size bet. This gives your opponent four to one on the call (two big blinds to win eight) - not an amazing price considering the board, your likely hand range, and the chances of having to call another bet on the river (which really makes the price two to five if we assume you will fire the river again).

Compare this scenario to if you fire the flop in the same situation and the big blind calls. The pot is now eight big blinds (the pre flop six, plus two more from the flop), and the turn comes a deuce instead of an ace. You fire again, although now giving your opponent five to one, and with second pair they call again. The pot is now twelve big blinds (the previous eight plus four from the turn action), and the river comes another deuce. If you bet again on the river, your opponent will be getting seven to one on the call - a huge price with middle pair, and one that is very unlikely to push them off of the hand.

Most river bets will be called in Limit Hold'em, simply because the price is so good by the end of the hand that folding much is a big mistake. Thinking about this is crucial to adjusting your bluffing spots if you are used to No Limit Hold'em, and habitually trying to fire the river with air is a huge leak in a game so dependent on winning - or failing to lose - the odd extra big bet than your opponent.