Saturday ITV Racing Tips: Tony's Calvin's 22/1 and 8/1 bets on Shergar Cup day

• 10 races on ITV Racing on Saturday afternoon

• Tony's invading Ascot with a 23.022/1 tip

• Our man also has a 8/19.00 bet at Haydock

Just the 10 ITV races from four different tracks on Saturday, with the Shergar Cup at Ascot topping the billing numbers-wise, but the other three courses provide the class with Group contests.

Someone pointed out to me on Thursday morning that the going stick reading of 4.7 on Ascot's round course didn't exactly tally with their going description of soft (good to soft) - historical readings suggest that is basically heavy - so keep an eye out on the weather. The going stick hasn't been updated on Friday morning as this piece went live.

There is nothing much due, merely spits and spots for the next 24 hours (maybe up to 2mm), but it can change dramatically, as we all know. The straight course (going stick reading of 5.9) is quicker.

Quick update as of Friday morning: the round course is 5.1 and the straight track 6.0.

Ascot - 13:35: No Bet

I am a bit of a Shergar Cup tipping virgin, so treat me gently.

I am not sure about the two reserves in each race still being possible runners an hour before the off time is at all punter-friendly (and, therefore, resulting Rule 4s, so some of the prices on offer are not what they seem), but let's crack on in chronological order.

First up is the Shergar Dash at 13:35, a race in which the Sportsbook are paying four runners, which is decidedly fair in a 10-runner heat. Generous, in fact.

The quick answer is I am not having a bet at the current prices (see the note at the end of this piece, mind you) as the layers are fully aware that Tis Marvellous, winner of this race in 2018 and 2021, will be of interest to punters, especially as he is seemingly well drawn in 12 of 12 (effectively 10 of 10, and my pace map suggests that could be very handy) on the near rail, and this is the time of year he comes alive in.

He needs a few runs to put him straight and he has fallen to a mark of just 102, but guess how many of his 39 rivals he has beaten this season?

Yes, you, the spotty one at the back, top marks.

None.

I can fully see the historical case for him but at the Sportsbook's 5/16.00?

Na. That said, the firm that went 7/18.00 on Thursday morning promptly got their arm bitten off (well, mildly chewed) and 11/26.50 is the best around.

It is a very tricky card, all told.

Maximum 10-runner fields, with Rule 4s to come on top as the bookmakers have to price up the two reserves - I really can't stress the latter point enough, as all punters and tipsters are not playing at the odds on show - doesn't lend itself to many ricks.

Or Wallers (he is of 90s Pop Idol fame), as Dan Barber would say.

Ascot - 14:10: No Bet

I couldn't see much pace in the 2m handicap at 14:10.

Law Of The Sea normally goes forward but I couldn't touch him after a dismal effort at Goodwood last week, so maybe Alright Sunshine, under racing's latest up-and-comer in the jockey ranks, Saffie Osborne, is interesting off a rapidly-falling handicap mark of 94.

I liked The Grand Visir most as he has loads of Ascot form - he ran a cracker here when second in the Queen Alexandra in June and he did well from the off the pace at Goodwood last week - but I was certainly looking for bigger than the Sportsbook's 5/16.00, even if he is predictably bigger on the exchange.

Ian Williams (six from 63 with this option since 2009) tries him in first-time blinkers.

Ascot - 14:45: No Bet

The locusts descended on the Sportsbook's opening 6/17.00 about La Yakel in the 14.45 - though one firm actually went bigger at 13/27.50 early on Thursday afternoon - and he was half that price a couple of hours later.

You can certainly see it, but not at 3/14.00 and Youthful King probably interested me most at around 12/113.00 on the exchange as I can see him getting an uncontested lead.

But he is 7lb higher than when dotting up at Windsor and he does seem ground-dependent (he loves it fast), so he may be one for the day when we know how the land truly lies on that front.

Ascot - 15:20: No Bet

I wouldn't be in a mad rush to oppose Perotto in the 15:20 if the ground does continue to dry out, though there was a definite "Difference Of Opinion, Geoffrey" about him on Thursday afternoon (one for us oldies, that).

The Sportsbook wanted no betting traffic whatsoever on him at 13/82.63, but he was as big as 11/43.75 elsewhere.

However, I thought The Wizard Of Eye did shape very well when sixth off a 2lb higher mark than this at Goodwood last week, a race in which I tipped him at a big price, and he probably did so off a less than ideal track position, too.

He was another to have the layers at loggerheads on Thursday , with 13/27.50 playing 12/113.00 in places.

If you can get near the latter price on the exchange, then The Wizard Of Eye is a bet at 13.012/1 or bigger given his back-class in Group company, but I'll sit tight for now.

Ascot - 15:55: Back French Invasion

Hands up, I may have had a very minor part in all of the 33/134.00 and 28/129.00 disappearing about French Invasion on Thursday for the 1m4f handicap at 15:55, but he remains a small-stakes bet at 23.022/1 or bigger on the exchange.

