Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin on Ascot and going for 9/1 Gold at York

• TC's happy with Deauville Legend bet at Ascot

• Wide draw could help him overcome Hukum

• 9/110.00 bet can pounce at York

Showers expected at Ascot and York

Ascot's two-day meeting on Friday will probably start on soft, good to soft in places, after they got a pretty much expected 17mm of rain on Wednesday afternoon through to Thursday morning. That may well remain the case for the King George card.

However, I am working on the basis of good to soft (maybe even a touch quicker) on Saturday as it is largely dry from here on in, with modest temperatures for the time of year, though there are light showers forecast. They could be heavier than expected, I guess.

As for the other ITV meeting at York, they are set to begin their two-day meeting on Friday on soft, good to soft in places, with scattered showers, and minimal rain, over the next two days, so it could be the same ground scenario as at Ascot come Saturday afternoon.

And, by the way, fair play to both tracks for their live weather tracker (the only tracker to use, obviously) on their sites. They give us insomniacs an early heads-up.

Simca Mille withdrawn

Right, straight into the biggie, the King George at Ascot at 15:40.

I went with Deauville Legend at 40/141.00 and Simca Mille at 33/134.00 win-only, ante-post, on Monday and we have lost four at the overnight stage.

They were the injured Desert Crown, the Aidan O'Brien duo of Adelaide River and Broome, and my pick Simca Mille, unfortunately. Apparently, the latter's trainer thinks his Prix Niel winner on soft, and his Ganay runner-up on even deeper ground, "needs" it fast.

Trainers often baffle me, but such is life. Apologies, obviously for another ante-post no-show.

Ascot - 15:40: Stick with Deauville Legend

At least our other ante-post bet is live and Deauville Legend ran really well when fourth to Pyledriver on his return in the Hardwicke - he didn't get a clean trip or much racing room on the inside in the closing stages - and I'd be very hopeful he can build significantly on that, given this is just his 10th start.

He needs to, mind you. His best form in this country has come on good or quicker ground - he was very impressive in the Voltigeur on good ground just three starts ago - and, while I have no idea if his Melbourne Cup fourth on soft equates to soft ground over here, Timeform do, and I can't see it being that bad on Saturday anyway.

He ran a huge race in the Melbourne Cup when probably not quite staying 2m in the soft ground (the trip was surely the main issue there in a race in which he was sent off the 17/5 favourite). I have looked at his Hardwicke a few times now and I would have liked to see how much closer he would have got there with a clean run, with his rider being able to get more aggressive in a sustained run. He still traded at a low of 2/13.00 in-running.

Presumably, he will have come on a lot for that race, his first since Flemington in November. I think he is a horse with upside given his profile. The current Betfair Exchange price of 38.037/1 is plenty fair enough, but I suspect it is likely to get bigger with so many Group 1 winners in opposition.

I am not sure why Oisin Murphy takes over from regular pilot Danny Muscutt but it makes no difference to me as long as the Irishman can chart a clear path. More about that, shortly, but I am happy to stick with my just ante-post play.

You can obviously make a case for at least eight in here given the depth of the race, so I will park it there, though I think Hukum is the most likely winner and I have backed him at 9/25.50 ante-post.

Quite simply, I think he is the best horse in the race on his Coronation Cup dismissal of Pyledriver last season, and I was blown away by his defeat of Desert Crown over 1m2f in the Brigadier Gerard on his return from serious injury.

The Sportsbook is rightly ducking him at 10/34.33 and I do think he is a fair price at 5.04/1 or bigger on the Exchange, but there is one off-putting factor.

One especially interesting aspect of the race is the tactical element of the O'Brien forward-goers in one, two and five, with Auguste Rodin widest in 11.

It wouldn't be the greatest surprise if Luxembourg, Bolshoi Ballet and Point Lonsdale created a wall down the inside, so Hukum in four (and King Of Steel in three) could find himself in early bother. I like fact that Deauville Legend is drawn out wider in nine.

Something to bear in mind, anyway.

Ascot - 15:00: Tacarib Bay backed in

The big 7f handicap at 15:00 is obviously devilishly competitive - and made even more curious by the fact that I couldn't see one guaranteed front-runner in the 27 - but the one who I thought was overpriced ante-post on Tuesday was Tacarib Bay at 25/126.00.

Thankfully, I have been priced right as he trades a lot shorter. For now, at least. The Sportsbook are just 12/113.00.

Admittedly, I have some history with the horse, and we all know familiarity tends to breed laziness in tipping and betting terms, but it may well be that a gelding operation has arrested the slight decline we have seen from him on his last two starts.

He has always been something of a tricky sort - it may be just coincidence but two of his best efforts have come in first-time headgear - so hopefully cojones off has straightened him out.

He is also back on the same mark as for his last success, at Haydock last July (over 7f on soft ground), and he has always run well off a break, so his absence since a lack-lustre run at Newmarket in April is not too concerning.

He obviously has a lot of form over a mile but I think a strongly-run 7f could well be his optimum and two of his better efforts have come at Ascot (in the aforementioned first-time blinkers and cheekpieces).

