Tour de France Tips: 9/2 Girmay and 299/1 Bettiol can better Stage 10 favourites

• Jasper Philipsen (2.89/5) and Mark Cavendish (5.59/2) poor value

• Biniam Girmay (5.59/2) favoured to continue winning ways

• Alberto Bettiol (300.0299/1) can surprise on course that suits

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What's the stage like?

On paper, Tuesday's offering is hardly an inspiring stage after the rest day: 187 flat kilometres. But on closer inspection, three devilish sprites await.

First, an uncategorised climb with 7km to go, including a section that ramps-up to a gradient over 5%, presents an opportunity for a buccaneering rider who is prepared to go long.

Second, with 500m remaining, riders will need to navigate three tricky turns, where calamity awaits.

Third, and most sprite-like of all, the second half of this stage is crosswind country. Mark Cavendish won here in 2013 when the peloton was split asunder by the gusty stuff, and enterprising teams could engineer a similar scenario here. The weather forecast? At the time of writing, gusts of over 20mph are forecast.

Who are the favourites?

The standout sprinters from the Tour so far are the obvious favourites: Jasper Philipsen (2.89/5), Mark Cavendish (5.59/2), Biniam Girmay (5.59/2) and Dylan Groenewegen (8.07/1).

Of those, Philipsen doesn't appeal. If there was a market for who would finish second, he would be short odds-on, as he has seemingly forgotten how to get his wheel in front.

Cavendish and Groenewegen will both be dangerous if getting over that uncategorised climb, but expect to see the other teams setting a lightning pace to make that as difficult as possible for them. They are both possible winners, but are difficult to back at those odds.

Biniam Girmay (5.59/2), on the other hand, is versatility personified in this Tour, and will have a strong chance of winning no matter how the latter kilometres play out.

Who are the most likely outsiders?

Arnaud De Lie (12.011/1) must surely pick up a stage soon, and presumably Wout van Aert (20.019/1) will too. But like Philipsen, De Lie keeps finding a rider or two too good, and van Aert's form is hard to read: is he struggling, or are team duties denting his personal ambition? I might regret it, but I'll avoid both on this stage.

For an outside interest, though, I will have a speculative bet on Alberto Bettiol (300.0299/1). His wins often come when there is a late climb on a largely flat stage, and his recent win in the Italian National Championships shows he is in good form.

How will it affect the overall markets?

Biniam Girmay should be able to further strengthen his hold on the Points Classification: whether he wins the stage or not, the chances for his rivals to claim points are rapidly reducing, and when more climbing comes, he is better equipped to go deeper into stages and pick up intermediate sprints. If he survives until Nice, he should wear green on the final podium.

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