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Katie Midwinter gives her verdict on the Closutton favourites at Leopardstown
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Will Willie Mullins dominate at the Dublin Racing Festival?
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Rachael Blackmore Superboost
Betfair Ambassador Rachael Blackmore has some decent chances on the first day of the Dublin Racing Festival today, including one on Monty's Star in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at 15:30.
The horse has never finished outside of the top four when completing in his whole career, and today you can back him at the super-boosted price of 1/12.00 - from 4/61.67 - to finish in the top four again. To take advantage, just click on the odds in the bet banner below to go directly to the pre-loaded betslip.
Back Monty's Star to Finish Top 4 in the 15:30 Leopardstown
13:15 Leopardstown Saturday - Final Demand - 2.89/5 on the Betfair Exchange
Predators Gold made a significant impression over the Festive period and then went off as the even-money favourite for Willie Mullins in this race last year, only to lose to 16/117.00 chance Dancing City in a surprise start to the weekend at Leopardstown.
The form of the race worked out well, with the winner going on to win two Grade One contests that spring. Jetara and Stellar Story, as well as Loughglynn to some degree, also franking the form of the race, but the short-priced Closutton contender is the one who has achieved the least since of the runners who have reappeared.
Whilst the yard have saddled favourites to victory here in recent renewals, both of their previous winners have been at double-figure odds. Considering this, it might be worth looking for each-way value, particularly considering there's set to be 12 contenders lining up, as opposed to the field of six who went to post in 2024.
Walk In The Park gelding Final Demand, who fetched €230,000 as a three-year-old before winning his sole point appearance, is completely unexposed having made only one start under Rules when a convincing fifteen-length winner at Limerick.
Out of dual Grade Three winning mare in Zuzka, a half-sister to Grade Two winner Puffin Billy, the five-year-old gelding did little wrong on debut for the champion trainer, in a race run at a sedate pace he was able to stride away from his rivals with ease and is an exciting prospect.
While he was mostly accurate at his hurdles, he did jump slightly to his right on a couple of occasions, which would be a negative should he continue to do so around this left-handed track. Despite this, it didn't appear to hamper him at all on that occasion, and should he have taken a step forward for the outing, he's likely to be in contention.
There's enough each-way value in the field to suggest this unexposed and inexperienced favourite, although capable of showing plenty of progression and improvement, is worth taking on, with the likes of Pray Tell, Sporting Glory, and World Of Fortunes, all making appeal at generous odds.
Verdict: Lay
14:25 Leopardstown Saturday - Meetingofthewaters 3.02/1
At the weights, it would be brave to go against the favourite, Meetingofthewaters, who is running from a mark of 112 on his return over hurdles, 36lb below his chase rating.
Carrying bottom weight under Rachael Blackmore, the eight-year-old, who won a Listed chase at here from 130 last season before finishing third in the Ultima at the Cheltenham Festival from 147, should be too good for his rivals should he make a swift transition back to hurdling.
Difficult to oppose at the top of the market, Meetingofthewaters makes the most appeal for win purposes in a competitive field of 26 runners, however, he was less than impressive on his return when attempting to retain his title here over fences last month in December, on his first run since finishing seventh in the Grand National at Aintree, and it isn't always easy to transfer chasing form to hurdling.
This is a concern at short odds, but it may prove worth taking a chance on the gelding in hope that he is able to be as effective over timber. If he's on-song, he should be capable of taking advantage of his low mark, and he is the one to beat.
For win purposes, Meetingofthewaters is the obvious choice in this race, and should it the race pan out nicely for him, he will be extremely tough to beat from such a low weight, however, there's plenty that can go wrong in a competitive handicap such as this, and there's plenty of each-way represented in the field at big prices.
Verdict: BACK
14:55 Leopardstown Saturday - Majborough 1.84/5
Beaten in the Spring Juvenile Hurdle on this day last year, Majborough was making his debut for the yard when finishing a length-and-three-quarter third to classy filly Kargese. On his subsequent start, the exciting prospect was able to reverse that form when landing the Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham, and has since made a winning start over fences, fast-tracked to chasing as a four-year-old, beating stablemates Tullyhill and Asian Master at Fairyhouse.
Whilst the form of the race is questionable, with few threatening to get involved, it was a comfortable introduction to chasing, and Majborough appeared a natural, jumping efficiently on the whole with the scope for plenty of further improvement.
