Paul Nicholls: Squiggle or no squiggle Tidal Bay will make them go in the Lexus
"At least, I see they (Timeform) have him top-rated for the Lexus. And I really can see Tidal Bay giving Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs and Hidden Cyclone plenty to think about at Leopardstown."
Betfair Ambassador Paul Nicholls gives his thoughts on Tidal Bay's chances in today's Lexus Chase, but he still wonders why his veteran chaser still has a Timeform squiggle!
15:00 Leopardstown, Lexus Chase
I am struggling to get my head around Timeform still having a squiggle by Tidal Bay's rating.
Yes, I appreciate that he has been an unreliable character in the past on occasions, even though his CV before he came to us certainly wasn't too shoddy. It boasted a novice hurdle second at the Festival, a 13 length Arkle win, a Tingle Creek second to Master Minded, a Cleeve Hurdle and a Betfair Chase second to Imperial Commander at Haydock.
In many respects, the reputation he has reminds me of the way our 2009 Lexus winner What A Friend is viewed in certain corners.
Of course, both horses have their own obvious quirks and style of running, and they always will have.
But I have not been overly-disappointed by Tidal Bay in any of his seven starts for me - his poorest effort for me was his last of five in the Betfair Denman Chase at Newbury, but he lost any chance with a bad blunder there, and he was also hampered when below par behind Big Buck's at Aintree too - and I have been thrilled by his last three runs.
I love training these older horses, finding what makes them tick and then trying to improve them and keep them on their game.
And I think you probably have to say that he has improved too, following on from a 15 length win in the bet365 with a Grade 2 hurdle win on his reappearance, and then failing by just over three lengths to give current Gold Cup favourite Bob's Worth 6lb in the Hennessy, with 5 lengths back to Sun Alliance runner-up First Lieutenant.
I have said it before. If he were three or four years younger, then he would be up there near the head of the Gold Cup market, not at a 26.025/1+ chance.
I just wonder whether Timeform think jumps horses are 'fairer game' than Flat horses!
I am sure that there are examples but I wonder if they can tell me the last Flat horse with Tidal Bay's top-class credentials to have the squiggle - and maintain it in the face of a string of performances that culminated in a career-best last time. And that is according to their own figures.
At least, I see they have him top-rated for the Lexus. And I really can see Tidal Bay giving Flemenstar, Sir Des Champs and Hidden Cyclone plenty to think about at Leopardstown.
There are reasons why Tidal Bay appears back to his best, and more, as an 11yo.
We have mixed up and changed his routine, so that he doesn't work up the hill for example, sorted out his breathing and addressed some bleeding issues - we basically gave him a full MOT - and I am really looking forward to seeing what he can do back in Grade 1 company over fences.
It could be that Ireland's up-and-comers prove too quick for him here providing they stay - and Flemenstar has looked very impressive over 2m4f - but I just think this race could be set up for a closer like Tidal Bay. And the more it rains, the better for him.
And if Timeform do tip the winner of the Lexus, I just wonder what those stubborn souls will do!!
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Comments (10)
James J | 28 December 2012
Come on Tidal show them what you can do big fella.
Stewart Ferguson | 28 December 2012
I hope Tidal Bay flies passed the up-and-comers on the run in in the Lexus Chase and wins going away.
Then I hope Timeform removes the squiggle
Good luck Tidal Bay
John Witts | 28 December 2012
As punters we have to come at Tidal Bay from that angle and his overall history means he will always be one to be wary of. He has a serious form chance today (as he has in the past and not produced the goods).
But if a master trainer like Paul says he is back to his best and hios problems sorted then I am willing to take a chance at about 5/1 - particularly as Irish three mile chaseres are more often than not over hyped.
PS I wonder with hindsight on the heavy ground would the King George have been the better target?
Steve Freer | 28 December 2012
Think Tidal Bay will win ,Flemenstar will make the running but stamina will give out and Sir Des Champs is not the most fluent jumper in my opinion it's a mouthwatering race and I can't wait until 3.00pm to hail the great warrior that Tidal Bay is.
Anthony | 28 December 2012
Timeform will have to swallow their pride now.
Martin | 28 December 2012
Congratulations Paul, what a race!
STEVE | 28 December 2012
A brilliant training performance by PN.It makes you think if he had Tidal Bay from the beginning how many G1 races would he have won.He sussed out the horses problems as soon as he got him ,something Howard Johnstone couldn't do in 3 years.I give a bit of stick on here if I think it is justified but I give respect to a brilliant sporting achievement.It also has to be said that Ruby gave it the ride of the season so far.I didn't have a bet in the race but I was on my feet screaming him home.Well done team Ditcheat.
brian | 28 December 2012
what a pleasure to see the old boy do that.brill training and what a ride.thats up there with the best results paul has sent out ...
John Witts | 29 December 2012
Win or narrow defeat the important thing was Tidal Bay could have thrown in the towel and he did not. The squiggle is now a thing of the past.
ANTHONY SPALL | 29 December 2012
Seems Mr Nicholls many conversations with Sir Alex are rubbing off. Man U's never say die approach can most definitely be compared with Tidal Bay's amazing victory yesterday - a truly epic finish