Breeders' Cup 2012: Saturday - an armchair fan's guide

Writing this on Friday, I don't yet know how successful yesterday's advice has been. Nor do I know, therefore, whether I need to be betting at all. Perhaps I won so much yesterday there's no point in carrying on, on perhaps, after burrowing my way into an unwise position on a horse I knew nothing about, I lost so much money that I haven't got anything left to bet with. Given the vagaries of time, you know more of what the answer to that question is than I do.

Anyway, to the betting.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf
A friend tells me (yes, a friend) that, despite an inauspicious looking set of results, George Vancouver is the best of the European contingent on the speed figures, or "the figs" as he annoyingly persists in calling them. At a decent looking 9.008/1, then, he's worth a punt.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint
No idea. Smash in to Groupie Doll, because that's what everyone else is doing.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile
Jersey Town and Emcee have the best form on offer here, so I'm told. I have no idea why, but a US racing pro-punting friend (yes, that's two friends) has been banging on about their "sectionals" (which I think is an anatomical term), and won't hear of another horse getting near them.A split stake at 5.004/1 and 4.507/2 respectively.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint
A universal punting truth - and I don't care what the Timeform nudniks say - is that you must continue to back a horse you've previously backed until it wins for you. So I'll be backing Great Attack here. He was only just run out of it last year when carrying my money at 38.037/1, and I fully expect recompense this year at around 16.015/1.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Juvenile
Another friend - who am I trying to kid here, it's one of the ones I've already mentioned - reckons the yanks are underestimating the speed shown by Monument in his course and distance win, thinking he's at least as good as the two favourites, Shanghai Bobby and Power Broker. I'll be backing Monument at around 20.019/1.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Turf
St Nicolas Abbey's 11th-place finish in the Arc was hardly inspiring, and the same could be said of a few of his runs this year, but the ground was bottomless that day, and, if this horse has demonstrated anything, it's that he can produce when conditions are right: two Coronation Cup wins and a win in this race last year demonstrate that unequivocally. After producing the ride of the meeting last year, Joseph O'Brien is on again and the 4.2016/5 looks generous enough.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Sprint
I really have no idea, and after receiving completely conflicting opinions from my (two) friends as to where the value lies, I will force myself to sit this one out.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Mile
It's hard to criticise the achievements of Excelebration without being accused of making a heretical anti-Frankel statement, but what the hell: I just don't subscribe to the view that Excelebration has to be considered one of the all-time best milers just because he occasionally got within a few lengths of a super-horse. He's certainly a very good horse, and in many seasons would have been considered the best miler in his age-group, but that's about as far as I can go. The hype does mean the horse is severely underpriced here, though, which means plenty of value to be had by backing Moonlight Cloud at 5.805/1. When the two horses met in the Prix Jacques le Marois, Moonlight Cloud was poleaxed by two retreating horses with less than three furlongs to go and, to my mind, would have won that race with a clear run. There's very little between these two horses, except the huge price discrepancy.

Saturday - Breeders' Cup Classic
I'm against Game On Dude here. For all of his heroic front running, there is a big difference between getting soft leads and grinding your opponents down in lesser races, and being able to do so in this race - as was proved in the Classic last year when he was repeatedly challeneged and harried before being run out of things by Drosselmeyer. I can make cases for a number of the others, so the sensible play might just be to lay the horse, win (2.9015/8) and place (1.454/9).