US Open Betting: A quartet of 3-balls for Moving Day

Back Bo Van Pelt 4u @ 2.35/4 (v Ogilvy, Kim) (Starts 18.34)

There's always an amateur or two that catches the eye over the first couple of days at a major, and Michael Kim's performance so far left a very positive impression regarding his future. However, the real business starts now and I suspect he'll get swept away over the weekend. If Kim does indeed flop today, this three-ball could descend into a match between one of the most consistent weekend performers around and a former US Open champion. 

Geoff Ogilvy's 2006 victory at Winged Foot warrants respect but almost all of his form this year has been woeful. That must leave Van Pelt as the pick, as he can normally be relied upon to move forward at this stage. He's only hit an over par third round score worse than 72 three times in the past year and his resilience must be a serious asset on this course.

Back Ernie Els 5u @ 2.26/5 (v Bettencourt, Kelly) (Starts 18.45)

As Merion dries out, this US Open is going to become ever more like a classic major weekend, with strong similarities to the Open Championship. There is nobody on the planet with greater pedigree under those circumstances than Ernie Els. Besides the four major titles, he has stayed on through the field for high finishes too many times to count, even when not playing very well. Ernie has continued to look in good nick this week and, for my money, rates a promising outright trade at 75.074/1 from just four shots off the pace. He certainly must rate a solid favourite against a pair of opponents who were both 1000.0999/1 chances pre-tournament.

Back Rory McIlroy 3u @ 2.77/4 (v Woods, Castano)

Tiger and Rory are paired together for the third day running, with Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano replacing Adam Scott in their group. In addition to all the distractions involved in such a high-profile group, I just can't see Gonzo's short putting holding up on these greens, where it has proved devilishly hard just to lag putt even in receptive conditions.

Of the big-two, Rory is preferred because he's a bigger price and seemed to be finding a bit of form towards the end of yesterday's round. Tiger on the other hand was suffering from injuring his elbow and not putting all that well. I can see Woods struggling as this course dries out.

Back Brandt Snedeker 5u @ 2.35/4 (v Johnson, Herman) (Starts 19.07)

Finally a late-starting group from the back end of the leaderboard. Assuming rank outsider Jim Herman doesn't pull off an upset, this looks a match between two rising American stars with rather different skill-sets. Big-hitter Dustin Johnson is plainly unsuited to a short course requiring great wedge play and silky short game skills, and without a decent start in the rain, he'd have surely missed the cut. Snedeker on the other hand should really appreciate drying weekend conditions. Merion is going to become even more of a scramblers' course from now and Snedeker should be in his element.