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Tony Calvin analyses the ITV weekend racing
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Our resident tipster locates a 9/2 tip at Doncaster
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Read his exclusive thoughts on the week ahead
Watering to play its part
Racing from three courses on ITV this Saturday, so let's get the going housekeeping out of the way first.
Newbury will be relieved that they can start watering again on Wednesday, so expect the current going to description of good (good to firm in places) to ease considerably for their two-day meeting starting on Friday, even with no rain around.
Newbury's clerk of the course Keith Ottesen's hair may start growing back now, though, given some of the field sizes at the track on Saturday I wonder whether all trainers were aware that watering will re-commence there on March 1.
Kelso is good to soft and that seems a fair working assumption with a little bit of rain due throughout the week - they say they are aiming to maintain current conditions, which may mean watering I guess - while Doncaster is good with minimal rain due, so they be will turning on the hoses on, too.
Maybe good to soft all round then?
All eyes on Mctigue
We will kick off with the only early-closing race of the weekend, Kelso's Morebattle Hurdle at 13:50, run as a handicap for the third time since switching from a lack-lustre conditions race two years ago.
Trainer Emmet Mullins and owner Paul Byrne's The Shunter won the 100k bonus in 2021 for any horse winning this handicap and then following up in any race at Cheltenham, and the feared Irish duo seem to be lining up another job with Mctigue on Saturday (the horse has four Festival entries next month).
He hasn't been sighted in his last two Graded starts at Auteuil and Leopardstown (he was sent off at 33/1 on the latter track on Boxing Day, and at a Betfair SP of 60.49, and he was not given a hard time when dropping away from halfway).
However, he had earlier beaten the subsequent, runaway 11-length Grade 1 winner St Donats in France back in October and he could prove very fairly handicapped off 142 here, even if the UK handicapper has added 6lb to his Irish mark.
That French win has worked out very well outside of St Donats, too.
The 10-length third was only just touched off in a Grade 2 chase next time, the 20-length fourth chased home St Donats in that Grade 1 and the 24 3/4-length fifth won a chase by 6 lengths on his following outing.
This horse was also rated as high as 98 on the Flat when with Jim Bolger, with plenty of his form on decent ground, and you can fully see why the bookies pretty much don't want anything to do with him at this stage.
In addition, as a 4yo, he gets 10lb from the older horses, too. And, bizarrely, he is the only youngster of that age in here too, which is yet another nod to Mullins and Byrne's excellent race-planning.
I always look for negatives in short-priced horses in handicaps, perhaps overly-so - Kitty's Light was the latest recent, errant example - but I wouldn't want to be laying him here at the current prices, with the first two firms up on Monday making him 4/1 and 5/1 favourite.
The 5s was taken and the Sportsbook are ducking him at 3/1.
It really isn't hard to see him sluicing up, even though it does look a pretty tasty handicap with a lot of depth, to be fair.
Plenty still to be pulled
There were 47 in the race prior to Monday's latest entry stage at midday (there weren't even any other 4yos in the race at this point) and we are down to 26, with a maximum field of 16 allowed on the day.
Seven of the 26 are entered elsewhere this week and these are Nells Son, Benson, Onemorefortheroad, Gipsey De Choisel, Lebowski, Glorious Zoff and Enemy Coast Ahead.
With top-weight I Like To Move It (on 157) being taken out on Monday, the weights have been raised significantly - the highest rated in here now is just 143 - and that has dragged nearly all the remainder into the handicap bar Enemy Coast Ahead, Ginger Mail and Traprain Law.
Dan Skelton had five in here prior to Monday's five-day entries - including Faivoir, placed in the last two renewals - but he is down to just L'Eau Du Sud, a that horse that has been on my radar for a while.
In fact, I tipped him ante-post for the Grade 2 The New One Hurdle at the abandoned Haydock meeting in January, as I thought that race would cut up and he shaped so well at Kempton in December, but I have to say his current price of 8/1 does little for me at this point. And each-way punters should be aware the Sportsbook are going three places here.
Looking at all of the prices, frankly none stand out at the moment - Hardy Du Seuil and Deere Mark are two others that I would shortlist, but they are easily left alone for now at 10/1 and 8/1 respectively - and I'd be confident you'll get the same odds about most with an extra place or two come Saturday.
So we have to wait.
There are three other Kelso races on ITV and here are the double-entries for those.
In the 2m2f Grade novices' hurdle at 14:25 they are Atlanta Brave and General Officer.
In the 2m4f189yd handicap hurdle at 15:00 they are Benson, Clay Rogers, Enemy Coast Ahead, Hunters Call and Nells Son.
Zanza is the only qualifier in the Listed 2m7f Chase at 15:35. And you'd think he would be heading for his beloved Newbury.
If I knew Hunter's Call was running at Kelso, I'd have been all over him at 20/1 for the 2m4f+ handicap hurdle as he has dropped to a very lenient mark of 134 after running two respectable races this season.
Yes, I know he is 13yo and I have a weak spot for the oldies etc - but he is also in a 3m race at Doncaster on Saturday.
And not backing double-entered horses ante-post is one of my few betting rules.
I'd actually make Kelso as favourite for him as the only time he has run over 3m was twice back in 2017, but I have to stick to my guns and not back him here. The price for the effective double (i.e. going to Kelso and then winning) is probably more than 20s.
And he could face some younger, progressive rivals if going to Kelso and connections may have decided he wants a trip again at his age, for all I know.
Outside of him, nothing else interested me at Kelso. Looking at the prices in the other two ITV races there, I think you will probably get broadly similar prices on the day (if the field sizes stand up as expected) without the worry of whether they will be confirmed on Thursday morning.
The Sportsbook have priced up three of the other five ITV contests.
Does He Know my only bet
There are disappointing field sizes for the Veterans'' Chase and the Greatwood Gold Cup at Newbury but I thought Does He Know would be the clear favourite for the Grimthorpe Chase at Doncaster at 15:15, so he represents a smidgeon of value at the Sportsbook's 9/2 win-only.
Now, he is going to be giving lumps of weight of away here (if he runs, fingers crossed) and apparently he isn't that big of an 'oss, but he defied 12st when winning a 3m3f Cheltenham handicap that worked out well in November, so hopefully that won't be an issue.
He ran as well as could be expected over an extended 2m7f, a trip shy of his optimum, when third in the Grade 2 Betfair Denman Chase last time.
The winner Zanza obviously just loves that gaff and the second, Hitman, went into the race rated 160.
So in finishing an 8 ½ length third, giving the front two 4lb, he posted a very solid effort and the handicapper actually dropped him 1lb for it.
He is entered in the Midlands National a fortnight on Saturday but this race is surely a must for connections, given it is a big pot (36k to the winner) and the race has attracted just 12 entries, and the ground looks like being ideal for him.
Well, I hope it is anyway, as they are starting to water again on Tuesday - they watered the whole course last Friday and on Monday, too - so I sincerely hope they don't stuff it up for horses that like a decent surface.
Trainer Kim Bailey has had a poor spell recently - El Rio fell at the last when odds-on to win at Chepstow last week - but Does He Know could well break that spell.
I am not saying he is a maximum bet at 9/2 at all, so I will only bet him small, but I thought he'd at least a point shorter and he appeals as the pick of the ante-post prices here and now.
Good luck.