Tour de France Betting Tips: Stevie Williams can surprise at 69/1 Stage 17

• Tadej Pogacar (5.24/1) can win, but might not be motivated

• Jonas Vingegaard (23.022/1) showed he can win mountain sprints

• Stevie Williams (70.069/1) will relish stage profile

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What's the stage like?

A betwixt and between stage of 178km, with the first three-quarters largely flat, before three categorised climbs - including the category three summit finish to Superdevoluy - hit riders in the last 40km. None of those climbs are especially punishing, but breakaway riders will need to be confident in their ascending prowess if they are to have realistic hopes of taking a stage win.

Bonus seconds at the top of the penultimate climb might motivate those in the General Classification race, though.

Who are the favourites?

It's unsurprising that Tadej Pogacar (5.24/1) is favourite, given his dominance in the mountains so far, but those odds look short for three reasons. First, the stage is not as hard as those where he has excelled of late. Second, when the profile was last on the tamer side - on Stage 11 in the Massif Centrale - he was bettered by Jonas Vingegaard (23.022/1) in a sprint finish. And third, as fatigue takes hold of the peloton, this has to be the best chance yet for a breakaway.

If backing a General Classification contender, Vingegaard would be the choice, but our main interest should lie elsewhere.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

To be considered, riders need to lie far enough down on the General Classification to be given the opportunity to join a breakaway, whilst also being a good enough climber to convert the chance.

Several riders qualify, including perennial triers Richard Carapaz (12.011/1) and Ben Healy (12.011/1), but you can't help thinking that both have burnt their matches on unsuccessful attempts so far: picking a more discerning rival represents better value.

Oier Lazkano (25.024/1) is prominent in the market but will need to step up significantly on known form to win this, and the same is true of Tobias Halland Johannessen (28.027/1).

Simon Yates (30.029/1) will likely wait for a harder day, which leaves Stevie Williams (70.069/1) as the best value speculative bet. His performance in La Fleche Wallonne, and his consistency on these medium mountains days, means he could provide a surprise here.

How will it affect the overall markets?

There is likely to be General Classification action, but the time gaps should not be huge.

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