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Heavy ground excepted on Saturday
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Selections to keep an eye on this week
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Tony Calvin's sole 11/1 swing at Warwick
Low numbers and heavy rainfall
Pretty worrying numbers at the five-day stage at Kempton on Saturday where only one of the seven races has attracted more than 12 entries.
The good news is that the other contest is the biggest betting race of the weekend, the 100k Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle, and we have 27 horses to go at there.
We are probably looking at borderline heavy ground at the weekend if the forecast is only half-right, even allowing for Kempton's famed quick draining, which we saw at work in their two-day Christmas fixture. It is currently soft down Hampton Court way, and rain is set to dominate the skies for most of this week.
It is no shock that the layers are wary of the only Irish entry in the race, with Charles Byrnes' Green Glory initially heading the betting, alone, on Monday afternoon.
Actually, I was a touch surprised that the first firm up on Monday afternoon made him as big as 6/1 given the trainer's reputation in any sphere.
His 6yo has a very lightly-raced profile and he comes here after landing a punt on his handicap debut over 2m4f at Leopardstown over Christmas.
The Irish handicapper hit him with a 10lb rise for that length success, which seems harsh on paper but he did it very well from the right horses there - the second and third went into the race off the back of wins - under the trainer's son, 5lb claimer Philip Byrnes.
He gets a good press but I am yet to read that any jockey, here or in Ireland, isn't value for his claim.
The problem for his backers is that the UK assessor has followed up the Irish hit by slapping him with an extra 6lb for Saturday, though of course that is pretty par for the course. If he comes over, then he has to be fully respected.
Most entries set in stone
Only four of the 27 entries hold alternative entries this week. Outlaw Peter is in the seven-strong novices' hurdle earlier on the card, Scarface (an overnight withdrawal from last Saturday's Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle) is in the Grade 2 at Warwick, Romeo Brown is also in at Wetherby and Warwick and Up For Parol could go to Wetherby, too.
The Pink'n also ran, pretty well actually, at Taunton on Monday, so I personally would wait until the overnight decs at 10am on Thursday before backing any of those five, though the early money has actually been for Outlaw Peter, who is now into 4/1 favourite, and the champion trainer expressed a marked preference for the Lanzarote in an interview with Betfair's Barry Orr on Monday.
And it is not hard to see why the cash has arrived as the course winner does look well very handicapped off a mark of just 130 and Nicholls knows this, having sat on that rating ever since the horse sluiced up at Exeter in early November.
This is a long-term plan, though very deep ground would be a doubt (he hasn't raced on anything worse than good to soft for Nicholls, having finished second his bumper for Shark Hanlon on heavy in his bumper).
On reflection, he'd probably be my clear market leader, too - and I suspect he will be everywhere by Tuesday afternoon - though I would still wait to back him. I think we could well get a maximum field of 20 on Saturday, with enhanced place terms, and at least similar prices for most of the field, as this does look a very competitive race.
Sod's Law then that the three I most fancy away from the top end of the market - and I also can see the case for Harbour Lake down in trip - are horses that the Sportsbook want to duck at this stage, namely Dubrovnik Harry, Quinta Do Mar and last year's winner Cobblers Dream.
I clearly can't tip any of those at this stage at their current prices, but I will make the case for Dubrovnik Harry here, mostly because I can cut and paste the argument, hopefully at a bigger price - he is currently 10/1 with the Sportsbook - if he gets confirmed for the race on Thursday morning.
He is not a definite to run here, but it looks like connections are shelving a chasing career for now after he presumably failed to come up to expectations when third on his fencing bow at Exeter in November.
If he runs here, he is very interesting.
The stable is in good nick, he looks well treated on his heavy ground Exeter win last year and I reckon he was given an over-confident ride when we last saw him at Sandown for the EBF Final in March.
He finished third there, beaten a staying-on 4 ½ lengths, and is now 3lb higher but I reckon Sean Bowen would have made his move about a hurdle earlier if given his chance again.
He was always travelling well but he only got busy going to the last and the leaders never came back to him. And the form of that handicap has worked out pretty well, too.
Anyway, much more of this race, and hopefully him, later in the week. I would have happily tipped him had he been 14s or 16s, but it's a firm no from me at 10/1.
