Handicappers' Corner: Irresistible Force breaks 130 barrier

  • Published on
Clive Cox has the best sprinter in the world in Lethal Force

Lethal Force can rightly be hailed as currently the best sprinter in the world... 

The highlight of a busy weekend was the July Cup at Newmarket, where Lethal Force put up a top-class performance. David Johnson explains how the figure was arrived at and analyses the claims of the new Arc favourite in our regular feature... 

Although currently in danger of not getting the full coverage it deserves as a result of having to share billing with York's John Smith's Cup and Ascot's Summer Mile among other notable races on the most bloated Saturday of the year, the July Cup remains amongst the most important sprint races in the European pattern.

This year's renewal was certainly representative, bringing together the winners of the King's Stand and Diamond Jubilee from Royal Ascot as well as the runners-up from those contests. In event, it was the Diamond Jubilee form that held sway as the first two there, Lethal Force and Society Rock again filled the first two places.

Lethal Force certainly put an end to any suggestion that he wasn't full value for what he achieved at the Royal meeting as he put up one of the best sprinting performances since the turn of the century, stepping up on his Ascot form even if the winning margin was slightly reduced with Society Rock getting half a length closer than he managed at Ascot.

Lethal Force has been awarded a rating of 130 for his performance on Saturday, the highest given to the winner of the July Cup since Mozart ran to 131 in 2001. In fact a rating of 130 puts Lethal Force among the best sprinters of recent times. Only Deacon Blues in 2011 and the aforementioned Mozart have earned an end-of-season rating of 130 or higher since 2000.

This figure is slightly higher than what would be expected simply from using historical race standards - they give a range of 115 (as a result of a low view of Mayson's win in heavy ground last year) to 129, with a median of 126 and mean of 125 but further evidence from the overall race time (Lethal Force broke Stravinsky's track record and recorded a timefigure of 130) and sectionals suggest that view is fully justified.

Lethal Force is actually the first European sprinter since Starspangledbanner in 2010 to complete back-to-back wins at the highest level and, following on from the retirement of Black Caviar, can be rightly hailed as currently the best sprinter in the world

The title of best middle-distance three-year-old isn't anything like so clear cut but the Andre Fabre-trained Flintshire displayed his claims for the moniker when winning the Grand Prix de Paris at Longchamp on Saturday evening.

Taking the race as a whole, the Grand Prix de Paris is a flimsy piece of form, the field finished well bunched and a number failed to settle properly after Park Reel slowed the pace down early on. Whether all of the horses end up reproducing their ratings remains to be seen, but it represents another significant step forward by Flintshire, and one that suggests there is more to come, too.

Rated 116p pre-race having won two of his first three starts, Flintshire earned a rise in his rating to 123p, a higher figure than that recorded by either Ruler of the World (121), the winner of the Derby at Epsom or Trading Leather (122), the winner of the Irish Derby, the two other major European three-year-old events contested over a mile and a half.

Flintshire's rating remains a little shy of that of his stablemate Intello (125p), but his emergence perhaps sheds further light as to why Intello seems more likely to continue with a 1m/1¼m for the time being.

Flintshire looks very much to have an Arc-winning profile at present, boasting a similar profile to the same connections' Rail Link who followed up his Grand Prix de Paris win in the Niel and the Arc, and Flintshire can be expected to tread a similar path. A figure nearer to 130 is likely to be required to win a typical Arc.

The other Group 1 action in Europe this weekend saw the first clash of the generations among the fillies at 1m, in which Elusive Kate just got the better of Sky Lantern in a controversial finish. Elusive Kate didn't need to improve on her figure of 120, particularly as she had the run of the race. 

A difference of opinion on weight for age between the BHA and Timeform means that despite being rated only 119, the adjusted figures had Sky Lantern rated 1 lb ahead of her rival but she was unable to confirm that having met interference. She too remains unchanged on 119.

Rounding up the July Festival with a look at the 2-y-o pattern races, Anjaal earned a figure of 104p in just holding off Figure of Speech (103p) in the July Stakes while Good Old Boy Lukey earned a figure of 102 for winning the Superlative. 

It comes as something of a surprise that the Superlative continues to hold onto Group 2 status (upgraded from Group 3 in 2005 having only been listed class prior to 2003) when you consider the median rating of its winner (103) lags 14 lb behind the winner of the Group 2 Coventry Stakes (117) over the last five renewals.

The other 2-y-o pattern race, run for the first time as the Duchess of Cambridge Stakes proved a strong renewal and underlined the value of the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. Although a 20/1 chance, there is no fluke about Lucky Kristale's 2¼ length success and her rating of 109 leaves her behind only Kiyoshi (111p) amongst the 2-y-o fillies. Only Sander Camillo (115) and Attraction (114) earned higher figures since the turn of the century in the equivalent race, the Cherry Hinton.  

Get open access to Timeform data for just £2.50 a day with Timeform Race Passes. It's like a Form Book, Black Book & Race Card all in one! Find Out More!

 

Discover the latest articles