Newmarket July Festival Thursday Tips: Tony Calvin likes cut of 8/1 Frankness's jib

• TC's on all four ITV races at Newmarket

• 8/19.00 Frankness is bet of July Festival Day 1

• 25/126.00 Rousing Encore cannot be ignored

I was surprised to see that ITV are only covering four races from Newmarket in what appears to be a 150-minute show on Thursday - normally they throw in a couple of contests from the away meetings - so we could be in for some meaty previews and features.

Actually, I don't think many punters would complain if ITV came off air after the third race as the 125k Princess Of Wales's Stakes at 15:35 is a touch too dull for my liking.

It attracted only six entries last week and four of those were Godolphin-owned, Charlie Appleby-trained horses. It's exactly the kind of race that should be culled at the five-day stage, if you ask me, though I appreciate it is sponsored by the Kingdom Of Bahrain, so it would still be on terrestrial if it was a walkover.

Anyway, we will get on to that race in a moment, as we need to do our usual ground chat before we kick on.

Expect good ground if rain holds off

Because of an improved weather forecast on Tuesday, the course decided to water to the tune of 10-12mm today (Tuesday) and that is not ideal as it simply adds another level of doubt to betting that punters do not need.

The July course's going descriptions are highly questionable at the best of times (and I appreciate the decision as to whether to water is difficult given it is a three-day meeting and the pressure trainers put on clerks), but I am going to proceed on the basis of good ground.

There is also 5mm forecast on some sites on Wednesday, though.

I'd rather I knew it was unwatered good to firm and not be guessing, but there it is.

That's where we tend to be at these days, but Andrew Cooper has done good work at big meetings at Epsom and Sandown this season, as has William Derby at York, so a minimal-watering balance can be struck.

Newmarket - 15:35: No bet

Anyway, we may as well start with the four-runner Princess Of Wales's Stakes at 15:35.

Appleby runs two of his four, Adayar and Global Storm, and they are taken on by Israr and Grand Alliance.

Adayar is obviously the one to beat and I do get that any race featuring a Derby winner will appeal to some. But do you want to back him at the Betfair Sportsbook's 1/21.50 in a race where his penalised stablemate Global Storm (burdened with an extra 3lb courtesy of his Group 2 win at Meydan in March) may get an uncontested lead and Israr will probably be ridden to sit and pounce on him late on?

And a win for the outsider, Grand Alliance, talented but wayward, isn't totally out of the question, especially if it rains significantly on top of the watering. Though he handles quick ground, just fine.

I won't be having a bet in the race. Good luck if you are.

Newmarket - 13:50: No bet

It's not really my kind of punting ITV card to be honest - three relatively small-field Group races and a 6f handicap - but the Bahrain Trophy at 13:50 does feature the Sportsbook's 5/16.00 St Leger second favourite Tower Of London, the stable selected from Aidan O'Brien's three from the five-day stage.

This race cut up from 13 to six at the overnight stage but at least five have a realistic chance of winning.

Tower Of London is now really beginning to fulfil the abundant promise of debut win last summer, and he could not have been more impressive when winning the Ulster Derby over this trip last time.

I know that was a handicap success off 99 but he absolutely danced in and the time and form (the fourth, Young Ireland, went on to finish a much-improved second to Espionage at Roscommon next time) looks strong to me.

He is also a brother to 2017 winner Capri, and another good grinder in Cypress Creek, and he looks a stayer firmly on the up.

I think he is much the likeliest winner in here but I am not playing at the odds, as I do respect Saint George, whose Queen's Vase second is the strongest piece of form coming into the race. Three others are certainly not no-hopers, with Castle Way the probable pace angle.

Land Legend, from last year's winning stable, caught everyone's eye in the King George V handicap, as he got stopped when finishing strongly up the far rail - he would have gone very close - but that came off a mark of just 89.

Newmarket - 14:25: No bet

Juvenile races rarely float my boat and the money will be staying in the pocket for the Group 2 July Stakes at 14:25. It is just too difficult to call.

We have three unbeaten colts up against the stand-out form horse, Norfolk runner-up Malc (not a bad price at around 5.04/1 on the Betfair Exchange), and some others looking to bounce back from disappointments, notably Maximum Impact, who was last in the Windsor Castle after being sent off at 7/24.50.

Perhaps the latter resented the first-time tongue-tie he wore at Royal Ascot as it is left off here.

Throw in Aidan O'Brien's Mountain Bear, much improved when winning at the Curragh last time, and there is just too much guesswork at play here.

Newmarket - 15:00: Back Frankness

I am going in two-handed in the 6f handicap at 15:00, though Frankness stood out to me as the best bet. She is generally available at 8/19.00 but I'd make her favourite at a couple of points shorter.

Interestingly, Andrew Balding won this race for owner Jeff Smith with fillies Foxtrot Lady in 2018 and Dancing Star in 2016 and I reckon he has another live one on his hands with another female in Frankness (Smith and Balding also have the gelding Desert Cop in here).

Ground-versatile and a good third here on her debut last season, she absolutely bolted up over 6f at Goodwood (admittedly not a great race) before being dropped down to 5f for the first time at Royal Ascot.

While it would be stretching it to say she was unlucky not to win there, she must have gone very close had she not had the door slammed in her face 1f out, given the way she then regrouped and finished off her race to be beaten under six lengths.

Back up to 6f, and just 5lb higher than Goodwood - incidentally Dancing Star also won that very Goodwood race before obliging here - I really like the cut of this Frankel filly's jib. Back her at 8/19.00 each-way, five places, with the Sportsbook.

Her draw in 17 of 17 could have been better, but there is pace nearby in 11, 12 and 14, so hopefully she will be okay on that wing.

The fact that Harry Davies, on board for her last three runs, rides Desert Cop doesn't bother me at all.

Newmarket - 15:00: Back Rousing Encore

I am not letting Rousing Encore, drawn nearby in 15, go unbacked either.

I did my money on him at York, when he went off at an incredibly weak 73.151443/20 on Betfair, but at least he showed some more dash for 4f there before dropping away, and I am hopeful that a gelding operation and a rapidly falling handicap can spark last year's Mill Reef runner-up back to life.

A mark of 94 now obviously, seriously underestimates his juvenile form and, at the price, I have to give him one more spin after the cojones have come off.

Two firms early on Tuesday made him a 40/141.00 poke - a price that was taken, although 33/134.00 is still knocking around - but the Sportsbook are 25/126.00. He could easily go off at 50/151.00 plus on the Exchange given the doubts and his profile, but a win-only bet at 26.025/1-plus there is the recommendation.

Obviously take a bigger price if you can. I'll settle at Betfair SP, as per usual.

By the way, if you like to back well-handicapped horses, Animate is 3lb well-in.

It may only be a six-runner race but I thought the 3yo 1m Listed race at 16:45 was a cracking contest - it features the return of Nostrum, and exciting talents like Imperial Emperor and Mostabshir - and I would have liked to see it on ITV. That said, I won't be having a bet.

A predictably punting quiet day, but good luck.

Read Newmarket July Cup Ante-Post: Tony Calvin stays loyal to 20/1 Lezoo

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