Tour de France Betting Tips: Waerenskjold has 199-1 chance on Stage 12

• Jasper Philipsen (2.427/5) is a silly price

• Mark Cavendish (9.08/1) is the best-value favourite

• Arnaud De Lie (20.019/1) has gone close and can win this

• Soren Waerenskjold (200.0199/1) can cause buccaneering shock

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What's the stage like?

On the surface, the 203km to Villeneuve-sur-Lot appears to be made for a bunch finish: with only three minor, categorised climbs, and a downhill profile from start to finish, with a flattish run-in along an arrow-straight last kilometre.

Fatigue must be factored in, though. Over halfway through the Tour, and on the back of a tough Stage 11, an enterprising breakaway could be favoured to go the distance here, especially if a rider can take advantage of a 2km uphill section inside the last 10km to go solo. The most likely outcome is a bunch sprint, but having a foot in both camps to small stakes might be the best strategy.

Who are the favourites?

I suppose it's understandable that Jasper Philipsen (2.427/5) is the favourite. He came into the race with a reputation as the best sprinter in the world, and his win on Stage 10 showed that his team had remembered how to organise a lead-out.

His odds are sillily short, though. It's worth remembering that four different sprinters have won stages at this year's Tour, and that a host of others have gone close. This stage might see a growing dominance from Philipsen, but it's just as likely to see another sprinter take the spoils.

Dylan Groenewegen (8.07/1), Biniam Girmay (8.07/1) and Mark Cavendish (9.08/1) all have valid chances and could pick up the stage if things fall right for them. Cavendish would be the choice - if only because he seems angry after his team's woeful showing on Stage 10, and Cav always rides best when angry - but his odds aren't especially attractive either.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Arnaud De Lie (20.019/1) has been consistently strong in the Tour so far, and has met poor luck on a couple of occasions. He is preferred to Wout van Aert (25.024/1), who will surely pop up to win a stage at some point but whose form is hard to read.

And in case a piratical attacker is able to steal the stage from the sprint trains, I'll be having a speculative interest in Soren Waerenskjold (200.0199/1), who was disappointing in the time trial on Stage 7, but could win here if judging it right.

How will it affect the overall markets?

Biniam Girmay should only have to complete the Tour to win the Points Classification, and the 1.564/7 on offer isn't a bad bet for someone who likes those sorts of odds.

As for the General Classification, it's a day for those guys to avoid trouble.

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