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Five places on the Sportsbook for Kempton feature on Saturday
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Skelton chasing another big prize with the Lanzarote favourite
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Alan Dudman delivers his 1-2-3 for the latest Big Race Verdict
Coral Lanzarote Hurdle, Kempton Saturday 15:17, Live on ITV Racing
A change at the top of the market
Earlier this week when the Sportsbook went up with Lanazarote prices, French Ship was the favourite at 4/15.00, now fast-forward through the storms and wintery elements and Dan Skelton's A Pai De Nom holds the princely position at the top of the market with the exciting Philip Hobbs' hurdler out to 5s.
The other noteworthy missive from the week was the fact Harry Cobden rode French Ship last time to win, but Captain Teague held an entry, which he is now taking up. Cobden rides Captain Teague who is now 16/117.00 from 20/121.00 and Callum Pritchard rides French Ship.
It's worth noting that in his exclusive column for Betfair, Paul Nicholls has stated that Captain Teague will only run if the ground is soft, and that if he doesn't run then Cobden will switch to one of the stable's other runners, Just A Rose, who has shortened from 25/126.00 to 18/119.00.
Each-way support also for Beat The Bat 10/111.00 into 15/28.50 and Double Powerful 16/117.00 into 14/115.00.
A reminder too that the Sportsbook are paying each-way down to fifth spot.
The best form claims
Dan Skelton has the form in the race having landed the last two editions of the Lanzarote, and that perhaps explains the movement regarding A Pai De Nom's new position in the betting having usurped French Ship.
He's the only one with a Timeform small 'p' in the field and having won a Conditional Jockeys' Race at Cheltenham in a big field, his switch back into novice company last time at Leicester was all very straightforward and from a mark of 124, you'd think he'd have plenty in hand.
Plus Skelton is one of the best target trainers in the land.
French Ship has shown his hand already to a greater extent, and with an official rating of 146 either Philip Hobbs is confident he has a potential graded horse on his hands, or a handicap mark for a Festival race could be blown. I was thinking 146 would have been a nice spot for the Coral Cup.
A win in this, and will Hobbs think about something grand? I'd suggest Mr Hobbs.....The Stayers. Johnson White could perhaps use his persuasive skills and run with the bigger dogs.
The French Ship victory at Newbury from 136, 10lb lower than Saturday, was one that oozed a bit of confidence and the way he picked up again in the straight, it suggested to me he had plenty in hand.
He ticks a lot of boxes as a strong traveller, excellent handicap form and and proven in soft at a trip.
Teague could be very well treated
Paul Nicholls has three in the race and the former Champion trainer has enjoyed success in this race in the past with three wins, including Modus, his last winner, back in 2017.
Captain Teague could be the best handicapped horse in here from 139 as a former Challow winner as a novice when rated 140, and when winning that Grade 1, he beat none other than The Jukebox Man.
Since then, The Jukebox Man has gone onto greater things, while Captain Teague might be in danger of losing his military rank. Not quite a Private yet, but a bad performance on Saturday puts him into Grunt territory.
His absence of 407 is the big concern. But enough from me, read what Nicholls has to say about his chances in the race in his exclusive blog here.
Trainer form going into Saturday
Philip Hobbs and Johnson White last 14 days: 3-12 at 25% and Kempton last five years 6-55 at 11%.
Paul Nicholls last 14 days: 10-37 at 27% and Kempton last five years 37-202 at 18%.
Dan Skelton last 14 days 14-60 at 23%, and Kempton last five years 23-155 at 15%.
Nicky Henderson last 14 days 2-24 at 8% and last five years at Kempton 45-202 at 22%.
Harry Fry last 14 days 2-5 at 40% and Kempton last five years 6-24 at 25%.
Ben Pauling last 14 days 4-28 at 14% and Kempton last five years 16-71 at 23%.
Jonjo O'Neill last 14 days 6-38 at 16% and Kempton last five years 4-42 at 10%.
Harry Dereham last 14 days 3-25 at 12% and Kempton last five years 8-27 at 30%.
Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies last 14 days 1-16 at 6% and Kempton last five years 4-71 at 6%.
Tactics and pace map
FRONT RUNNERS: Goodwin.
PROMINENT: French Ship, Captain Teague, Beat The Bat, Lanesborough?, Wreckless Eric, A Pai De Nom, Fasol, Yellow Star.
MID-DIVISION: Double Powerful, Wreckless Eric.
HOLD-UP: Double Powerful, Lanesborough?, Wreckless Eric, King Of The Lake, Iberico Lord, Ike Sport, A Pai De Nom, Came From Nowhere.
Summary:
My calculations leads to Goodwin as potential the only front-runner, and considering he's a 20/121.00 poke on the Sportsbook, the back-to-lay trade using the Exchange should set up a nice play early in the race.
Is there an each-way play with the five places?
Double Powerful's jumping has become a task laced with jeopardy with two unseats and fall next to his name and a disastrous chasing campaign.
Neil Mulholland's seven-year-old however did finish third in a Class 1 Hurdle at Aintree from 131 in the spring and might suit coming back down in trip from the 3m he attempted briefly last time at Cheltenham. He didn't last long as was hampered early.
With a Timeform rating of 150 and as a progressive horse last term, it's easy to see why the 16/117.00 was taken into 14/115.00 on the Sportsbook.
Clearly Captain Teague on his novice hurdle form shouldn't be a big price, or as big as he is, but the absence worries me, likewise trainer form for Henderson and Twiston D.
Goodwin purely on the basis of having a lead in front and all the main players hot on his tail in behind might be interesting and at 20s is another potential each-way.
Alan Dudman's 1-2-3 Lanzarote Verdict
1) French Ship
2) Goodwin
3) Double Powerful
I am sticking to my guns with French Ship and Johnson White, assistant to Minehead's finest said after his Newbury win: "He's been put up 10lb, which is quite a hike, but equally it was a very strong performance.
"A mark of 146 means we're either towards the head of the weights in good handicaps or he makes the leap into graded company, he's in that territory now."
I do think he has the potential to be a graded horse, while A Pai De Nom could be well treated, and he looked good at Cheltenham, but he's a little short in the market considering he hasn't achieved as much as French Ship.
Double Powerful on last term's Aintree run is a big price and Mulholland is operating at around 18% from the last two weeks.
Back French Ship in the 15:17 at Kempton on Saturday