Jack Houghton's Betting Challenge Week 42: Hungary hounds

Derby Betting / Jack Houghton / 29 May 2010 / Leave a Comment

Jack likes the look of Lyreen Mover

"Assuming Lyreen, Toomaline and Bandicoot are all vying for position going into that first turn, my money’s on Lyreen coming off best. The Betting Challenge is having £50 on to win at [7.0] and £50 to place at [2.5]."

Mr H will be settling down in front of the Greyhound Derby with a big bowl of goulash tonight as he bets against his namesake jolly. Meanwhile, our man gets stuck in to some football friendlies...

There is a truth professional gamblers hold to be self-evident: to be profitable, you must specialise. Losers gorge themselves of all that the great buffet of betting has to offer; winners only ever eat the cheese and pineapple sticks. Who knows what might be lurking in that couscous salad? Therein lies uncertainty, and winners have no truck with uncertainty.

Jack Houghton was a long-time follower of the specialisation theory. Many learned academics credit him with its invention. But now he's turned his back. August 2009. Armed with a £1,000 bank and oodles of likely misplaced confidence, he sets out to prove that, in a year, betting on everything Betfair has to offer, he can turn a profit.

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Who would have thought there was dog racing in Hungary? Next you'll be telling me there's modesty in Australia. It's heartening though, isn't it, to think that even in the dark recesses of the European Union, high-culture thrives. Because, it turns out, even our spa-wallowing, goulash-munching, continental partners recognise the cerebral joy of watching dice-on-legs chase a toupee around a sand-track.

And they're pretty good at it. Tonight, at 22.12 BST, the Hungarian-trained Lyreen Mover takes his place in Greyhound Derby final, with a solid chance of beating the short-priced, Irish-trained favourite, Toomaline Jack. Both are unbeaten in the course of the competition so far, but it is Toomaline Jack's early-round track record that has everyone raving, hence the prohibitive looking price: [2.14].

I'll be supporting Lyreen Mover though. Only once sent off the clear favourite in the competition, he keeps winning. In the quarters, he outmuscled Bandicoot Tipoki at bend one, and otherwise hasn't been troubled in his passage to tonight's final. Assuming Lyreen, Toomaline and Bandicoot are all vying for position going into that first turn, my money's on Lyreen coming off best. The Betting Challenge is having £50 on to win at [7.0] and £50 to place at [2.5].

Giving plenty of time to let the Wimbledon hangover subside, Sunday night sees a host of international football friendlies with seemingly huge price ricks in the early market exchanges. Some serious football punters no doubt eschew friendlies on the basis that team experimentation and uncertain motivations make them unreliable betting vehicles. But with only 10 weeks to go until I have to show a profit on this year-long escapade, I can't afford myself such abstemious luxuries. I need to get stuck in.

Mexico are huge at [1.4] to beat Gambia, and the Betting Challenge is having £150 on. Although beaten by the Netherlands and England in their last two matches, Mexico scored against both, and are a genuine top-draw international team. Gambia, on the other hand, are a class-below, having never qualified for either the World Cup or African Cup of Nations. On neutral territory, Mexico should easily sweep-aside their African opponents.

South Korea, at [1.91], look value to beat Belarus. Semi-finalists in the 2002 World Cup and a recent record of 11 wins from 18 games, they should have too much going on for a team unable to dispatch a host of recent lacklustre opponents. The Betting Challenge is having £50 on.

Luton seems a strange venue to stumble upon an international between Nigeria and Columbia, but no stranger than those who have priced up Nigeria as favourites. I'm currently working on a theory that African nations - perhaps due to the number of players plying their trade in Europe; or perhaps the media coverage given the African Cup of Nations over here - are massively over-valued in the betting on internationals, when their form doesn't warrant it. This is a prime example. Columbia are the better team and the Betting Challenge is laying Nigeria for £60 at [2.28].

On a similar theme, the Ivory Coast will struggle to beat Paraguay in France, and the Betting Challenge is laying them for £60 at [2.56].

This week's bets:
£50 BACK Lyreen Mover at [7.0] in Greyhound Derby Win Market.
£50 BACK Lyreen Mover at [2.5] in Greyhound Derby Place Market.
£150 BACK Mexico at [1.4] to beat Gambia.
£50 BACK South Korea at [1.91] to beat Belarus.
£60 LAY Nigeria at [2.28] to beat Columbia.
£60 LAY Ivory Coast at [2.56] to beat Paraguay.

Already recommended:
£20 LAY France at [2.2] to win Group A - 18/04/10.
£20 BACK Mexico at [4.7] to win Group A- 18/04/10.
£20 BACK of South Korea at [3.8] to qualify from Group B- 18/04/10.
£20 BACK of Honduras at [6.0] to qualify from Group H - 18/04/10.
£80 BACK Federer at [5.9] to win French Open - 23/05/10.
£30 LAY Djokovic at [2.32] to win French Open Third Quarter - 23/05/10.