General / Wayne Bailey / 13 October 2009 / Leave a comment

Wayne Bailey takes a look ahead to two of the weekend's big races from British HQ...

“It’s hard to get away from the favourite Fame And Glory, and I’m happy to be a backer at [2.7]. Had Sea The Stars not been around this season, it’s possible that this Montjeu colt would have been the story of the summer.”

Jumeirah Dewhurst Stakes (Group 1)
At [26.0] on Betfair, last year's winner Intense Focus was not the most popular selection in the history of the race - but the colt did make it Jim Bolger's third win in a row, so it's not a huge shock to see Chabal head the early markets around [3.2]. It's also just been announced that Godolphin have bought Chabal and the Dewhurst will be his last race with Bolger listed as the trainer.
Generally speaking, this race has been won by some top class two-year-olds and New Approach, Teofilo, Sir Percy and Rock Of Gibraltar are all included in the list of recent victors. Chabal has claims based on his latest form when coming second in the Vincent O'Brien National Stakes at the Curragh, and it's fair to say that Godolphin have made some sound investments in Bolger's animals before - but I reckon punters are letting the sale drive the odds too low; and I'm going to lay the Galileo colt at these prices.
Aidan O'Brien has only won this race once from 26 runners but his place record is reasonable. He has a number of entries at this early stage with Steinbeck most notable in the betting around [6.0]. However, this will be a lot trickier than his sole outing at Naas, and that price offers little value.
The stand-out bet for me is Brian Meehan's Arcano who looks far too high around [5.0]. He has an excellent turn of foot and has been clocking some impressive times in his three unbeaten races to date. He looks like an exciting young horse and his current price is great value amid the fuss about the favourite.

Recommendation: Back Arcano to win at [5.0]. Lay Chabal at [3.2].

Emirates Airline Champion Stakes (Group 1)
Sariska won the Irish Oaks with amazing ease but was later turned over in the Yorkshire Oaks at [1.40] - so it's not hard to see why she is relatively cold in the market at [6.0]. The fillies enjoyed plenty of success in this contest in the late 90s winning three in-a-row at one stage; but female winners have been thin on the ground of late. Punters should note however, that they get a 3lb allowance so be sure to factor that into your betting.
Considering the record of French trained horses in the race (eight wins in the last 25 renewals), Never On Sunday could be worth a punt in the place market on the day, depending on prices. His ante-post win price is currently floating around [8.0] so it will be interesting to see what odds are on offer by the weekend. He hasn't won a race since May but is a better horse than his latest form suggests and may just nab a place.
But it's hard to get away from the favourite Fame And Glory, and I'm happy to be a backer at [2.7]. Had Sea The Stars not been around this season, it's possible that this Montjeu colt would have been the story of the summer- and although he was below his best in the Arc, he should have a number of pounds in hand and will prove hard to beat.

Recommendation: Back Fame And Glory to win at [2.7]. Back Never On Sunday in the place market at [2.2] or above.

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Tags: Arcano, Chabal, Champion Stakes, Dewhurst, Fame And Glory, Never On Sunday, Newmarket, Wayne Bailey