Thursday Racing Tips: Headgear the key to Tony Calvin's two tips at Doncaster

I will happily write until the cows come home if you give me a good betting card to go at - and frequently do - but it is fair to say that Doncaster's diet of three juvenile races and an eight-runner fillies and mares Group 2 is certainly not my idea of punting heaven on Thursday.

And I am content to leave the Racing League action from Southwell, which would not be one of my favourite tracks anyway, in the evening to others.

It got to the point that I even found myself contemplating a bet in the Jump Jockeys Derby at Epsom, for god's sake, though to be fair we do have a handicap at Donny to dissect as well.

A tricky nursery to open the card

We will crack on in chronological order on the second day of four at the Doncaster meeting - the course missed all Tuesday's rain by the way, and it remains good (good to soft) in places - and a rather tricky nursery at 13:25 to say the least.

Tricky indeed. I am going to sound like Jack Nicholson in a Few Good Men here, but are there any other kind of nurseries?

Nothing stood out from a time or form perspective, though it was no surprise to see the first firm up make Bonny Angel and Misty Blues their market leaders.

The difficult horse to gauge is Ralph Beckett's Palm Lily, who won on her debut at Kempton and took her chance in the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes next up, a race in which the stable had the 6/5 favourite and winner.

She predictably failed to figure but, if that was a genuine entry on homework ability, a mark of 83 could see this 290,000 guineas yearling and well-related filly very competitive.

But it is not a betting race for me, even if Cathy Come Home probably made most appeal after taking too long to get going over 6f at York last time.

Xanadu would take some stopping at best in Sales race

It is pretty amazing that the £300k sales race at 14:00 has only attracted 15 runners, when there is a maximum field of 22 allowed. There is even over £7k on offer for the tenth horse home.

I know all the 3yos and 4yos are being snaffled up, but where are the eligible youngsters for this monster pot?

The Betfair Sportsbook were first up on this race and made the Gimcrack third Cold Case their 2/1 favourite but it looks a much deeper race than that opening price suggests, even if he is predictably a bigger price on the exchange.

Magical Sunset's debut defeat of Sakheer has obviously been royally franked by the runner-up, and plenty of others in here have big chances on their best form, including Legend Of Xanadu and Waiting All Night down the bottom of the weights off 8st 8lb.

Legend Of Xanadu would take some stopping on his Woodcote win or his Newbury third to Chateau, and he has won on good to soft, but he does seem to have lost his sparkle.

Unbeaten Johnston runner a worthy fav

The 10-runner Group 2 May Hill Stakes has only attracted winners but Dance In The Grass is a very strong favourite, and rightly so, as her 7f Sandown victory has been franked by the subsequent Group 3 win of the runner-up.

And that win came in a good time, and in a manner which suggests the extra furlong here will very much suit.

But backing horses at her prices (she is currently evens with the Sportsbook) against a good bunch of unexposed rivals with proven winning attitudes - and open to improvement stepping up in trip - is probably not the wisest and, on balance at the price, I would rather be against her than with her.

But, if in doubt, simply don't bet. It is the punter's biggest advantage after all.

First time hood and extra trip both in Mimikyu's favour

Urban Artist would have broken my heart, if I had one, when getting picked up late on by Sea La Rose after being given a swashbuckling ride from the front at Goodwood, and she was actually coming back for a bit more at the end after being headed. She certainly didn't capitulate anyway, so it was a pretty remarkable effort.

I can see her going well again in the eight-runner Park Hill Stakes at 15:10 but Eshaada is the obvious one to beat and I couldn't rule out a few others either.

And, if you love a headgear stat, check out Mimikyu wearing a hood for the first time.

John Gosden was 24 from 98 with this option since 2011, and is 5 from 12 since he teamed up with the Real Slim Thady, so it will clearly not be the greatest surprise if this filly (20-1 in a place on Tuesday) bounces back from a York disappointment last time.

Her sisters Journey and Indigo Girl put up their best efforts in a hood too, winning in Group 1 and 2 company respectively.

That's quite a powerful headgear argument and she was a touch too keen on the outside at York last time when disappointing, too. And her dam won the Prix Royal-Oak over an extended 1m7f too, so this step up in trip could well suit, as well.

I was going to pull the tipping trigger, but I was dithering about whether to put the gun down, as she does need to improve dramatically here.

But the 16/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook has to be worth a win-only poke (the danger with the dead-eight rules out an each-way play).

Prior to her run last time, she had hosed up in a small-field handicap at Newmarket and had earlier beaten Time Lock in the soft at Haydock, and the runner-up was only beaten a neck by St Leger supplementary Haskoy at York last time.

Kingdom has a good chance for red-hot stable

The Godolphin team must really test their team out in headgear at home, as they churn out some mightily impressive stats in this area and Charlie Appleby is 31 from 108 with first-time cheek pieces since 2016.

That points to New Kingdom's chance in the 7f handicap at 15:45, especially as I like the angle of the horse stepping down to 7f for the first time since his debut following a tame effort at York last time.

He is clearly a very quirky and awkward sort, having been already tried in a hood, but you do get the impression they had far loftier plans for this horse at the turn of the year and maybe pieces are the key.

He is in with a fair chance here on his Newmarket third to Jimi Hendrix two starts ago, and he is a backable price from a stable in red-hot form (9/1 in a place on Tuesday).

Admiral D against shaped better than the bare result last time and the favourite Zainalarab has an obvious chance, but I am going to have a small bet on New Kingdom at 9.08/1 or bigger on the exchange.

I would be worried if the ground turned soft (8mm is due on Thursday according to one forecast, less on others), but he is worthy of a minor interest as it stands. He is 15/2 with the Sportsbook if you want to play there.

Adayar's return in the 16:20 is not on the box but just as well as the £50k race has attracted a pitiful three entries. The contest now has attracted 3-3-2-6-4-4-5-3-6-4-5 runners in the last 11 renewals and it surely should be binned off.

Thibault has big chance at Epsom but price a tad too short

Over to Epsom then for the aforementioned Jump Jockeys Derby at 14:15.

I have no idea if James Davies is a stylist on the Flat - he is only 3 from 92 in bumpers in the last five years - but he has come in for a handy ride on Thibault here.

The horse was ridden by a very inexperienced claimer over course and distance last week but still finished a good second and he is 1lb well-in on that effort, where he split two last-time-out, well-fancied winners.

Given that was his first run since May (he had won three of his four previous hurdles starts) and he was very weak in the betting - he drifted out to 25/1 and went off ten points bigger at Betfair SP - he surely has an excellent chance if Davies can point him in the right direction.

He is ground-versatile too, and his Epsom trainer could well have used last week as a stepping stone for this.

But he looks like being a 5s poke (there was an out-of-place 7/1 in the marketplace, which has just been trimmed into 6s) and that is probably short enough to deter me, especially as it is a Mickey Mouse race in truth.

So much for brevity, as that's 1,500 words. Good luck.