Leopardstown Preview: Wednesday July 16

005 Irish Racing / Editor / 16 July 2008 / Leave a Comment

Wayne Bailey highlights Wednesday's best betting opportunities.

6:30 - Silver Flash Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies)

The rise and rise of trainer David Wachman has been fascinating to follow over the past few years, and he's really excelled at the craft of finding the right races to enter his horses in. I call it a craft because it seems to be a difficult thing to do if you look at some of the fields in recent years. I'm not having a pop at the other trainers, God knows they've enough to put up with - but there seems to be a hell of a lot of horses running recently that can only be classed as no-hopers who grimly make up the numbers. One often wonders whether it's a case of keeping the owners happy with a run now and then - the owners of course, being the ones who pay the bills.

This race thankfully, looks like a competitive affair and I reckon that Wachman has once again found the right race for his horse. Chintz, was hampered last time out at the Curragh but can still hold her head up high and bounce back from that defeat. She broke her maiden tag here in June and will appreciate the return to seven furlongs. Wachman has also found the right jockey to ride her - man of the moment Johnny Murtagh - and I'm fairly confident of a win. Jim Bolger's Aaroness could be a tough customer, and it's hard to tell if she will continue to improve now that she's stepped up to Group level. I don't think she'll be much of a price in the place market, so she's probably best left alone for betting purposes. Luminous Eyes is another improver, and may be a horse to add to the notebook as one to watch.

Recommendation:

• Back Chintz to win

8:00 - Stillorgan Handicap (Premier Handicap)

Good old flat handicaps, don't you just love them?

I risk opening an old can of worms here, but for me - handicaps are all about getting good value. There have been plenty of arguments in the racing media recently as to what the concept of 'value' actually means - and there are those who rightly point out that whether you got a good price or not can only be determined after the race has been run. I'm not too philosophical about it to be honest. I usually decide what price I believe my fancy should be before I place my bet - and if the odds are above that price, I feel I'm getting good value. Simple as that, no thesis needed.

Despite being the likely market leader, I believe that any price above [5.0] represents value for Central Station, and I will certainly be involved at that price or above. He was out of his depth in a listed race at Ascot last month, and this is a more realistic level for the time being. Pat Smullen knows his way around here too, and I'd be surprised if he's not placed at the very least. Toirneach may find himself friendless after a dismal display at the Curragh recently, but I've watched that race again, and she looked uncomfortable. I know she's much better than that, and I'm going to give her one more chance in the place market at what should be a nice price.

Recommendations:

• Back Central Station to win and place
• Back Toirneach to place

9:00 - Challenge Stakes (Listed Race)

It's very interesting to see that Johnston has sent Peppertree Lane across the water for this, and he certainly must rate his chances. He comes with a good CV having with a Group Three win under the belt from last year, and came back to form when winning a Listed race last month at Goodwood. That said, I think he'll struggle to come to terms with Profound Beauty, the Dermot Weld filly that seems to improve with every run. She's certainly capable at this level and is definitely the one to beat.

It's rare that I mention the words 'lay' and 'Aidan O' Brien' in the same sentence, but his filly Hold Me Love Me is very inconsistent, and only managed to win a maiden recently after numerous poor attempts. She's out of her league here and should be found out in the business end of the race.

Recommendations:

• Back Profound Beauty to win
• Lay Hold Me Love Me in the place market