GC's Scottish Grand National Tips: 'If you can't beat them...'

General / Graham Cunningham / 17 April 2009 / Leave a Comment

Racing UK and betmaverick.com analyst Graham Cunningham runs the rule over the Ayr showpiece and homes in on a pet subject for Scotland's biggest jumps race.

Think of the word National and what is the next word that springs to mind?

Lottery, debt or disaster would all fit nicely and appropriately when it comes to how most punters reacted to the recent Grand Nationals in England and Ireland.

Mon Mome's 100-1 Aintree romp was followed by a 33-1 success for Niche Market in the Irish National on Monday and a similar shock in the Scottish National this weekend would complete a memorable treble for the bookies.

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It's been a dog's life but Bud can finally be this man's best friend

Three times this season he has made me the butt of cruel jibes in my own home. And now I have had enough. If you can't beat them it's as well to join them and, after months of ignoring his impressive rise through the handicap ranks, I'm finally ready to sign up for the Hello Bud fan club.

But first, a little detail. Our family dog is called Bud. My family thought that was more than sufficient reason to back him at Kelso last November. I thought he was underpriced on his debut for Nigel Twiston-Davies and laid him. He bolted up.

Hello Bud turned out again the following week. Once again I ignored family pleas to get with him. He won again. At least I didn't lay him that day.

By the time Hello Bud returned from a winter break at Wincanton last week the lesson should have been learned. Sadly it wasn't, and the taunts of my nearest and dearest are still ringing in my ears after he scooted in at 9-1.

Clearly, the Somerset National is a long way removed from the Scottish National both physically and in terms of quality, but Hello Bud went about his job with tremendous zest and could be named the winner long before he bounded clear of some bang-in-form rivals.

And the plusses don't end there. Because the weights for the Scottish National had already been published, Hello Bud shoulders just a 4lb penalty this weekend and that makes him nicely handicapped compared with many of this field.

He stays forever and plainly handles fast ground, while his trainer has a fine record in this race. In short, Hello Bud is a very live contender who seems to have crept under the radar of some of the main layers for this historic handicap.

But this time Hello Bud hasn't crept under my radar. He's been trading at 25-1 with some firms for much of this week and is still available at [21.0] on Betfair.

For what it's worth, I reckon he should be more like a 12-1 shot and his freewheeling style should give his followers ample potential to trade out for a free bet in running.

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Tricky another Twister ace but Coe could struggle to go the distance

Betting exchanges are the perfect vehicle for those who like to explore assorted angles in big handicaps and it's well worth scouring the rest of the Scottish National field in search of one or two more potential angles.

Much of the interest will centre around Hello Bud's stablemate Tricky Trickster, who blossomed on his first attempt at four miles when powering away with the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham last month.

He's been hiked to a mark of 147 as a result, but he's plainly an unexposed horse after just four runs over fences and with Sam Waley-Cohen reducing his burden by 7lb he has to be high on the short list.

The progressive northern hope Chief Dan George is another with plenty to recommend him but I'm less keen on Nine De Sivola, who finished second in this race two years ago but remains winless after 17 runs over fences and makes some appeal as a place lay at his current odds.

Coe is another who appeals as a potential place lay candidate. Granted, he stays forever and is another with relatively few miles on the clock over fences, but there are still a few concerns about his jumping at speed and this is the sort of test that could expose any frailties in that department.