Tour de France Tips: Cavendish at 19/1 can win last ever Tour stage

• Jasper Philipsen (2.56/4) is most likely winner but is not value

• Wout van Aert (8.07/1) will have survived the mountains better than most.

• Mark Cavendish (20.019/1) has his last ever chance at Tour glory

• Use Betfair's Safer Gambling during the 2024 Tour de France

What's the stage like?

A cross-country 189km on flat terrain as the race heads towards the Alps.

At first glance, this looks guaranteed to provide a bunch finish, but the route is exposed along most of its length to Mistral crosswinds, and aggressive riding by a team or two might see the race split apart. At the time of writing, the forecast is for gusts upwards of 30mph. If that materialises, there are certain to moments of drama.

Should the winds not transpire, the sprint teams will keep any breakaway under a tight rein, before gearing up for a slightly downhill finish into Nimes. That run-in is not straightforward, though, with four roundabouts in the last 2km providing plenty of opportunity for hard-luck stories.

Who are the favourites?

Jasper Philipsen (2.506/4), after his Stage 13 win, is becoming the dominant sprinter in this year's Tour. Those odds are short, though, especially coming after some tough days in the Pyrenees, which will have an unpredictable knock-on effect for some of the fast men.

I've tipped Wout van Aert (8.07/1) to all his near-misses in this year's Tour - and there have been a lot - that to do so again would look like desperation, but he can handle the high mountains better than any of his rivals and must surely bag a stage win at some point. If there are splits in the peloton, his role as super-domestique to Jonas Vingegaard will mean he is sure to be on the right side of them.

Biniam Girmay (8.07/1) is another who will have coped well with the climbing demands of recent days, but this far into a fatiguing Tour, van Aert is preferred.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Mark Cavendish (20.019/1) and Arnaud De Lie (24.023/1) complete the roster of best sprinters.

De Lie will feel short changed if not claiming a stage win after his brilliant performance in the Belgium National Championships earlier this month suggested he is one to beat, but although unlucky at times, his performances on Stage 12 and Stage 13 don't inspire confidence.

As for Cavendish, this almost certainly represents his last ever chance of a Tour de France stage win. He's been battered in the mountains over the last two weeks, but is worth a speculative interest, as he showed on Stage 5 that he can outsprint the best when getting a favourable run-in. The biggest risk for him will be the strength of his team, and whether they can navigate any crosswinds that do blow.

How will it affect the overall markets?

Providing no one crashes, it won't. The Points Classification is now over.

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