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TC gets straight to the point with Kempton tip
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Backs former winner in big race (it's not Cap Du Nord)
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Previews racing at Newcastle and Lingfield too
Clondaw Castle appeals as the best bet on a very tricky, limited, punting day in the big 3m handicap chase at Kempton at 15:00.
Back him at 8/1 each way with the Betfair Sportsbook, four places. I will be doing that and also pressing up with a win-only bet on the Betfair Exchange at 10.09/1 or bigger.
Don't get me wrong, it is a competitive handicap all right, as it should be with over 85k to the winner, but it really should have more depth to it.
A feature of recent seasons have been that these uber-valuable handicaps not coming close to filling, so just 13 runners (there could be a maximum field of 20) is again disappointing. Some of these races are worth a lot more than the Cheltenham Festival handicaps, so go figure.
Clondaw could usurp Cap
However, you can at least make a case for every one of the Baker's Dozen (I wonder how many youngsters are aware of that term?) and last year's winner Cap Du Nord, backing up quickly from Ascot last week, has an obvious chance and the ante-post shortener Saint Calvados and double-digit poke Flegmatik have clear claims off their falling marks, too.
Even though he is effectively 8lb higher than for his 7-length Ascot romp last Saturday (Frodon's participation means that he is one of four in here out of the handicap), and you don't know how much that would have taken out of him, I'd rate Cap Du Nord the most likely winner and he'd me my clear favourite.
However, I wouldn't have another former winner of this race, Clondaw Castle, that far behind him in the betting, so he gets my vote.
He is back on the same mark as when winning this race in 2021 and he returns to handicap company for the first time since too, a grade in which he has a superb record.
His handicap chase form figures read 521291211.
Make him a bet on Sportsbook and Exchange
He has been campaigned in Grade 1 and 2 company since his win in this race two years ago, and he certainly looked to shape well enough when second to Pic D'Orhy on his first run since the 2021 Betfair Chase in the Silviniaco Conti Chase last month.
He also used that Grade 2 as a springboard to winning this contest in 2021.
Now, he is an 11yo and clearly has had his problems of late but his trainer was delighted with that comeback run, saying the "old zest was there" in an obscure interview I found online. It certainly looked that way given the manner in which he finished off his race after the last.
He will get his favoured good ground here too, and there is also plenty of pace anticipated here, which suits his closing run-style.
Tom George has had a very quiet season (in this country anyway) but he has a better chance of landing this sizeable pot with another stable oldie, following the 12yo Bun Doran's win at Sandown last week, than his current odds imply.
I would make him a bet at 7/1+, fixed-odds and on the Betfair Exchange.
Henderson filly will need to perform well
Some good horses have the won the Adonis Hurdle at 13:50 on their debuts in recent years, including a subsequent Triumph Hurdle winner in Zarkandar, so it is not out of the realms of possibility that Nicky Henderson can take this with his Pawapuri, a lightly-raced, 85-rated filly off the Flat.
But this race has depth, if no clear stand-out, and she will need to be a fair tool to be winning this, even in receipt of the weight.
I was tempted by Perseus Way at 7/1+ but I finally decided it was too tricky for me and the UK's chances of winning the Triumph Hurdle will pretty much end here if Joseph O'Brien's Nusret, stuffed behind Lossiemouth and Blood Destiny on his last two starts, chins these.
Someone thinks he will as the opening 5s about him on Thursday morning was quickly snapped up, and he is now into 10/3, having hit 4s and 7/2 on the way down, with the Sportsbook.
I thought the seven-runner Dovecote Hurdle at 15:40 was pretty unappealing from a betting point of view too, though Imperial Bede and Ukantango were not that bad a price at around 11/2+ on the Betfair Exchange - I may dutch the pair but it really will be a minimal interest only - and for once I was tempted to have a bet a novices' chase.
Dats a bet but not a tip
The horse in question is Datsalrightgino in the Grade 2 2m4f110yd contest at 14:25, available at 3/1 with the Betfair Sportsbook, and a similar price on the Betfair Exchange (currently trading at 4.216/5).
