American Football
01 American Football 
/ Betfair Education / 07 March 2008 / Leave a comment
Are you interested in highly volatile markets? Then Betfair NFL in-play betting may be for you. "But I don't know the rules", you may say. It doesn't take long to pick up the basics of NFL, and after only a weekend's viewing of live NFL, you should have a good understanding of the basics.
Click here for the beginner's guide to football by the NFL
As a young lad I watched NFL on Channel 4, and like a lot of teenagers at that time, was sporting LA Raiders gear. I started to play NFL computer games and I started to pick up all the rules and tactics. Then when Sky Sports and Channel Five started showing regular live NFL, I became an official addict.
How to learn the rules and better your NFL understanding
• Watch games and come to terms with rules and tactics bit-by-bit.
• Pay attention to the commentary - you'll soon work out who the expert analyst is and who's there to make the commentary interesting.
• Visit websites such as the NFL for an all-round understanding of the game.
• Play NFL computer games and Fantasy Football. You'll learn the value of formations and positions and develop a keen interest in certain players.
Betting on NFL
Outright Winner
Before New England's dominance of 2003 - 2005 there were a few long-odds Super Bowl winners and this could well happen again. With the NFL always seeking parity via the draft and salary cap, an outsider could well be good value to win, leading to decent trading opportunities as the season goes on.
Points to look for when selecting your team(s):
• Strength of the Schedule - In the NFL teams don't play every other side during the season, creating different schedules and some can be easier than others.
• Draft pick-ups - There are websites which review how teams performed during the draft.
• Trades during the off season or player retirements.
• Any coaching changes - A good coach can make a huge difference as Bill Belichick has proven. Also look at the records of offensive and defensive coaches.
Matchday Markets
Match Odds/Handicap markets - Team news can be very important. A star quarterback being a borderline proposition to play means the match odds and handicap markets can sway severely. Remember in the handicap markets, the numbers three and seven are key numbers (points awarded for a field goal and touchdown respectively).
Total Match Points - The weather and ground conditions are key. Cold, windy weather is likely to see lower scoring affairs compared to a calm, sunny day. Please note, some games are played indoors so the outdoor weather conditions won't affect the game. The offensive tactics of each team need to be taken into account - how often they pass or run the ball.
What is my favourite part of NFL betting?
It has to be in-play betting. Why? Well, the phrase "Any given Sunday" comes to mind. This phrase has been used hundreds of times when talking about the NFL. It's used to explain how any NFL team can win any game against any other team. With the point scoring system and turnovers there can be some very quick and amazing comebacks. I remember a few great comebacks from early in the 2006/07 season.
San Diego @ Cincinnati (49-41) - San Diego came back from 21 points down at half time to win.
The one I remember best was Chicago @ Arizona (24-23), the Bears were 20 points down at half time and in the second half they didn't manage a touchdown from their misfiring offence. Their special teams and defence however scored three touchdowns and after this amazing comeback Arizona still had a 40 yard field goal to win but missed it. It is not uncommon for NFL games to have a losing team matched at 1.01 at some point during the game as momentum can change so swiftly. The price graphs on each team often show massive swings during the game.
What factors should you account for when betting in-play on NFL?
• There are only two market runners in the NFL Match Odds market: Team A and Team B. This makes it very easy to trade in-running as you need only focus on the favourite's price. Key note: laying Team A is the same as backing Team B (i.e. Backing Team A at 1.5 is the same as Laying Team B at 3).
• Many US sports markets feature handicaps (Total Match Points, Denver +3.5pts etc), again making the markets just two runners and easier to trade.
• NFL scoring system - 6pts for a touchdown plus extra 1 point for an successful easy kick after or 2 points for successful conversion by touchdown. 3 points for a field goal. 2 points for a safety. You will find the most important numbers are 3 and 7 points. This is why the odds from a team +2.5pts handicap and team +3.5pts handicap can look quite different.
• The strengths of the two teams and form - you can find many stats on NFL and it will take you time to work out which are the useful ones.
• Team tactics - you will find that some teams have good offence but poor defence and vice-versa. Teams will try to play to their strengths - you may find a good defensive team may play very conservative football and not do anything risky with the ball.
• Weather - windy weather can have an affect on the game as passing would become hard and teams may run the ball more. This keeps the clock moving, but remember, not all games are played outdoors.
• Injuries - if a star quarterback goes down and their replacement is a rookie you will find the odds will soon change dramatically as team news is very important in NFL.
• Flags - plays can be overturned by penalties and can affect the final result i.e. a touchdown can be overruled by a hold. Keep an eye out for them.
• Field Position - this is a big factor to remember when betting in-play. Are they in Field Goal range? Are they backed up in their own half? Are they next to the goal line of their opponent?
• Remember overtime is included in most markets!
• Rules differ from NFL and NCAAF (College Football).
Useful links
College football - NCAA website
ESPN - news and fantasy sports
Yahoo Sports - news and fantasy sports
Covers - stats and previews for American sports
