When to Take Long Shots
Always remember that poker is fundamentally about trying to find bets where people are laying the wrong price on something.
Sometimes in poker, you have to make plays that you know have a very low chance of winning in a given situation, due to the fact that the odd time that you do win, you will get paid off very handsomely.
This phenomenon can feel extremely counter intuitive at first, as the pain of losing most of the time overshadows the thrill (and eventual profit) of winning occasionally. As a result, many players start folding hands in situations where they should basically be calling with anything, and over the long run this can have very severe effects on their game.
Imagine that someone offered you a bet where 999 times out of 1,000 they gave you a dollar, but 1 in 1,000 you had to give them $50,000. Clearly you would lose over the long run taking this bet, but at the same time, most days (some years even) you would go home a small winner and feel that you were doing OK. Compare this to the mental state of the person offering the bet, who will lose a small amount each day and feel annoyed most of the time, but will end up over the years being a huge winner from this bet.
There are many situations that arise in poker where choices like this face you. Although you can be pretty confident that your hand is no good right now, if the pot is offering you the right price for even the most long shot of draws, you have to take it.
Always remember that poker is fundamentally about trying to find bets where people are laying the wrong price on something. Sometimes this appears in obvious ways, such as when you know you have the best hand and are simply trying to generate action, but it also exists in situations where you are behind. It does not matter if your hand is a 4 to 1 underdog if the pot is laying you 6 to 1 - over the long run you will make money from calling here, despite the fact that three quarters of the time you will lose the actual pot. Do not be put off by knowing that you probably are not ahead right now if you are getting the right price for even the slimmest of draws - the only thing that should concern you is whether the price is right or not.
Prices quoted in copy are correct at time of publication but liable to change.
