Variance can GTFO

Internet Poker / Matthew Pitt / 26 April 2010 / 1 Comments

I am being battered by Lady Luck at the minute. In fact she has me squarely by the balls and is squeezing them tightly.

Jesus Christ! This game can be so frustrating at times it makes me want to throw my laptop against a wall and kick the cat! For the last 5,000 hands, I have been fighting a losing battle with variance and basically breaking even, whilst being owed a ton of EV from all-in situations.

As I mentioned in my previous post, my confidence has been sky-high, and to be honest it still is although I have doubted myself a couple of times over the weekend. I've now played close to 9k hands this month, a record for me, but I am being battered by Lady Luck at the minute. In fact she has me squarely by the balls and is squeezing them tightly.

Right after posting Friday's entry I logged on and fired up four tables of the massive stakes that are $0.05/$0.10 and within 20 hands I had been stacked! The action folded to me on the button and I made my standard raise of 4BB holding A8o. The small blind, a rather tight player called and we both saw a rainbow flop of TKA. The SB checked, I bet ¾ pot and he check-raised me about three times my bet, which I called.

The turn was another ace and this time the SB donked into me, $3.50 into the $5.10 pot to be exact and instead of moving all-in for my remaining $7.65 I clicked call. Big mistake. The river brought a four and villain bet enough to put me all-in and getting 4-to-1 I called, only to be shown a rivered set of fours. FML. Shoving the turn is obviously the correct play but I think he'd have called anyway judging by how he played the earlier streets.

Instead of going on tilt, I put the hand down to experience and carried on as if it had not happened. By the time I called it a day I had played 322 hands and was in profit to the tune of 110 big blinds which is not to be sniffed at. The following day I played another 400 hands, finishing up a massive 13BB though I did lose a large pot whilst holding 70.1% equity. Some will say my shove was fishy but I just knew I was in front and went with my read, which you have to do from time to time. At least I was correct which is all that matters in the grand scheme of things.

I rarely play during the day on a weekend due to family commitments but on Sunday I found the time for another 200 or so hands, which resulted in a net loss of almost 2.5 stacks. Almost half of that loss occurred whilst I was trying to represent a very strong hand when my opponent had flopped a full house! GG me!

I am still in profit to the tune of 940 big blinds from 8,681 hands with an adjusted all-in EV of 1,250 big blinds so I suppose I shouldn't moan. The plan of action is to attempt to get to the 12,000 hand mark by the end of the month which means I need to play around 650 hands each day. If only I didn't have work to do I'd get grinding right now!

As always, thanks for reading and best of luck at those fish filled tables!

Comments (1)

1. burnleymik | 29 April 2010

   About the hand you posted mate...

   A tight player calls you out of position and then checks raises you on the flop, looks like a great time to chuck away your Ace rag. The only hand you beat that he has there is a bluff IMO. I really don;t like the flat call of the CR.

   goood luck with it all