There appears little reason to oppose him in the race, and, with only six runners declared, the each-way market isn't particularly enticing. Despite this, it's worth noting the likes of Ile Atlantique, Touch Me Not and Firefox all have Graded experience over fences.
Whilst they're more exposed than the five-year-old at the head of the market, they will all be ready to take advantage should Majborough show any frailties. Jeannot Lapin, a shock 150/1151.00 winner on Rules debut over course-and-distance recently, is a big, imposing type, who could really be anything and did beat some useful rivals on his previous start.
Majborough appears the horse with the most potential in this field, given his profile, the form he has shown so far, including the progression form race to race, plus the improvement that was expected from hurdling to chasing. Jeannot Lapin is the most interesting of the others, considering his main market rivals are more exposed and must find more if they are to match Majborough.
Verdict: BACK
15:30 Leopardstown Saturday - Galopin Des Champs 1.558/15
Galopin Des Champs has cemented himself as the best staying chaser around currently and he's bidding for a third successive victory in the race, before attempting the hat-trick at Cheltenham.
It's difficult to envisage a scenario in which he's beaten over this trip at Leopardstown, considering he's 8lb clear of his nearest rival and has looked unbeatable in this contest in recent years.
Fact To File could be capable of further improvement, but he's unlikely to reach the level shown by the reigning champion and has seven-and-a-half-lengths to find on recent course-and-distance form.
Galopin Des Champs is unbeaten over fences at this track, bidding for his seventh victory here. This is his race and, if all goes well, he should be adding another prize to his list of honours.
Almost impossible to oppose for win purposes at a track where he thrives, Galopin Des Champs is the most solid favourite for Closutton across the weekend, and, barring any mishaps, he should extend his unbeaten run at the track. In saying this, there is each-way value in behind considering the short-priced nature of the favourite, with the race for third-place appearing an open one.
Verdict: BACK
13:10 Leopardstown Sunday - Ballyburn 1.8810/11
Despite being beaten seven-and-a-half-lengths by Sir Gino in the Wayward Lad Novices' Chase at Kempton over the Festive period, Ballyburn lost little in defeat over the two mile trip, finding a potential superstar too good on the day over a distance that is shorter than ideal for the strong stayer.
The step back up in trip is in his favour here, and he should prove tough to beat with few chinks in his armour. Whilst he faces a number of respected opponents in this Grade One, none of his rivals have been quite as impressive so far, with his likeliest biggest threat, stablemate Impaire Et Passe, now exposed at the highest level.
Impaire Et Passe has been near faultless over fences so far, however, and was just as impressive during his novice hurdling campaign as Ballyburn. He has the ability and the staying credentials to be a danger to the favourite here, but Ballyburn remains difficult to oppose and it may prove worth keeping him on side rather than taking him on.
Verdict: BACK
13:40 Leopardstown Sunday - Kopek Des Bordes 2.111/10
A dominant bumper winner at Fairyhouse last March, before beating a subsequent winner in Kawaboomga over this course-and-distance in December, Kopek Des Bordes has made a significant impression so far and bids to protect his unbeaten status as he steps up into Graded company for the first time.
The unexposed five-year-old is a worthy favourite considering he has been hugely impressive in both runs to date, beating some useful opponents, and he remains open to any amount of improvement.
Despite this, such short odds make little appeal from a betting perspective considering the inexperienced profiles of most of these novices, and given it's hard to decipher just how good any of them could be at this stage in their respective careers.
Redemption Day is the exception as the eight-year-old has amassed plenty of valuable experience during his interrupted career to date. Whilst it's unlikely he has a huge amount of improvement to come, he remains a threat as the Grade One winner is a formidable horse on his day, who has proven form at this level.
Kaid d'Authie has form with Majborough at Auteuil and is completely unexposed in a race of this nature, whilst Bleu De Vassy showed some useful form in bumpers before hitting the ground running over obstacles, beaten only by the talented Romeo Coolio in Grade One company recently.
Closutton pair Karniquet and Sea Of Sands were both disappointing in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle here over Christmas, but can be forgiven for one poor outing and have the capabilities to bounce back.
Whilst Kopek Des Bordes could show a vast amount of progression and prove superior to his rivals, on the form shown so far and, especially, at the prices, he's worth taking on each-way with plenty of talented horses available at generous odds away from the head of the market.
