Saturday Racing Tips: Tony Calvin backs Yanifer to outrun 33/1 in Lincoln

• Three bets from TC for Saturday at Doncaster

• 33/1 e-w shot is easily best bet in Lincoln

• Pair to back in the Spring Mile at 14:25

The professional, ever-positive TV track walkers won't need to consult their thesaurus for variations of the theme lush as they tread the Doncaster turf on Saturday morning.

In a searingly honest update on Thursday morning, the course issued the following statement, a warning I guess, with their going description:

"Soft, Heavy (in places). The ground is safe and perfectly raceable given it is soft, heavy in places but, sadly the grass covering is not as uniform or where we want it to be aesthetically in all areas of the track."

Numbers stand up despite rain

In truth, the track has had problems with the grass cover and growth for years now, but at least it hasn't deterred field numbers for the Lincoln meeting.

Indeed, the races have held up pretty well from the five-day stage, despite the above and the fact that Doncaster got another 5mm on Wednesday night, with maybe another 8mm and more to come - maybe less - before race-time on Saturday afternoon.

Work on the basis of heavy ground, and it could be a case of "find the grass" come the end of racing. No racecourse drugs jokes, please.

I will comment on the betting wisdom of showing the Brocklesby on ITV shortly, especially when a very good Doncaster Mile at 16:10 could easily be broadcast in its place, but here is an illustration of how well (considering the going concerns, anyway) the five-day entrants have stood their ground.

There were 69 in the 150k Lincoln on Monday, with a maximum field of 22 allowed, and only Tacarib Bay, Brunch, Saga and Koy Koy forfeited the opportunity of a guaranteed run in the race (they were in the top 22), allowing Revich, Helm Rock, Majestic and Yanifer into the main contest.

That hopefully will be hugely significant come 15:40 on Saturday.

Sod's Law that Tacarib Bay was my main fancy for the race (though I didn't back or tip him on Monday as he was double-entered, underlining once again why you must fight shy of siding with horses ante-post that have more than one option) and he lines up in the Doncaster Mile later in the card instead, along with fellow Lincoln defection Brunch.

That Listed race probably should have been on ITV instead of the Brocklesby to maximise betting turnover - how can you punt in a race of 18 unraced 2yos? - but it has attracted just seven runners, so maybe not in this instance.

Anyway, on to the Lincoln at 15:35.

Lincoln 33/1 shot is easily best bet

If the positives were not already plentiful for Al Mubhir, then we found out on Thursday morning that he has also had a wind op since we last saw him smash up a field at Haydock last season, so there really is very little to dislike about his claims.

Other than his price.

The fact that William Haggas was very keen for Ryan Moore to ride him (Moore has to ride at Saint-Cloud on Saturday) also tells a story of its own. He could well hose up.

But you don't need me to inform you that he, and the likes of market rivals Awaal, Atrium, Wanees and Baradar, have strong claims - as well as the gossip horse Jimi Hendrix, fairly priced at 14/1+ on the Betfair Exchange - as their odds are there for all to see in this 22-runner heat.

I like Wanees most of those that head the market, but Yanifer was comfortably my idea of the best bet at the current prices. I bet connections couldn't believe their luck when he sneaked into the race on Thursday morning.

He clearly stays a mile and handles bad ground well, but I am still a bit worried about the combination of both here, though not sufficiently enough to put me off backing him, even if the 40s was annoying cut into 33/1 on Thursday afternoon.

He was a hugely progressive horse last season, improving from a mark of 71 to 92, and among his successes he could number a course win and a soft ground victory at Catterick on his final start. Indeed, Timeform called it heavy that day.

And he ran a race full of promise on his return in the Lincoln Trial at Wolverhampton just over a fortnight ago.

Drawn widest in 13, he was immediately switched inside to get cover, pulled his jockeys' arms out when he tried to settle him, and then gave the outside to no-one from halfway.

To be beaten just five lengths, at odds of 66/1 (and a whopping Betfair SP of 186.66) , in the circumstances augured very well for his chances of outrunning his odds here.

There is not a lot of pace on here so a reversion to his usual prominent racing style could pay dividends.

Back Yanifer at 33/1 each-way, five places, with the Betfair Sportsbook. In truth, any 25/1 or upwards appeals. He is currently 42.041/1 on the Betfair Exchange if you want to look to back him win-only there.

Go well, Doddie

There were 25 in the Brocklesby (13:25) on Monday and we are down to 18, but that is a very impressive tally, nonetheless.

Dominic French Davis had three Amo Racing horses in here on Monday, and he relies on just Valadero, the 2/1 favourite.

