Now that Festival Trials Day is in the rear-view mirror on the Road To Cheltenham, the scope for Festival ante-post betting is broadening: the novice events are taking shape and, in just a few weeks, handicap entries will be released and countless hours will be dedicated to picking out potential ricks and plots.
Usually a handful that are seemingly bound for Festival handicaps manifest themselves before entries come out, but rarely in such plain sight as at Festival Trials Day.
At first glance, the Grade 3 handicap chase on Saturday doesn't seem an obvious place to look for Festival winners: Wishfull Thinking has had his limit exposed, however high that may be, while runner-up Double Ross has probably done his winning in good handicaps for now after a couple of recent C&D victories.
Third-placed Tap Night is a different story. He's run in three Cheltenham handicaps this winter and, despite never looking totally out of his depth in even these good-quality races, his mark had slipped 7 lb by the time he lined up on Saturday. Then, Tap Night gave the strongest indication yet that we're yet to be exposed to the full extent of his ability.
Held up in a race that was run at an ordinary pace on heavy ground, Tap Night was never on terms until they turned into the straight, when he appeared on the far side with rider AP McCoy looking comfortable. After the second-last the field started to thin out. By the last Double Ross was tanking; Wishfull Thinking responding to Richard Johnson's driving; McCoy nudging. On landing Sam Twiston-Davies drove Double Ross as he and Wishfull Thinking fought out a compelling battle up the hill; McCoy gave Tap Night a smack with the whip and rode him out hands and heels for the most part.
This isn't a means to cast aspersions: there's a good chance that Tap Night wasn't wholly comfortable on the ground- he didn't travel all that fluently and previous best efforts have tended to come away from the mud.
The salient point is what's inferred from Tap Night's effort; that being that he is capable of much better than he was able to show on Saturday and that his profile is starting to have the look of one building up to something. Given Tap Night races in the colours of JP McManus- who once said of 530,000gns purchase Garde Champetre "When they win at Cheltenham they're never dear"- it doesn't take much deduction to land on where and when that something is likely to be.
Timeform Notebook:
It was a quiet week for those already in the Notebook, with none of our nominated squad of 11 making an appearance.
Nonetheless, there was a positive bulletin for Many Clouds, one of our outside pokes for Festival novice chasing honours. Indian Castle, who Many Clouds beat so comprehensively at Wetherby over Christmas, won the Timeform Novices' Handicap Chase on the Trials Day card at Cheltenham from a BHA mark of 135. It would be a bit optimistic to treat Indian Castle's last two performances as like-for-like, but it does confirm that Many Clouds saw off a useful and improving rival at Wetherby and that he's therefore justified in taking a step up in grade now.
Shutthefrontdoor - Disappointed last time but earlier efforts suggest he can develop into a smart novice.
Straidnahanna - Narrowly denied by a useful prospect at Haydock and remains unexposed.
Merlin's Wish - Staying handicap chaser who remains capable of winning off current mark.
Close House - Once again shaped as if three miles was too far; will be suited by return to shorter.
Many Clouds - Genuine type that has taken well to chasing, already showing improved form which has recently been boosted by Indian Castle.
Famousandfearless - Seemingly well regarded and type to improve for switch to handicaps.
Champagne At Tara - Shaped well on hurdling debut under considerate ride. Not knocked about last time.
Regal Encore - Looks set to enter handicaps on a lenient mark and is sure to progress.
Champagne West - Progressive novice that has rattled up a hat-trick in good style.
Pass Muster - Still potentially well treated based on fairly useful Flat form.
Dungeness - Has looked an improved horse this season and could be better over further.
Tap Night - Smart chaser who remains unexposed and is likely to have a Festival handicap as his main aim.
