Handicappers' Corner: Saphir continues to rocket through the ranks!

Stewart and Nicholls have a strong hand in the World Hurdle

Saphir du Rheu, however, is very much the one to take from this race and he looks well worth trying in graded company now, with further improvement on the cards as his stamina is tested more fully...

It is safe to say that fellow betting.betfair columnist Paul Nicholls will always attract a significantly higher readership than our weekly thoughts about ratings, but that gulf has been more pronounced than ever in recent days due to the fall-out from the decision to announce a new jockey for Big Buck's...

The trainer's spirited defence of his decision to snub stable jockey Daryl Jacob for the Big Buck's ride has meant that his yard's big-race winner from this weekend has been kept firmly out of the headlines, but we can inform our loyal readership (it's all about quality rather than quantity in our book!) that Saphir du Rheu (Timeform rating h159p) certainly shouldn't overlooked with regards to the big spring Festivals.

Indeed, Saphir du Rheu could well creep into the World Hurdle picture himself and, amazingly, is one of four possible contenders for that race representing his owner - four-times winner Big Buck's (h176+), of course, heads the other trio, which is completed 2013 runner-up Celestial Halo (h163) and Salubrious (h157). Saphir du Rheu is certainly improving in leaps and bounds at present, defying a 15lb higher mark for his win at Sandown last month to land a strong-looking renewal of the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton on Saturday. Runner-up If In Doubt (h137p) is a progressive horse in his own right, whilst the likes of third-placed Like Minded (h137) and final-flight faller Junction Fourteen (h136) should continue to hold their own in good handicaps. Saphir du Rheu, however, is very much the one to take from this race and he looks well worth trying in graded company now, with further improvement on the cards as his stamina is tested more fully.

Another second-season hurdler who has already made his mark in graded company is Royal Boy (h144), who just got the better of stable-companion Josses Hill (h143p) to land the Tolworth Hurdle, which had been rerouted to Kempton after an abandonment at sister course Sandown the previous weekend. Royal Boy, of course, had managed only third when favourite for the 2013 Tolworth and was sent off 9/1 fifth choice in a field of six this time around, but that shouldn't mean his performance should be viewed as substandard for a Grade 1 novice. That said, Josses Hill still appeals as the better prospect of the pair (at least around two miles), his relative lack of experience arguably counting against him in the latter stages at Kempton.

The Grade 2 Leamington Novices' Hurdle at Warwick regularly throws up good horses and this year's renewal was no exception. Admittedly, the nine-length winner Deputy Dan (h144p) probably isn't in the same league as 2013 hero The New One (h171), but he's clearly a formidable performer when the mud is flying and proved far too strong for runner-up Masters Hill (h136; c126p) on Saturday, though it would have proved a much closer-run thing had Irish raider Rathvinden (h135p) not crashed out at the third last when still holding every chance - albeit too far out to gauge exactly where he'd have finished.

It proved a frustrating weekend for Willie Mullins with his latest team of raiders venturing across the Irish Sea, most of which were let down by their jumping, notably the strong-travelling Vesper Bell (c142), who unseated early on the final circuit in the valuable Classic Chase later on Warwick's card. Victory in that contest went to the novice Shotgun Paddy (c148+), who got the better of the admirable veteran Carruthers (c151) late in the day in what probably wasn't the strongest of races for the money.

Shotgun Paddy's win provided a boost to Black Thunder (c148+), who'd defeated him twice already in novice company but lost his 100% record over fences when defeated by Corrin Wood (c149) in a four-runner novice earlier on the same Warwick card. The hitherto unbeaten chaser Corrin Wood is clearly much better in this sphere than over hurdles and his attacking style of racing, particularly in the jumping department, is likely to stand him in good stead for stiffer tasks ahead. That said, Black Thunder still appeals as the better prospect of the pair despite this defeat and could well reverse the form under different circumstances.
 
The most puzzling result of the weekend, though, probably took place in the new listed two-and-a-half-mile chase at Kempton, which saw Captain Chris (c169+) record just his second win since his novice chase days. A literal interpretation of Saturday's result - he beat Champion Court (c162) by twenty-three lengths, with Twinlight (c161) a further nine lengths away in third - would actually have Captain Chris running to an even higher figure (a view which is backed up by a favourable time comparison against the handicap chase run over that trip earlier on the card), but the percentage call is to take a relatively cautious view for now given that neither of those rivals ran to their best for differing reasons. 

It should be stressed, however, that Captain Chris is one of those handful of horses who is clearly best suited by right-handed tracks. In truth, a horse's perceived preference for right-handed or left-handed tracks is one of the most over-used (and ill-conceived) theories put forward by "experts" as to why he or she may have underperformed, particularly when only a very small percentage of horses in training are affected by such a bias. Captain Chris, of course, gained his biggest win in the 2011 Arkle at left-handed Cheltenham but, given he's long shown a tendency to both hang and jump right, it increasingly seems he's ideally suited by racing the other way round nowadays. After all, he narrowly failed to win the King George VI Chase last season and was pushing Cue Card (c180) close in last year's Ascot Chase until a late mistake counted against him - the latter race appeals as an obvious next target for him.



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