Tour de France Betting: Martinez whopping 149/1 for Bastille Day glory on Stage 15

• Jonas Vingegaard (5.04/1) is suffering from interrupted preparation

• A breakaway might be allowed an unassailable lead

• Lenny Martinez (150.0149/1) is well-placed to cause a shock

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What's the stage like?

Nearly 200km of racing with just under 5km of vertical gain. Shorter mountain stages are the fashion these days, so this longer test will place extra demands on riders, with the stage likely to last for around six hours. Riders will be glad of the upcoming rest day.

It's not a guaranteed General Classification day, though. With five categorised climbs spread evenly through the day, and long valley descents to maintain a lead, a breakaway might prevail, provided the peloton leave them enough rope to survive the super-category summit finish up to Plateau de Beille. That final climb is nearly 16km long and has an average gradient of 7.9%, so expect more fireworks among the General Classification contenders, whether they are battling for the stage win or not.

Who are the favourites?

On these hard days, the best climber in the race is Tadej Pogacar (4.77/2), as was demonstrated unequivocally on Stage 14. If he chooses to put his team to work to bring back any breakaway, he is the most likely winner, with the only doubts being mounting fatigue from his long season, and a tendency towards tactical profligacy.

Whether he will ask his team to be active is hard to assess. A rest day follows, so he may choose to empty himself on this summit finish. But then a punishing last week also follows, so perhaps conservatism will be the order of the day. He must be part of any portfolio, though.

Jonas Vingegaard (5.04/1) is showing remarkable recovery skills to be performing at this level so soon after his career-threatening crash in April, but Stage 14 showed the effects of his interrupted preparations and he's hard to support at the odds.

Remco Evenepoel (60.059/1) is a distance behind in third, and is likely to have a day at some point in this Tour where he implodes at high altitude and loses a lot of time. It could be today, and he can be discounted.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Two things are required of you if you're an outsider who wants to sneak a breakaway win. First, you must be far enough down in the General Classification to be allowed the freedom to disappear into the distance. Second, you must be able to win on tough days in the mountains.

Oh, and third - if you're superstitious - it might help if you're French, what with it being Bastille Day and all that.

Four riders meet these rational requirements - Simon Yates (8.07/1), Richard Carapaz (13.012/1), Romain Bardet (32.031/1), and Lenny Martinez (150.0149/1) - and any could win.

The recommendation, though, is Lenny Martinez. The 21-year-old has been hoovering-up one-day races and stages with this kind of profile this season, and has been all-but absent from the Tour so far, presumably saving his energy for a stage-win attempt. And he's French.

How will it affect the overall markets?

The Points Classification is largely concluded as a betting contest, so attention is focused on the Mountains Classification - where pre-Tour 9/2 tip, Tadej Pogacar, looks well-positioned to take the win - and the General Classification.

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