Novice Chase Betting: Legend eyes Cheltenham glory

General / Steven Rawlings / 12 December 2008 / Leave a Comment

Steve Rawlings brings you the best bets from the weekend's novice chases at Cheltenham, Doncaster and Lingfield.

The 1.55 at Cheltenham tomorrow, won last year by Tidal Bay and by Exotic Dancer in 2005, doesn't look like a particularly strong renewal.

Nigel Twiston-Davies switches Buck The Legend to novice company after a very cosy win in a Newbury handicap off 124. He's been put 18 lbs for that win and the switch looks a sensible move which could well result in another victory.

The biggest danger could be Ferdy Murphy's Naiad Du Misselot, winner of last seasons Coral Cup. He's already had a couple of races over fences, needing the run at Haydock and then over a trip too short at Kelso. Everything seems to be in his favour here and he's a serious contender.

Hold Em ran another admirable race last time at Newbury and will be an excellent barometer to assess the race but he still doesn't get his preferred good ground here and I have a suspicion we've seen all he's got anyway.

Slash and Burn has a chase rating of 137 which would suggest he'd be a big player here but I fancy that's a bit steep given what he's done so far and with just one win in 17 starts I'm happy to dismiss him.

Katess was quite disappointing last time after a pleasing debut chase win. Her trainer, Alan King, switched her to chasing because her handicap mark over hurdles was too high. Given that she was several pounds below her rivals here over hurdles she's also dismissed.

The 12.30 at Doncaster ought to be a good opportunity for Alan King's Greenbridge. He was a progressive type over hurdles, made a pleasing debut over fences and has won here before. Howver, I thought his run last time at Exeter was very disappointing and he didn't come to hand until February last season so I'd advise caution.

French Saulaie, also highly rated over hurdles, is talented but inconsistent and has been particularly disappointing over fences.

Howard Johnson's Mephisto was the best of these over hurdles but has badly lost his way and I cant help thinking switching to fences is a last resort plan.

Lease Lend and Otage De Brion have decent, if not spectacular, form over fences, while the dark horse could be Master Builder and any money for Ferdy Murphy's charge would be interesting but in a trappy event I may well take a chance on Pop.

There was money for Pop on his chase debut at Ludlow and he'd jumped well and was travelling sweetly alongside RSA hopeful Shinning Gale when he took a tumble four out. He wasn't as good as quite a few of these over hurdles but if he's none the worse for his fall he could be worth a few bob.

The December Novices' Chase at Lingfield is a race that Francois Doumon's L'Ami won in 2004 and he brings over Millenium Royal this year. It looks to be between him and Lodge Lane with marginal preference for the latter. He was impressive at Exeter when beating Wichita Lineman and is highly regarded by Victor Dartnell.

Gary Moore won this race with Verasi last year but his Or Jaune looks to have a little too much on his plate here, though his chase debut at Huntingdon was a decent effort and the winner Tartak gave Gone To Lunch a scare at Newbury next time out.

Niche Market has now had nine attempts over fences without winning and was 4th in this race last year and Fire and Rain looks outclassed.

Since I last posted I've had a poor run. I've backed a few that looked penalty kicks but unfortunately for me Chris Waddle took them! My two picks last Saturday both got beat, Nakai unseating poor ole Sam Thomas and Free World getting nabbed on the line, having traded at [1.03] in running.

All was brighter yesterday though when I backed Shatabdi, who boosted the credentials of my sole ante-post bet, Kalahari King in the Arkle when she won at Huntingdon.

I also took on Big Fella Thanks at Taunton who had looked disappointing last time and the application of blinkers was a worry. He got turned over at [1.25] after being most reluctant and all Sam Thomas' urgings just failed to get him home.
I had been impressed with What A Friend when he won at Uttoxeter and he's just won nicely at Cheltenham, lowering the colours of the highly regarded Ballyfitz. He's yet another to enter the RSA picture and it's a market I'm still happy to avoid at this stage.