Wednesday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin is backing Truckers to Lodge a bold bid in Welsh National

• Eight races on ITV from Chepstow and Kempton

• Tony fancies Trucker's Lodge in Welsh National

• Big-price juvenile backed to improve a bundle

No let-up in the ITV schedule over Christmas with eight races on December 27th (we all lose track of the days at this time of the year, so I will stick with the date) and the big betting event switches from Kempton to Chepstow.

Chepstow - 14:50: Back Truckers Lodge

Ante-post betting is very small beer these days but the layers probably have their noses in front on the Welsh National at 14:50 after long-time market leader Monbeg Genius was a no-show after suffering a setback.

The ground at Chepstow is good to soft - surprisingly it hasn't changed despite 7.8mm in the last two days - but we are due another 4mm today, and 16mm on the day of the race.

Maybe even more. In fact, the BHA site are saying 20-25mm.

Even when it is good to soft, it normally pays to work on the basis of heavy at Chepstow. And I am only half-joking.

The Welsh National runners are down from 22 to a maximum field of 20 (the two no-shows were Ashtown Lad and Boxing Day winner Fontaine Collonges), so we have plenty to go at in the 3m6f130yd handicap chase at 14:50.

It is 5/16.00 the field on the Sportsbook, with seven priced up in single figures (they are paying a generous six places here), and Chambard and Nassalam are officially the two best handicapped horses in here, being 5lb and 4lb well-in after recent successes.

However, the ground was appalling when Chambard won at Aintree last time and that surely must have left some kind of a mark on him, and the 5s favourite Nassalam deservedly heads the market after his impressive win over an extended 2m7f here last time. That said, Super Survivor has just gone the 9/25.50 jolly just before this went live.

The obvious question with him is that he is unproven over this trip, and even his (uninspiring) efforts over 3m1f have hardly screamed he wants a marathon test, especially with that rain in the forecast.

If he stays, I suspect he probably wins, but that's a fair old "if" having looked at the relevant replays of his races.

Truckers Lodge looks the bet to me at 15.014/1 or bigger on the exchange ([16.0] is his current price as this column goes live). Any 12s or bigger there is fine.

He is 10s with the Sportsbook if you want to take advantage of the six places, but I am going win-only. I'll settle at Betfair SP, as with all exchange bets. He is actually 14s in a place in the wider marketplace.

The 11yo doesn't have the handicap upside of a Nassalam but he is in-form, a guaranteed stayer and one with an extensive body of work at Chepstow, including a second, third and fourth in this very race.

Hopefully, his Sandown win last time didn't take too much out of him. I'm paying to find out if it has , anyway, albeit to modest sums. As regular readers will know, I take little notice of jockeys, but 5lb claimer Freddie Gingell is getting a lot of love from those that do.

Chepstow - 14:10: Back Authoceltic

We may as well stick with Chepstow before venturing elsewhere and it will be disappointing if Burdett Road can't cement his position at the top of the Triumph Hurdle betting with success in the Grade 2 Finale at 14:10.

Mind you, the weather forecast should probably make his odds-on backers a bit uneasy.

I was a bit sniffy about Burdett Road's Festival claims after his win at Cheltenham, as I just assumed the Irish would roll out a succession of ultra-impressive juvenile winners.

That has not materialised, as of yet, but Joseph O'Brien had two of the seven in here at the five-day stage, Harsh and Cossack Chach, and they were the favourite's main market rivals at 4s and 5s respectively.

The latter stayed at home for a Boxing Day engagement at Leopardstown (ran moderately) but Harsh looked to have a fair old engine at Cork and could give the favourite something to think about in what could be very bad conditions.

Burdett Road handled Cheltenham soft, but Chepstow soft (or worse) could be a whole different level. Do you really want to be playing at the Sportsbook's 4/111.36?

I was going to leave the race alone, but it wouldn't be a massive surprise were Authoceltic to win as juveniles from this stable learn exceptionally quickly on the job.

In fact, I wouldn't put off anyone off him at 25s or bigger on the exchange, or clearly the 33s on the Sportsbook, so back him accordingly to spring a surprise. I am still filthy at myself for not tipping Hewick, so I am not going to die shy again.

Authoceltic can be expected to improve considerably for his first experience of racing when third to Salver (re-opposes here) at Exeter on his first experience of racing at Exeter and he just happens to be an Authorized half-brother (he is still a colt) to Saint Segal, who finished second in this race in 2021 after just one start beforehand.

He is worth a dart at the price in what could prove to be very levelling conditions.

Take the 33/134.00 win-only with the Sportsbook.

Chepstow - 13:05: No Bet

The 2m3f98yd handicap chase at 13:05 opens the ITV action, but unfortunately nine has become just four at the overnight stage.

Pricing mistakes, for the want of a better phrase, are far rarer in small fields and I didn't have much of an issue with the odds on offer.

Good Risk At All is a very likely lad, down in trip off a mark of just 137, but his general price of 11/82.38 hardly gets the blood pumping. Not for me, anyway.

Chepstow - 13:40: No Bet

The 2m7f131yd handicap hurdle at 13:40 has held up better, though the perennial problem with the dead eight (especially on ground set to worsen dramatically) for each way punters looms large.

I couldn't see any particular angle into the race - pace, form or price-wise - so let's us move south.

Kempton - 13:20: No Bet

The forecast for Kempton has got a touch worse - maybe around 7mm is due on race-day, and a bit more overnight - but they are starting from a base of good ground on Boxing Day, so that shouldn't make too much of a dent.

The juvenile hurdle at 13:30 kicks off the ITV action and Sir Gino has been talked up for the Triumph Hurdle for a while (currently 12.011/1 on the exchange for that) ever since he joined Nicky Henderson after winning at Auteuil earlier in the year.

It looks like a private sale but I imagine Joe Donnelly had to go to 300k+ to get him. He will go off at heavy odds-on here, no doubt. He is currently 1/21.50 with the Sportsbook.

The fact that he has had a wind op would perhaps concern me a touch, but the opposition here is nothing special, albeit Nachtgeist looked a fair middle-distance sort on the Flat in Germany.

Kempton - 13:55: No Bet

The 2m Grade 2 novices' Wayward Lad at 13:55 has also cut up to just four runners, a hugely disappointing turn-out for a pretty valuable Grade 2. Absolutely woeful, in fact, with two of the field rated 129.

Little wonder then that it is 4/51.80 Nickle Back versus 7/42.75 Master Chewy, with double figures the rest. For once, I'd be very much in the camp of the favourite. Without being anywhere near the betting trigger.

Kempton - 14:30: No Bet

The 2m Desert Orchid Chase at 14:30 is a handicap this year but the numbers haven't flowed accordingly, with just 11 at the five-day stage and down to six at the overnight stage.

I know I am something of a stuck record but, boy, is National Hunt chasing in grief. We just haven't got the numbers to adequately fill these races and I just struggle to warm to small-field races as betting contests.

Kempton - 15:09: No Bet

The 0-145 3m handicap chase at 15:09 has attracted eight entries and I wanted to get with Dalamoi here before I saw the prices.

I expected double-figure odds, given he was pulled up on his return at Chepstow, so I was disappointed with 7/18.00. And Tea Clipper, from the in-form Tom Lacey yard, could take a fair bit of beating.

Finding just two bets in eight ITV races is not ideal, but there are only two horses I will be backing, so I am tipping accordingly.

There is obviously some cracking action in Ireland too, with the return of Supreme winner Marine Nationale in a Beginners' Chase the highlight at Leopardstown, but I'll park it there.

Good luck today.

Get Paul Nicholls' views on his Wednesday runners here.