Tour de France Betting Tips: Keep faith in Cavendish at 21/5 for Stage 6 repeat

• Mark Cavendish (5.24/1) has shown himself strongest sprinter

• Arnaud De Lie (8.615/2) continues to impress

• Jasper Philipsen (2.568/5) is yet to impress

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What's the stage like?

Another sprinters' day, with a flat 164km through wine country. A breakaway will go early, with the main story likely to be how well the big sprint teams manage the time gap. Assuming they do that successfully, this will almost certainly end in a bunch finish on an arrow-straight run-in to Dijon, although a very slight rise in the final run-in might disadvantage the out-and-out power men.

The weather forecast at the time of writing is forecasting winds gusting up to 22mph, so there's a possibility of crosswinds splitting the peloton. Don't rule out a surprise winner, then - especially if a team or rider can be enterprising at the right time.

Oh, and Mark Cavendish has won in Dijon before.

Who are the favourites?

The market is maintaining its faith in Jasper Philipsen (2.568/5), despite the evidence that he is not the strongest sprinter in this Tour, as previewed here before Stage 3 and Stage 5. And the result of that Stage 5 does little to support his favouritism either: he may well have come a close second, but he had no response to the sprint of the winner, Mark Cavendish (5.24/1), and it's hard to see how Philipsen will turn the tables, or why he should be half the price to do so.

Cavendish should be the favourite here, and those odds of 5.24/1 look generous enough, especially given the show of force on Stage 5 from his Astana team, who can take advantage of any cross winds that do blow.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Arnaud De Lie (8.615/2) continues to look dangerous in a sprint, and is likely to pick up a stage before this Tour is out. He relishes sprints that are a bit tougher - being a punchier rider than the average sprinter - and Stage 6 might be his best chance. Alongside Cavendish, he is the one to support.

A case can be made for a host of others, with the best value riders being Wout van Aert (24.023/1) and Alexander Kristoff (40.039/1). Van Aert might need things to be more testing to really excel, though, and whilst Kristoff is likely to be prominent, I expect him to continually find a rider or two too good.

How will it affect the overall markets?

Another stage to focus on the Points Classification, with all eyes likely on Mads Pedersen. After his crash at the end of Stage 5, will he be in a fit state to compete for points?

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