In-running / Neil Munro / 12 August 2010 / Leave a comment Free £25 Bet

Neil Munro keeps his eye on all levels of UK racing to bring you a host of in-play angles each week - here are another four horses for the notebook

"Sermon's Mount is still a maiden after 23 starts, so he looks like a horse who will take you straight to the poor-house. But he is actually a cash generator if handled the right way."

One of the interesting factors of betting in-running is being able to make money out of horses who don't win very often, if at all. Amongst the recent eye catchers are horses with such profiles.

Sermon's Mount - I look for ways to describe certain horses without wishing to be unkind but sometime you have to be honest - Sermon's Mount is a dodge-pot. The four-year-old gelding is still a maiden after 23 starts, so he looks like a horse who will take you straight to the poor-house. But he is actually a cash generator if handled the right way. And that way is to lay him in the run. If you look at his defeats over six or seven furlongs he has run 19 times, and traded at [2.5] or lower twelve times. Amongst those low trades are eight odds-on defeats and amazingly two trades at the basement price of [1.01] *. He has also traded at [1.06], [1.13], [1.2], [1.28], [1.33] and [1.37]. So when he trades at odds-on, he trades at low odds-on. So why do people get trapped into backing him in the run? Well he regularly travels prominently, occasionally leading, and he is a strong traveller. But then we get to the business end of the race and this is where it all falls apart. He finds very little in a finish, regularly getting comments attributed to him such as faded. no extra, caught late, and could not quicken. Last time out at Brighton, in a very weak maiden handicap, he did exactly the same so I am not sure where connections go with him. I just hope that they keep trying.

Sunrise Lyric - Paul Cole's three-year-old actually won the above mentioned maiden handicap at Brighton, beating Sermon's Mount into second. Reading the above comments you would not be surprised that I don't rate the win as particularly impressive. Sunrise Lyric was already on the in-running database anyway. Prior to this win she certainly struggled in a finish, and also seemed to hang at times under pressure. This was her 13th run to get off the mark and in the previous 12 defeats she had traded seven times under [2.52] including three odds-on turnovers. But she has got her head in front, so what will this do to the filly's confidence? Well, it can't hurt but I would still be very wary of getting heavily involved next time out and I am far more likely to lay her in the run.

Billy Red - Enough of these horses who don't want to win, let's get onto the winners. In Billy Red we have a gelding who has won nine times in his career from 59 starts, a win ratio of around 16%. Billy Red is trained by John Jenkins, who goes about his work quietly but successfully at a low level. In this six-year-old he has a game front-runner who more often than not battles all the way to the line. His profile is quite interesting though, to give you an indication of when you should back him. His record on turf over five furlongs on good or faster ground is three wins, and a further three placed efforts, from 13 runs. Compare this to his six furlong record on the natural surface of no placed efforts, let alone a win, in 12 attempts. The reverse is true on the all-weather. His five furlong record on Polytrack or Fibresand is just one placed effort in nine runs, whereas over six furlongs on the Polytrack going left-handed (he has lost sight in his right eye) his record is six wins, and a further four placed efforts, from just 19 runs. So now you know when to back him and always put up an initial in-running lay at around [2.5] with a further offer at odds-on, in case he just finds a couple too good.

Dunn'o - Well I do know and so do a lot of other people. Back him at Sandown over seven or eight furlongs, where his record is three wins and three places from all six runs. So a bit of win and place is definitely the order of the day. And of course being a front-runner he does trade low in the run as well. His best form has come with a bit of give in the ground, although he can cope with good to firm. From an in-running angle his runs at Ascot are interesting. Despite it also being right-handed like Sandown, Ascot is a law unto itself, and he hasn't run particularly well there. Being a horse who goes from the front he still trades at around [4.0] - [6.0] in the run, but he just doesn't seem to finish off his races. So I will be looking to take him on when he runs at the Berkshire track and get involved backing him when he heads to the Surrey venue.

* At this moment in time I know of only two horses that have traded at [1.01] twice in defeat, Sermon's Mount and Tamarind Hill. If you know of any others please don't hesitate to let me know at munron@btopenworld.com.

Tags: Billy Red, Dunn'o, Sermon's Mount, Sunrise Lyric