Paul Nicholls in fine form
Also on the ITV box at Kempton is the six-runner 80k Silviniaco Conti Chase at 14:05 - it is no surprise to see Nicholls, absolutely flying at present, providing two of the entries, with such a winnable, sizeable prize on offer, with the sixth-home guaranteed £1,072 - and the 3m handicap chase, featuring 12 horses, at 13:30.
The Silviniaco Conti Chase turn-out illustrates once again the folly of chucking money at races where the horses simply don't exist to adequately fill them.
They got four runners when they upped the pot to 80k last year, and everyone would be better served if that extra cash was re-distributed to other races on the card instead.
Little wonder the likes of the juvenile hurdle at 12:20 only gets eight entries with a first prize of just £4,901 at a Grade 1 track on a televised card. Likewise, the novices' hurdle at 12:55 (and that is probably a better example with 4yos a rarity these days, it seems) comes in at under 6k to the victor.
These levels are probably not far off Newbury boycott territory. Let's have some common sense, shall we, and spread the love?
I don't see a bet in any of the other televised races from Kempton but in the 13:30 be warned that Danny Kirwan, Percussion, Slipway and Tile Tapper could go elsewhere this weekend.
ITV are also showing four races at Warwick.
There are just eight in the 3m novices' chase (another 55k largely wasted on a select few in a division where the horses just aren't there) and 12 in the 2m5f novices' hurdle, both Grade 2s - Gordon Elliott is testing the water by declaring two in both races - but the handicaps have delivered the numbers.
Elliott has also come looking for handicap marks by declaring seven of the 20 in the Pertemps qualifier at 15:35.
I don't know why the UK handicapper doesn't just tell him what they are instead of going through this declaration rigmarole. I wouldn't be surprised if none of the septet rocked up, though maybe he will fill the horse boxes up if the chasers and hurdlers in the earlier races are coming over. He ran one in the race last year.
Getting a handle on the race is hard therefore - and we also have another three Irish horses entered - so I am inclined to leave to alone and see what turns up on Saturday, especially as it has been very defensively priced up at this stage, and understandably so given the running doubts. In fact, I have never seen a less appealing midweek ante-post race.
Keep an eye on Pauling's pair
The 3m5f Classic Chase at 15:00 will vie for top weekend betting honours alongside the Lanzarote Hurdle and, to get the housekeeping out of the way, I should add the current going at Warwick is soft (good to soft in places) - and it will be soft at a minimum if the forecast is correct - and that Slipway and Tile Tapper are also in at Kempton on Saturday.
Elliott also has two in here as well, so maybe he does intend to invade Warwick mob-handed, but the one that I was drawn to most was Nestor Park.
Ben Pauling also the aforementioned Slipway in here but obviously Nestor Park has no other options this week and he has a lot to recommend him.
He is a 10yo (though a lightly-raced one at that) and he doesn't have any secrets from the handicapper as yet, but he scores highly on every other count.
He ran well when third over 3m4f at Haydock in November, his first run since April, he is a course winner, he will relish the testing conditions and, of course, he hails from a yard which remains in blistering form.
Pauling can boast an unbelievable strike rate of 41 per cent with his chasers this season , with 36 winners (so a decent sample), and his new set-up at Naunton is clearly going great guns. And I like the fact that Nestor Park had a good break since Haydock, as he won at Newbury last season after a similar two-month absence.
The danger of backing him now is that that Pauling could rely solely on Slipway (even though Nestor Park is in different ownership) but I am personally going to have a small bet on him at 11/1 win-only with the Sportsbook.
I did worry that they may keep him back for Newbury next Wednesday, as a lot of his best form has come at that track, but he isn't eligible for the 0-130 2m7f handicap chase there.
He will not be a big shortener, so I would not chase his price down below 10/1 - that'd be a strict recommendation, especially with the no-show a possibility (you may want to wait) - but he is worth a modest investment.
Be warned though, as he apparently missed possible engagements at Newbury and Doncaster over Christmas due to "slightly puffy joints" and had an easy week as a result, but the fact that he has been entered suggests all is well now.
Like I said, whether you wait or not is up to you, but I'll have a very small play myself now and press up in size if he gets the green light on Thursday.
Good luck.