General / Graham Cunningham / 13 June 2008 / 1 Comments

Racing UK's top pundit also assesses the action from York and the wonder of the 'keep bet' option on Betfair

Ascot beckons.....but only the Queen's presence is essential

They tried to make me go to Ascot. I said no, no, no.

And, barring a drastic late change of plan, my view of Britain's greatest Flat meeting will be from the comfort of a peaceful office where there is absolutely no need to get dressed up like a penguin in order to sit in standing traffic for an eternity.

Hats off to the Ascot press office - who kindly sent me the assorted badges and car park labels necessary for media to get into the Royal meeting nowadays without me applying - but the work (and the punting) I have in mind this year can be done quite nicely from home.

And, though the social side of next week's bunfight is paramount for many, it can come at a very high cost if it means you bet in a different way than you ought to.

Thankfully, the one thing that never changes about Ascot is the strength of racing on offer. Much work has to be done before my final betting plans take shape, but the highlights of the week pick themselves.

Dual Guineas winner Henrythenavigator will be banker material for most backers in Tuesday's St James's Palace Stakes, but it would be dangerous to assume he is past the post given the way Falco swaggered his way through the French Guineas.

Duke Of Marmalade and the unfeasibly well handicapped Bankable will be the flagship names in the Prince of Wales's Stakes and the Royal Hunt Cup on day two, while Thursday sees the ageless Yeats trying to fend off the ever-improving French raider Coastal Path in what promises to be a spellbinding Gold Cup.

Add in Friday's battle of the fillies in the Coronation Stakes and a humdinger of a Golden Jubilee on Saturday and you have a menu which is hard to fault. All we have to do no is sort out a winner or two.


Aureate worth another chance to swell the beer kitty on York's big day

Some say York is the Ascot of the north. And others say the royal meeting is only the second most important social occasion of the British summer.

You would be hard pressed to persuade the massed ranks of Yorkies, Geordies, Mancs and Scousers who pack the Knavesmire this Saturday that the historic Timeform Charity day plays second fiddle to any racing occasion.

I will be swaying gently among them on a stag weekend with a gang I have known since childhood and, believe me, there is no pressure like having 20 of your oldest mates hand you a large beer kitty with the order to make it an even larger one.

Persuading non Betfair punters who have taken a drink or two to cheer for a horse to lose rather than to win could prove interesting but, even so, it's possible that a fair chunk of said kitty will be marshalled for a place lay of Dohasa and Carleton in the £100,000 Betfair Sprint at 3.25.

Irish raider Dohasa faces a tough shift off a mark of 104 and will need a clear lifetime best to grab a slice of the prize money, while Carleton bustled up the highly progressive Ancien Regime at Newmarket last time but will do well to repeat that form if he gets behind in the early stages again on this fast track.

The Cumani family have dominated the Queen Mother's Cup (2.15) in recent years and I am in no rush to lay the progressive Newmarket winner Ask The Butler as he bids to take the prize to Bedford House for the fourth year running.

By contrast, I might be interested in taking on Secret Dancer if he figures among the market leaders. James Fanshawe's gelding caught the eye sweeping from last to first on his Newbury debut, but he will need to be very useful to defy a mark of 93 on only his second start and his rider Rose Davidson has a modest record on the Flat compared to her jumping strike rate.

Regular readers will recall that Aureate was nominated as a value win and place option in a big handicap on Epsom's Derby day card last week. He did us proud by going down narrowly in a desperate finish and, with the feisty Lorraine Ellison to do the pushing, he looks a fair bet to reach a place at the very least once again.


In praise of keep bets and the quest for the BTN (Bet To Nothing)

What do you reckon is the greatest addition that Betfair have added to the site since it took its first hesitant steps into the betting jungle eight years ago this month?

Many people would argue that the ability to bet in-running has been the key factor in helping them get ahead of the pack.

Others would say that the ever increasing number of markets on worldwide sports have made the biggest difference, while recent additions like the Betfair SP and the ability to bet into Tote pools have also been important.

But, for my money, the single most valuable development Betfair have made in recent years is the keep bets device.

In case this facility has passed you by, it consists of a programme whereby backers and layers can name their price well in advance of a race and keep the bet live in-running by simply clicking "keep" as you confirm the request.

Put simply, this is a tremendous idea for punters who are a little more risk averse than some of the more buccaneering Betfair brigade.

For example, if you back a horse at [10.0] during the morning you now have the chance to leave a lay to save the stake at much shorter odds without having to scramble to keep pace with the fast picture mob once the race is under way.

Naturally, if the horse wins a percentage of the profit is lost, but experience suggests that is a small price to pay for the knowledge that using keep bets can vastly reduce the lengthy losing runs which damage even the most disciplined punter's confidence.

Take last week's Derby, for example. Having lumped on Doctor Fremantle at [16.0] and [15.0] on Betfair I settled down to watch the race having logged small in-play lays at [6.0], [5.0], [4.0], [3.0], [2.0] and [1.5].

Only the first couple were snapped up - along with a chunky place lay at [2.0] - but for those who like to back front runners or habitual strong travellers the keep bets option is now a crucial weapon.

And, if nothing else, watching a big race is much less stressful once you know you are effectively on a bet to nothing.

Comments (1)

1. Jack Houghton | 13 June 2008

   Cunningham, you're a disgrace. In my offering this week I call you a weasel. But getting free tickets and then not going? That makes you a double weasel.

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