Due to the passing of the Queen, last Thursday's racing at Southwell was abandoned. We only had the one runner - the NAP Prydwen that was somehow beaten despite trading at 1.25 in the running and should have won hard-held.
We move on to the final week of the competition with gritted teeth and out for redemption, and we are back at Newcastle to round off the meeting. Despite having a healthy profit in the bank, I am not one of these people who wants to sit and protect their P/L and offer up a single selection in an attempt to look conservative. I am here to play, and if there is a bet, there's a bet - tonight, there are a few, so we go on the attack!
Progressive Eeetee will be right at home on the AW
The 18:15 R37 looks like a competitive event and sees our recent dual winner in this competition, Tregony, bidding for the hattrick. Still, I am looking away from her this time in favour of Eeetee 6.05/1, who bolted up at York last time in the style of a good horse and wasn't winning out of turn after putting in a very similar performance in a Lady's Amateur Handicap at Redcar.
Every man and their dog saw the impressive performance from the selection at Goodwood, so the value is highly likely to be on the thin side, so don't back at less than 4/1. Still, he is one of the more progressive horses in this field, and his juvenile form in France suggests he could rate much higher yet.
He ran a good time figure on my clock at York on his latest outing on what was officially good, good to soft in places despite what the Racing Post website says! Now in the groove for David O'Meara, who has a habit of picking up good horses and improving them, he could easily be miles ahead of the handicapper. If he can reproduce anywhere near the form he did in France that saw him beaten by dual Group winner Botanik, Poule d'Essai des Poulains fourth Policy Of Truth and the useful Media Storm on the AW - then he could be one to follow for a while yet.
Deal me in for a double attack on race 38
At 18:45 R38, I opted to take a chance on two in this wide-open race. The first is our old friend Double Dealing 10.09/1, who was well supported in the market last week at Southwell before the meeting was abandoned. While I would rather it was the race last week instead of this, the money for him was clue enough to keep him on side.
He is again drawn well in stall 12 to grab that important position on the rail. In the hope that he settles a little better this time and improves for his latest run, he could still be a fresh horse to keep on side at this time of year. I am running out of reasons to back him, but I remain firm in the belief that he is well-handicapped on the bare form, and these conditions are right for him. Perhaps it's blind loyalty, but let's hope it pays off.
The other to keep on side in this race is Yaaser 13.012/1, who caught the eye at Ascot in a red hot race despite being ten pounds out of the handicap and is back in calmer waters now switched to the AW for the first time.
He has been really progressive this term and has not always had things drop right for him, but the step back up to 1m for which his form figures read 412 this season is a big positive. He travelled ominously through the race at Windsor (4th) when held up in a very slowly run race dictated by Sean Leavy on the favourite and eventual runner-up. He was too keen in the early part of the race and then had no run until it was too late, affecting his finishing effort.
At Ascot, the race was run much slower than you would usually expect for a Class 2 handicap, and it didn't help his chances. With a good pace highly likely here and with a bit of luck in running, he could still prove ahead of the assessor.
Well backed Mayflower poses a question
Golden Mayflower 9.08/1 has been well supported in the early markets for Amy Murphy. She did well in the Sandringham on the front end of the pace when last seen, and she arrives on the back of a break after a wind operation. Connections interestingly made a comment after her debut win at Lingfield, saying,
"We were very confident because she has done some lovely work at home, and she was very professional."
That was a bit of over-excitement - she beat horses now rated 50 odd. Still, she showed she was fairly useful on her latest outing, but it's hard to suggest she is thrown in off this rating of 81.
Drop in trip for Honky Tonk Man could pay off
In the 20:15 R41, our final selection is Honky Tonk Man 7.06/1, who has shaped as though he is well worth a try down a furlong in trip after fading late on behind Fresh Hope three weeks ago. He shaped like the winner for a long way in that contest when ridden more handily than usual, but he was too keen early in the race to land a blow at the finish and was a sitting duck.
There's little doubt there is ability in there, and he could prove better than this class of race in time. Adam Kirby looks like an ideal partner with his bump-and-ride style, and he is better drawn today. His latest outing was not the first time he has shaped as though a drop in trip could be on the cards. Newbury and Ascot saw him fade late, and he is a half-brother to three winners over five and six furlongs. He is worth chancing.
A big thank you to everyone that has supported this column over the past six weeks. It's been profitable no matter the outcome today - thank god! My next column in this sphere will be the Cheltenham Festival Focus. Until next time, be lucky.
Recommended bets
Back Eeetee in the 18:15 at Newcastle @ 5.04/1 1.5pt win
Back Double Dealing in the 18:45 at Newcastle @ 10.09/1 1pt win
Back Yaaser in the 18:45 at Newcastle @ 13.012/1 1pt win
Back Honky Tonk Man in the 20:15 at Newcastle @ 7.06/1 1pt win
RACING LEAGUE 2022
STAKED = 15
RETURNED =24.5
PROFIT/LOSS =+9.5
RACING LEAGUE P/L 2021
Staked = 30.5pts
Returned = 40.95pts
PROFIT/LOSS = +10.45pts