The decision of that demanding owner outfit to send expensive youngsters to this trainer is a curious one, as French Davis has no real record of note with 2yos, but it is good to see the lesser yards get a chance with these expensive sorts.

French Davis had a 300,000 euros purchase and a 150,000gns Profitable colt in here on Monday so, given their 2yos are normally revved up for their debuts - Amo Racing won this race with their subsequent Coventry second Persian Force last year - it is probably significant that they rely solely on their £250,000 Starspangledbanner colt Valadero. The betting thinks so anyway.

It is all total guesswork though, even before factoring in the surface, but I will be rooting for Doddie's Impact without a financial interest. He is named after Doddie Weir, the Scotland and British Lions rugby great, who died from Motor Neuron Disease last year.

Go well, Doddie. If he is anything like his namesake, he will be a tall, gangly, scrawny thing, with more than a hint of character, that has taken time to fill his frame. A gallivanting Giraffe, as Bill McLaren may have said.

Being a touch more serious, I thought 33/1 chance Charged Up in trap 10 was half-interesting as he would be a relatively expensive purchase for Ollie Pears (a small stable with three winners already this year) including at 32,000 euros.

He is by Expert Eye out of a dam who showed her best form on her only start on soft ground when winning the Listed Radley Stakes at Newbury at two for Marco Botti.

But I am obviously not betting in the race.

Titian fits the bill

I am going in two-handed in the Spring Mile at 14:25 though in the shape of Titian and Dirtyoldtown.

You could argue that you want a fit horse proven over further in these conditions, and Titian fits that bill if you were to do so.

He has run two good races on the all-weather of late, most obviously at Wolverhampton in February but he wasn't given a hard time of it at Newcastle last time, and he is now only 3lb higher then when winning over an extended 1m2f at York in October.

He actually won over 1m2f here on soft ground off this mark when trained by Haggas in 2021 (he also finished a good over this trip for him at this track a year earlier) and he looks too big a price to me at 16/1+.

There is some pace high but I want to be drawn low to middle, so his draw in 10 looks fine. Back him at 17.016/1 or bigger. The markets will beef up as time progresses, but 16/1+ is the price I would want on the Betfair Exchange, win-only. Any 14/1 for each way punters with an extra place would be fair.

Get Dirtyoldtown onside too

Dirtyoldtown is drawn in two and, while he has a different profile to Titian - he hasn't raced since September and he has no form beyond a mile- I want him onside, too.

Back him at 13.012/1 or bigger. I expect you'll get bigger on Exchange, as he is 12/1 in most places in the wider marketplace (Sportsbook are looking to duck him for now at 9/1).

He sluiced up on the only occasion he has encountered soft ground. He ran an excellent race first time up last season when a narrow second over 1m at Musselburgh (next-time-out wide-margins winners Desert Angel and Atrium were in third and fourth).

He had the misfortune to bump into one of those mustard Godolphin horses in first-time headgear over 7f here last season.

He races in his own initial headgear here, in his case blinkers, and obviously his trainer thinks they will help him, though to be fair he appeared to do little wrong in close-finish losses at Musselburgh and here though.

I am not too worried about his stamina in the ground, as his dam was Listed-class over 1m2f and he is a half-brother to some middle-distance horses, but it could be a factor, I guess.

I don't have a betting opinion in what looks an exceptionally trappy 12-runner Cammidge Trophy at 15:00 - 5/2 favourite El Caballo is the form horse and he could get an uncontested lead, and stablemate Fast Response is a dual course winner on heavy ground, but it's a tough race to call - so over to Kempton.

Mar to come from promising one at Kempton?

I am not going to waste my time or yours discussing the small field races at 14:05 and 15:15, but I thought the tricky Al Marmar could just be the sort to benefit from first-time cheekpieces in the 1m handicap at 14:40.

He flattered to deceive a couple of times after winning at Ascot in July (his first start after being gelded) and he ran poorly on his return at Newcastle.

But the Geordie track is not for everyone, he at least was dropped 1lb for it, and this half-brother to some very smart sorts (most notably That Is The Spirit) has often shaped as if a fair bit better than a mark of 89, most obviously at York last August.

If Oisin Murphy can get a decent position from stall five and keep him interested, settling him not far off likely pacesetters Brains and Stockpyle, then he may finally deliver on all that promise.

However, I was decidedly underwhelmed when the Sportsbook made him a 9/2 chance, along with most other books - I wanted 8s and upwards - so just the Donny bets for me.

Good luck.