The classy Boothill could take some whacking here but he does have a 5lb penalty and he does move up in trip, which may not be ideal for him. Sure, he has handicap hurdle form over the distance, but he looks more of a two-miler to me.
Conversely, Datsalrightgino improved a good deal when stepped up to this trip in a good handicap at Cheltenham last time, running a stormer to finish second to the live Turners hope Stage Star, with the third 10 lengths away, and he would have got even closer had he not stuttered into the last two fences.
He actually finished an admittedly flattered ¾ length second to Boothill over 2m at Newton Abbot in October - very flattered, in fact - and he is 2lb better off here, so I did actually back him at 3s on Thursday afternoon.
However, I wrote this column on Thursday, and decided to sleep on the content overnight. The following morning, I decided his ability to reproduce his form right-handed is a concern, and maybe his jumping will cause him grief, too. And all five do have their chances in this, too.
I obviously hope he wins, and I won't be trading out, but I decided the pull the tip and have a re-write.
If the price isn't right...
Newcastle's 15-runner Eider Chase at 15:25 is a classic example of having to walk away when the prices aren't big enough. Odds dictate everything, and or else we'd be all be tipping the favourite in every race.
So what do we make of the 11/4 quote for Kitty's Light?
I can only assume the BHA handicapper responsible for staying handicappers is Welsh or likes boy-band long hair, as Kitty's Light had been dropped 12lb this season, and now finds himself 11lb lower than second to stablemate Win My Wings in the Scottish National last year. And 13lb lower than when a good third in the bet365 Gold Cup in April afterwards.
He showed a bit more at Kempton last time, and that was the race that set him up nicely for big handicap seconds at that track and the Ayr run last season. The stable is showing definite signs of emerging from the doldrums, and not just with Cap Du Nord's win last week. Three of their other last seven runners have finished second.
He is still only seven and must have a huge chance, but backing 5/2 pokes in big, staying handicaps in which you have to negotiate 26 fences, as well as better 14 rivals, is not for me. And he doesn't have any course form, either.
Unfortunately, the other two I liked, Bavington Bob and 2021 winner, mudlover Sam's Adventure, have also been well found in the market this week, so if the prices aren't right then you have be honest with yourself and to sit it out.
Before I move on to Lingfield, I should mention the ground at Newcastle is good to soft and they were still watering on Thursday, to the tune of 5mm, with a little rain due on Friday and Saturday. It may be softer than people are imagining. But, then again, maybe not. You know what watering is like.
Punt without favourite in Winter Derby
On form, Lord North should be 1/2 tops in the Group 3 Winter Derby at 14:05 but he is already nudging towards 4/5 on the Betfair Exchange. On top of that, who knows what he will hit pre-race if he has been left seriously underdone before a trip to Dubai once again (he was beaten in this race last season before dead-heating in the Group 1 Dubai Turf, though a reproduction of his second to Alenquer would probably suffice here).
If you are betting in the race, take him out of the equation altogether and punt in the Without Favourite market and maybe Foxes Tales could be of interest on this line.
Fresh seems to the best time to catch this quirky (I am being charitable) sort and he has been gelded since we last saw him too, so perhaps he is the call without Lord North. Unfortunately, the Sportsbook haven't released their W/O prices yet, so I can't tip, but the only firm who have make him 15/2. That kind of price seems fair to me.
I was going to have a tiny nibble on last year's winner One Night Stand in the 5f Listed race at 13:30 as I thought he shaped well enough over 6f on his return here earlier in the month.
But this forward-goer does have a lot to find on official figures, he does have pace competition from three others, and the stand-out 33s and 25s about him went on Thursday (I flagged him up on the Racing Only Bettor podcast in the afternoon), so I have decided against putting him as a selection.
I make no apologies for picking my battles carefully this weekend and I think someone said there is a big meeting coming up shortly, so save the betting tank for that.
Good luck.