They both came over a mile but looking at his finishing effort in his three-length third of 20 in the Balmoral here in October (big-field handicap form at this track is a valuable commodity, and he was also 1lb higher there), I'd say the furlong less would suit him here.

He currently trades at 17.016/1 on the Exchange and that is a very fair price from a midfield draw that gives his jockey's options given the lack of a confirmed blitzer from the front.

But, as with the King George, I won't press up. I was tempted, though, as I was with Deauville Legend's exchange price.

Baradar was 20/121.00 in place and 16/117.00 and 14/115.00 elsewhere on Monday morning and the move for him has continued.

He has a huge chance on his Lincoln third and his Victoria Cup sixth - he was given a poor ride on the latter occasion - and you can ignore his Buckingham Palace run as that came on good to firm ground.

Wednesday's rain was a godsend to his chances but surely his price has simply gone for now and the first-time cheekpieces is an unknown. The Sportsbook made him their 11/26.50 favourite early on Thursday afternoon.

Ascot - 13:50: No bet

The fact that form horse Soprano ran at Sandown on Thursday, and currently remains in the field for the Group 3 Princess Margaret Stakes at 13:50, makes life very tricky for bookmakers and punters alike.

The one I was immediately drawn to was York winner Symbology simply because Clive Cox's 2yos have a habit of being very useful if managing to score on his debut.

Plenty of his very good ones get chinned first time up - indeed his recent 2-length Group 2 July Stakes winner Jasour was beaten on his debut at Salisbury - so I'd say this 230,000 half-sister to El Caballo has the potential to be very useful.

And Cox has a decent batch of juveniles this season, with 13 wins from 41 runs in this department.

However, I am not playing in the race. Too many ifs, buts and maybes, and she has also not been missed in the market, most importantly.

Indeed, the Sportsbook opened up on Thursday morning with her as the 11/43.75 favourite, and that is with a probable Rule 4 to come (Soprano is 3/14.00). She is 9/25.50 plus on the Exchange, though.

Ascot - 14:25: No bet

I will make the 1m fillies and mares Group 3 at 14:25 very simple. No bet.

If pushed, I thought Vetvier did exceptionally well to win over 7f at Carlisle last time and is clearly a progressive filly, who will be suited by this mile, but this is much stiffer company and a price of around 9.08/1 on the Exchange is only fair.

York - 14:05: No bet

Let's hope we can find a fresh bet at York, but it was never going to be in the 19-runner jump jockeys' 5f handicap at 14:05.

The 0-80 "Nunthorpe" indeed.

The story here is Paul Townend riding Eye Up Its Maggie, and this horse was actually available at 33/134.00 with the Sportsbook earlier in the week.

She is now just 8/19.00 and you can see why there has been money for her, not least because she is ridden by the best National Hunt jock in the field.

She has plenty of course form and has slipped down to a mark of just 78 (she was 85 after winning at Doncaster five starts ago) but do you really want to be betting her at 8/19.00 in a race like this, with pace all across the track? Let's not forget she has finished last on her most recent two outings.

Also, be aware the 8/19.00 chance Count D'Orsay is due to run at Yarmouth on Thursday night.

York - 15:15: No bet

I also won't be playing in the five-runner Sky Bet Stakes at 15:15, as I think My Prospero is likely to bounce back from a modest run in the Prince Of Wales Stakes (when very weak in the market. But I can't touch him at 5/42.25 against three decent rivals and a visored-first-time Checkandchallenge.

Sure, he is an unpenalised Group 2 winner who sets the standard on his Champion Stakes third, but everything is about price and I'd want nearer 2/13.00 after that Ascot run. He may be shades of Al Aasy last week, you never know.

York - 14:40: Back Aberama Gold

So that leaves us with the 6f handicap at 14:40, a race in which the pace map suggested two were of particular interest.

The 25/126.00 chance Manila Scouse could get a solo on her part of the track in three, but Aberama Gold could get a perfect tow into the race from his stall in 12, given the other pace angles in the race are drawn 9, 10, 13 and 14. It looks an ideal set-up.

Danny Tudhope kicked for home too soon on this horse on his debut for the yard at Ayr last time, trading at 1.664/6 when scooting clear 1f out, only to be picked up by four others close home who had all been ridden far more chillier from the rear.

Connections must have been delighted to see him dropped 1lb for that hugely promising run, and he is down to a mark of just 88. He was rated 103 in his heyday, and he is also a Listed juvenile course winner with loads of big field handicap form here. Hopefully, the 3lb claimer on him will bide his time and pounce later here.

He is 2lb lower than when just beaten 1 ½ lengths in this very race last season and he is ground versatile, so Wednesday's 8mm of rain is no hardship to a heavy ground winner who has also won on a quick surface.

Back him at 9/110.00 each-way, four places, with the Sportsbook.

I think he goes off clear favourite. I know it's a sprint handicap, and Frankness cost me dear when seemingly very similarly solid at the 6f July meeting (he was a colossal drifter there, so I went in again unfortunately), but he surely must go very well with a clear run in this.

Good luck.