Jockeys & Trainers / Wayne Bailey / 18 November 2008 / 3 Comments

The Yorkshireman has been quietly firing home the winners for years now and Wayne Bailey thought it was high time he paid tribute to a man who, though best known as a flat trainer, has a lot to offer punters in the national hunt arena.

Every now and then a great racing story comes along.

The career of Collier Hill is one such tale. Bought for just five-and-a-half grand, the gelding went on to amass £2.5m in prizemoney with 15 career wins, and runner up on ten occasions. The horse put trainer Alan Swinbank firmly on the map for punters who had until then overlooked the Yorkshireman's excellent string of horses.

But Alan has been quietly firing home the winners for some time now, and the man who doubles up as a bloodstock agent is responsible for most of the shrewder Thorndale Stables inmates. He is primarily recognised as a flat trainer, but it's his national hunt horses which interest me from a betting perspective.

In the last NH season in the UK, he had 21 winners from 81 races (26%) and broke even to level stakes, while showing a small profit to Betfair SP if blindly backed. This season has already gotten off to a flyer, with ten wins from 44 races thus far, and a decent profit to boot. With the National Hunt season now in full swing, I've taken a look at his record in the hope of finding some profitable angles. All data is from 2003 onwards and is for National Hunt racing only.

Latest form

You can rely on Swinbank to follow up on a good performance. Backing his horses that were first or second last-time-out produced 53 winners from 146 bets, and showed a profit of over £300 to £10 stakes. The strike rate has been consistent year-on-year and early indications are that this season will be no different.

Jockeys

Irishman Tony Dobbin performed well when teaming up with Swinbank until the jockey retired this year, but one of the most notable NH jockeys in recent times has been Thomas Greenall, who has had twelve winners from 27 bets for Swinbank. Granted that the sample is small, but had you put £10 on each horse, you'd show a profit of over £70 today.

Courses

Swinbank horses are always worth noting at Market Rasen, Sedgefield and Wetherby where he has a collective win rate of one in four. However, profit levels have been up and down, so proceed with caution if considering this angle.

Race Type

Swinbank is most successful in bumpers (24%), but it's difficult to make a profit as prices are usually quite short. Next up, it's Chases (20%) where a small profit is shown if blindly backed. Finally, his hurdlers show a 17% strike rate and significant losses to level stakes.

Fancied Horses

If the money has come in for a Swinbank horse, you can be extra confident if placing a bet. His horses that go off as favourite in NH non-handicaps show a cracking strike-rate of 49.5% (54 wins from 109 bets) however as expected, the profit levels are low as prices are usually very short.

Note that I'm not suggesting that you use the above as some sort of system, rather let them be pointers amongst other variables that may help you decide whether to place a bet or not. That said, if his horses continue to perform this season, there should be more than a few decent betting opportunities arising from the above advice.

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