Simon Rowlands / Simon Rowlands / 31 July 2010 / 1 Comments Free £25 Bet

We all make mistakes in life and unfortunately for Simon Rowlands, we BB editors dropped a massive clanger this week when we failed to publish the following article before Friday's action at Goodwood. Typically our midweek master blogger called the first three in the totesport Handicap. Some will call this classic aftertiming, they are wrong and we won't publish any comments suggesting it. Plainly put, it is idiocy on our parts, and we will publish comments saying as much.

Friday at Goodwood sees one of the biggest betting handicaps of the year in the shape of the totesport Mile, due off at 15:25.

As various commentators have been keen - and correct - to point out, this is a race in which the draw usually has a big effect, with those berthed high in a big field at an advantage over those coming from low-numbered stalls. The slightly increased chance of meeting trouble on the inner on this right-handed track is generally more than offset by the ground saved.

That's all well and good, but HOW MUCH of an advantage can it be expected to be, and what does that translate to in terms of odds? Draw bias or not, the principle of backing or laying horses according to value, rather than at any price, still applies.

I took the last 10 runnings of the race and crunched the numbers to get the historical advantage in the draw in terms of pounds. I then added a form assessment and an assessment of trainer form - both expressed in pounds also - to come up with a master rating for each horse in the race. Lastly, I converted these master ratings into an odds line and back/lay prices.

This is what I came up with:

Other variables could be included in the above example, but I wanted to keep things fairly simple in this illustration, and these factors are significant and largely independent (trainer form in the recent past and horse form over a longer period may be weakly correlated).

On the above figures, Sea Lord, Oasis Dancer, Webbow and Invisible Man have the best chances. But each horse has its price, and I would be prepared to back or lay any runner in the race if the odds seemed wrong.

Webbow looks likely to be available at a price bigger than suggested. While he has not won in quite some time, he is in form, as to a large degree is his stable, and he has a draw that should mean he does not have to expend too much energy taking up the position his jockey wants.

Next week I intend looking at some of the ways in which to convert ratings into odds, an example of which has been used above.

Tags: Invisible Man, Oasis Dancer, Sea Lord, totesport Mile, Webbow