He is also 22/123.00 with the Sportsbook.

I wouldn't chase him down to lower than 20/121.00 given the doubts, or he could easily be a big drifter on the day given his profile.

Now, Frankie may have bottomed him totally when going from the front on him on dire ground at Goodwood last week, and by all accounts we are dealing with a weak 3yo still filling into this frame here, but it is worth taking a risk at the price.

There was apparently some outlandish Derby talk about him over the winter after he won his first two starts, and he certainly has a Group-race pedigree, being a half-brother to Raheen House among others, but then he blew out at Southwell and then was beaten 94 lengths at Goodwood.

But he finds himself off a mark of just 82 here on much better ground - he was dropped 3lb for that run last week - and he is worth a small-stakes, win-only investment in the hope that Goodwood hasn't levelled him for the season.

I would say connections must think he has come out of the race well, but the Johnstons just find out on the track.

Ascot - 16:30: No Bet

As with Perotto, I wasn't overly-prompted to take on the winning machine that is Quinault in the 6f handicap at 16:30, even if I would give up my right arm before backing him at the Sportsbook's 6/42.50.

Okay, maybe my left.

Sure, he is 7lb higher than for winning by a nose last time, but the runner-up came out and won a Listed race by 3 ½ lengths in France next time, and it really isn't hard to see him notch up win number seven on the spin here.

Batal Dubai could give him something to think about, though, and he is the each-way angle against the favourite at 13/27.50 or bigger.

Haydock - 14:25: Back Hafeet Alain

Like many other people, I thought Bodorgan was a winner in waiting off a mark of 87 at the start of the season but he just hasn't delivered, and I thought they may have decided to try him in blinkers here (Haydock, 14:25) after his run at Newmarket last time. That run screamed as if something was not quite clicking,

Alas no, and the handicapper has also been very stubborn in only dropping him a mere 2lb for his three runs this season.

I can still see him going well at around 13.012/1 on the exchange as an aggressive ride from the front could see him to very good effect, especially if it rains - one forecast has 14mm landing at Haydock through Saturday - but I thought Hafeet Alain was a very solid each way proposition at 8/19.00 each way, five places, with the Sportsbook.

Very solid.

He has gone up 7lb for his recent Newmarket win and his subsequent narrow second at this track on his last two starts (the winner was an excellent third of 20 in the Golden Mile at Goodwood next time off a 3lb higher mark), but he is still 3lb lower then when a good fourth at Kempton in January.

He is one of a number of forward-goers in here, which is a concern, but he is drawn well in six to mix it from the front.

I actually thought Connor Planas looked relatively weak when I saw him ride Starlust at Goodwood but everyone else says he is good value for his 5lb claim (and I am terribly ignorant of a jockey's worth) so let us hope he is right. He has certainly done nothing wrong on Hafeet Alain on his last two starts, and everything well.

He is riding a ground-versatile horse who has won on fast and soft, so the weather can do what it wants.

There is a little bigger out there, but I'd be backer with the extra place at 7/18.00 or more.

Haydock - 15:00: No Bet

A seven-runner Group 3 at 15:00 didn't augur too well for me as regards finding a bet, but two angles interested me.

Regular readers will know the first-time cheekpieces on Charlie Appleby's King Of Conquest is of obvious interest (the trainer is 37 from 120 with this option since 2016) and I love the Roger Varian to Karl Burke trainer switch of El Drama.

Now, Varian is a recent Classic-winning trainer and he added another Group 1 race to his haul last week, but he operates at a very poor 15 per cent strike rate this season (very poor indeed, given his bluebloods).

Burke, who does equally as well with a lesser calibre of horse, has a very live one on his hands in the shape of El Drama, who looks like a Group 1 ½ performer at his best , and he is probably no 15.014/1 chance here at his peak and with the change of scenery.

However, I'd be slightly concerned about the trip for him in this grade if they did get all that rain, so I will decide whether to back him on the day when I know how the weather is shaping up.

Newmarket 15:40 & Curragh 16:40: No Bets

Zero punting interest for me in the Sweet Solera at Newmarket at 15:40, and I also have no betting opinion in the Phoenix Stakes at 16:40 at the Curragh, though I can see why the early 6/17.00 about Givemethebeatboys apparently attracted a bit of interest.

By the way, please do check out Twitter Spaces at 8am on Saturday morning as I, and Betfair's Ryan McCue, will be doing a live 30 minutes show on the latest betting moves - and basically everything you need to know - on the day's racing in a bang up-to-date manner.

Going updates, stats, fresh bets at live prices etc. Maybe even some of the horses I have mentioned above, like El Drama.

So follow the Betfair Racing Twitter account to see that, or check out my timeline for the relevant info.

Let's just hope that I can work the tech, which is no 1.011/100 poke....

Have a good one.