Thursday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin sweet on Story at York

All betting roads lead to the 1m handicap at York at 15:00 on Thursday, and I'd be pretty keen on both What's The Story and Trais Fluors, so I will be taking that pair against the field, thank you.

I'll start with What's The Story, who represents a very solid each-way betting proposition at 10/1 each way, four places, with the Betfair Sportsbook.

Let's get the obvious out of the way first with him, and that is his liking for this track.

Twice a winner here, including in this race in 2019 and off a mark of 103 on the other occasion, he has dropped to a very attractive level of 97 here and that makes him a decidedly enticing win and place bet.

As is often the case with my handicap bets, What's The Story is the joint-oldest horse in here at 8yo and he clearly does not have the upside of the 4yo Isla Kai (who, admittedly, could take some catching from the front), but what he does have are the above - that winnable mark and great course form - and two runs this season which the assessor looks to have underestimated.

Let's take his reappearance run in the Lincoln first.

He could manage only 16th of 22 there but no way was that representative of the way he ran. He clearly didn't perform badly anyway, as he was beaten just over 6 lengths, but he got a torrid run through and I thought it was an unheralded but highly encouraging performance.

He then went to Kempton on the all-weather last time, his first effort on the track, and he ran perfectly well in fourth, even though I am far from convinced that right-handed course would have played to his strengths. All of his best form has come this way around.

He has been dropped 4lb for those runs, and he is now back down to his lowest mark since winning this contest (off just a 1lb lower mark) in 2019, and I am very keen on his chances, especially with good ground being perfect for him, too.

Trainer Keith Dalgleish was operating at a 21 per cent strike rate going into Wednesday's racing, and I am struggling to find any negatives.

Some may point to his draw in 12, but he won this race from trap 16 three years ago and I don't think there is any draw bias around York's turning mile.

I fancy Fluors too

I was surprised when Trais Fluors opened up at (an industry-best) 10/1 on Tuesday morning, and less so when he was pretty much immediately cut into 8s. But I still think that price is worth taking, each-way, four places.

I did look at his inconsistent record and think "win only" but I do want the places on my side here.

He has a very similar profile to What's The Story in that he is also an 8yo on a winnable handicap mark, 5lb below his Sandown win last June, and having shaped better than the bare form of his two runs this season.

Granted, he has only been eased 1lb in the weights for those brace of efforts but his seventh in the Lincoln was a good return and he was never going to be dropped for his 10th in the Thirsk Hunt Cup last time, as he never saw daylight at any stage and would arguably have gone close to winning had he got any sort of a clear passage from 2f out.

He hasn't shone in two outings here but there is a race to be won with this horse off 87, over 1m on decent ground, and this could well be it.

I really like both of the above, so I will also suggest you also put them in a small reverse forecast. I am going to, anyway.

Thoughts from the opener on...

Thursday's York card opens up with a 5f handicap at 13:50, with Raasel predictably heading up the betting at around the 4/1 mark.

He doesn't interest me at that price, having gone up a harsh 7lb for that Goodwood win last time, and I'd prefer Copper Knight towards the top of the market as he goes for a hat-trick in this race after blowing away the cobwebs at Musselburgh last time.

I thought his price of around 7s on the exchange (and 6s, four places, on the Sportsbook for each-way punters) about him was fair - again, he is the old man of the party as an 8yo and we have an established I am a sucker for that - but in the end I decided this isn't a race where I was going to be having a bet, so no tip follows.

It is a sprint handicap, after all, and a few others did catch my eye as well, with Alligator Alley the pick of the horses priced up at double-figures on the exchange (though the 12s with the Sportsbook has been trimmed into 9s, and any 10/1+ could soon be a distant dream) after a good return following a long lay-off at Wolverhampton.

Apparently, this race has always been the plan for this course winner for a while, so there is little surprise the early money has been for him. And it may continue to come.

The Group 2 Fillies' race at 14:25, is no less tricky in its own way, as it is easy to make a case for each of the six at their prices.

There was an initial over-reaction to Ryan Moore's name appearing on Noon Star, with 1m1f Dahlia Stakes runner-up Ville De Grace being originally put in at 9/2, but she was soon trimmed into 7/2.

And, again, you can see why, as she would have won at Newmarket had she kept a straight line (maybe got a touch tired on her comeback run?) and with the step back up to 1m2f looking sure to suit.

Again, there is no need to force a bet here, especially with that 9/2 no longer available and Thunder Kiss in particular looking a dangerous rival.

King Of Bavaria looks the right favourite in the 16:10, but he looks like going off around a 7/4 chance - the early 9/4 in the marketplace was taken - and there is no juice in that price.

Bodegon a bet in Dante

And that leads us to the Dante at 15:35, a race in which I am happy to take El Bodegon and Royal Patronage against the field.

The former is a bet at 5.04/1 or bigger on the exchange, and in truth remains one at 3/1+.

El Bodegon should be the clear favourite (how one firm initially made him 9/2 is anyone's guess) as he is the only Group 1 winner in the field and proven over the trip.

I don't think we should necessarily dwell too much on the fact that the horse he beat in that Saint Cloud Group 1 on deep ground was a certain Stone Age, the current Derby favourite - he has clearly improved, and is better suited to a decent surface - but it was clearly no negative to see that horse dominate at the weekend and James Ferguson's colt beat him by 1 ½ lengths, with Sandown Classic Trial third Goldspur in behind and impressive recent Curragh scorer Buckaroo in fourth.

This horse should be nearer 9-4 than 9-2 in here, and apparently it was basically good ground when he was third over an inadequate 7f at Longchamp last September, so the going here hopefully won't be an issue. If they did get any unexpected rain, I imagine he would definitely go off as the jolly.

He may do, anyway.

Royal Patronage is the other wildly over-priced horse for similar reasons, as he is rated alongside El Bodegon on an official mark of 112 on his juvenile exploits - they are easily the form pair going into this race - which included a Group 2 defeat of the Guineas winner Coroebus in the Royal Lodge, for all you could easily argue he was a touch flattered there.

That victory led me to put him up at 33s for the Guineas and he ran perfectly well from the front before weakening to finish eighth, if not well enough for my betting balance.

Perhaps they have always seen him as more of a Derby horse though - I saw Harry Herbert interviewed before Newmarket and Old Posho certainly suggested as much - and this horse has plenty of stamina on the distaff side, even if he is by Wootton Basset.

He won the Acomb Stakes here last season, his best form has come on decent ground, and his proven talent deserves a price nearer 7/1 than 11/1. He is the latter price with the Sportsbook if you want to back him there and get filled immediately (which made be the best move, as I can see him shortening up all right).

In fact, I will recommend you back him there, win-only rather than the exchange.

We have also a race from Salisbury but it has attracted just the six runners, and I didn't have a betting opinion on the 1m2f handicap at 14:05.

Good luck, and stay safe.