Tour de France Betting Tips: Speculate at 539-1 and 69-1 on Stage 7 time trial

• Remco Evenepoel (1.454/9) is rightful favourite

• Tadej Pogacar (4.57/2) unlikely to risk all

• Speculative outsiders are the play

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the 2024 Tour de France

What's the stage like?

An Individual Time Trial (ITT) over 25.3km. At first glance the profile looks benign, but the first 14km climbs steadily, with a section on the Cote de Curtil-Vergy hitting 6.1%. The descent, which Pacmans around the perimeters of vineyards, is technical, and will frustrate the out-an-out time triallists. Expect some spills from riders ill at ease on their less-manoeuvrable time-trial bikes, where the nimbler General Classification contenders might outgun the specialists.

Who are the favourites?

It's no surprise that Remco Evenepoel (1.454/9) tops the market. He has been the dominant force in world time trialling in recent months, winning two out of his last three, as well as picking up both Individual Time Trials at last year's Giro, and last season's World Championship title. Along the way, he has bettered the other two giants of the discipline - Filippo Ganna and Josh Tarling - neither of whom are riding in the Tour, so it's hard to make a case against Evenepoel taking this stage.

Whether he is value, though, is another question. Although largely quietened now, there must remain some doubt over the depth of his recovery from that awful crash in the Tour of the Basque Country. Mostly, however, the doubt is the course: I would not want to take such short odds on a route that offers such jeopardy. Evenepoel is the likely winner, but not a rider to back.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

A valid case can be made for several other riders, although few inspire much confidence.

Tadej Pogacar (4.57/2) has claims, but presumably won't be prepared to take the risks necessary to target the win.

Juan Ayuso (18.017/1) will likely go early and feed information back to teammate Pogacar, but the course is longer than is Ayuso's ideal.

Wout van Aert (26.025/1) is interesting at bigger odds, but his crash at Dwars door Vlaanderen likely means he has had limited training time on his time trial bike.

If forced to pick a rider to beat Evenepoel, then Stefan Kung (30.029/1) would be the choice. He bettered Evenepoel over a similar distance at the 2022 World Championships, and whilst he would want the course shorter, he's not without a hope.

The recommended bet is more speculative, though: a small, split-stakes interest on Stefan Bisseger (70.069/1) and Søren Wærenskjold (540.0539/1). Both are on-the-up time triallists and might be prepared to take risks that the Yellow Jersey hopefuls won't be.

How will it affect the overall markets?

There will be movement in the General Classification, and quite possibly a new wearer of the Yellow Jersey by day's end.

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