Verdict: Lay
14:10 Leopardstown Sunday - Gaelic Warrior 2.1411/10
A supremely talented horse when on a going day, Gaelic Warrior is often difficult to oppose as he can be so dominant when getting into a good rhythm, as displayed in the Arkle last year when a convincing winner. If there is a time to take him on, however, it may be at this track considering his experience was less than favourable here twelve months ago, and he was beaten by Solness when making his reappearance in December.
Last year, the son of Maxios was fractious beforehand, failing to relax in the parade ring before jumping out to his right and unseating, gifting the race to his stablemate and sole rival, Fact To File. He was able to bounce back in stylish fashion at Cheltenham, but it's hard to forget his antics at this meeting, and such short odds make little appeal as a result.
Whilst Gaelic Warrior is certainly the one to beat in this field, it's worth asking the question of whether or not he's a solid bet at such a short price, considering he often isn't the most reliable type.
He possesses a huge amount of ability, and is difficult to oppose, yet has his frailties, which the likes of El Fabiolo, although not short of his own vulnerabilities, the reopposing Solness, who must prove his recent win was no fluke, and the somewhat forgotten Quilixios, could all take advantage of.
There may be better each-way options in the field worth taking a chance on considering Gaelic Warrior is such a short price.
Verdict: Lay
15:20 Leopardstown Sunday - Lossiemouth 1.758/11
An intriguing Irish Champion Hurdle sees stablemates Lossiemouth and State Man meet for the first time on track, with Paul Townend taking the ride aboard the latter. Both are seeking a return to form after being beaten when last seen. Defeats have been a rarity in their respective careers so far, and State Man's was particularly surprising considering he was thirty-one-lengths behind the winner Brighterdaysahead here in December.
The finishing distance didn't tell the full story on that occasion, as Brighterdaysahead, alongside stablemate King Of Kingsfield, developed an advantageous lead early on, using her stamina to great effect in ensuring a stiff test from the front.
State Man is a typical two-miler and had he opted to follow the leading pair, it's unlikely those tactics would have suited him in the closing stages.
This should be a steadier run contest, yet Lossiemouth likely possesses that extra bit of stamina, which could see her prevail in the straight. If it turns into a speed test late on, it will be an interesting match between the pair, who should be too good for the rest of the field.
Lossiemouth is difficult to oppose at the head of the market, but there shouldn't be too much between her and State Man. The progressive mare must prove herself against the proven statesman in this field in State Man.
The others make little appeal for win purposes and, with only six runners, there lacks much of an each-way angle in the field considering the level of ability the top two possess.
Lossiemouth and State Man are difficult to split and it's difficult to go against either. They're both hard to oppose in this field, and they should have the race between them as the market suggests.
Verdict: BACK
16:25 Leopardstown Sunday - Future Prospect 2.89/5
Representing top connections, £150,000 purchase Future Prospect could live up to her name in this contest as she seeks to retain her unbeaten tag having won convincingly at Fairyhouse on Rules debut in December. The point winner, who is related to a number of winners, was able to beat a few rivals who have shown some form since, notably Dee's Lady, in fourth that day, who was a creditable second to Maughreen on hurdling debut this week.
Willie Mullins has won four of the seven renewals of this race, however, three of the quartet were winners at double-figure odds, the apparent second strings from Closutton, in which the yard was represented by an odds-on favourite.
That's a slight concern considering there have been 40/141.00, 25/126.00 and 18/119.00, to name a few at generous odds, in recent years. Patrick Mullins did guide 9/43.25 favourite Fun Fun Fun to victory a couple of years ago, however, and he holds leading claims of repeating that feat with this exciting and aptly named mare.
There are plenty of unexposed and unbeaten horses in the field available at generous odds, notably Amen Kate, current second favourite, as well as the likes of Bambino Fever and Glannagaullitehouse. Cameletta Vega, out of Quevega, is a half-sister to Facile Vega and Aurora Vega, and, although yet to show the same level of ability as her siblings, should have more to give on pedigree.
Course-and-distance winner Carrigmoornaspruce, although needing to reverse form with Amen Kate, is another who enters calculations, and it would be no surprise to see a big priced contender make the frame.
Although there's plenty to like about a number of runners in this field, Future Prospect does have an exciting profile and, at odds-against, could be worth keeping on side in this Grade Two event.